World

Owen Matthews

A grim turning point has been reached in Russia’s war on Ukraine

An important turning point has been reached in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But unfortunately for Kyiv, it’s not the “tide is turning” in Ukraine’s favor narrative that Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing ever since his long-range drone attacks began smashing oil refineries and logistics warehouses deep inside Russia and sinking dozens of ships in the Sea of Azov. Rather, last night not one of the 27 ballistic missiles fired by Russia at and around Kyiv was shot down. At least 17 people were killed and a series of huge warehouses and major Ukrainian retail outlets were devastated. No grain vessels have docked for almost two weeks as Ukraine's summer harvest season enters full swing By the terrible arithmetic of war, the casualty numbers were not in themselves game-changing.

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Jim Lawley

Pedro Sánchez is stubbornly clinging on to power

With Spain still reeling from the extraordinary scenes in Ceuta, the country's Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has decamped to La Mareta, the government’s palatial retreat on Lanzarote. Before beginning his holiday, he made a brief visit to the exclave, where, according to Madrid, some 72,000 migrants crossed from Morocco and the local authorities say 88 bodies were recovered. Nearly a week later, Ceuta’s government says 3,000 to 5,000 migrants remain; Madrid puts the figure at 2,500. Around 400 are still living on El Trampolín beach, sheltering under blankets and makeshift structures. Food and water are now being distributed, but provision has been patchy: some say they went up to five days without food. Sanitation remains rudimentary.

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Owen Matthews

Two wars are becoming one

Alarmed western observers are warning that the wars in Ukraine and Iran could merge into a single region-wide conflict. Ukrainian drones struck an Iranian oil platform, a Russian missile boat, and sanctioned cargo ships in the Caspian Sea late last month. But in truth, Kyiv has regarded Iran as a combatant in the Ukraine war since the summer of 2022, when the first Shahed drones arrived in Russian-occupied Crimea and Kherson. These drones were accompanied by instructors from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who trained Russian operators in their use. Moreover, this was not even Ukraine’s first strike on an Iranian target in the Caspian.

Philip Patrick

America can’t let the Japanese yen fail

In an extremely rare bilateral move, the US and Japan have intervened to shore up the Japanese yen, which has been steadily losing value and sliding towards a 40-year low. The news was confirmed by the Japanese Finance Ministry this morning. President Trump preceded the announcement by explaining that the US was “always there to help Japan.” In truth, there wouldn’t have been much point in denying it – a Reuters photo showed a memo on US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Beasant's desk with the simple instruction “To Do – Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) 5-10 billion.” The dollar fell to 157 yen after the announcement, well down from the 164 (considered by Morgan Stanley the highest tolerable point for the Japanese government) of the previous week.  This is an extraordinary move.

Ukraine

Charles Lipson

Will the wars in Ukraine and Iran merge?

This is a fraught moment, perhaps the most dangerous since the end of the Cold War. Two major wars are being fought, one threatening European security, the other the world’s energy supply. In East Asia, China continues to threaten Taiwan, and North Korea is reportedly upgrading its military technology with Russian help. Put simply, the bad guys are on the march, fighting for their regimes’ survival, their malign domestic projects, and as much regional domination as they can achieve. Although the wars in Ukraine and Iran have remained largely separate, there have been several intersections recently and a gnawing fear they could merge into a global conflict. That grim possibility is still a longshot, but there is real danger because the coalitions fighting the two wars overlap.

DC
Bartek Staniszewski

How Poland and Ukraine can repair their broken relationship

Poland was once a staunch ally of Ukraine. But President Zelensky's decision to name a unit of the Ukrainian Special Forces after the “Heroes of the UPA” appears to have shattered the relationship forever. Help may be at hand, though: in the form of the humble British historian. Others want Poland to go further: there are calls to close the border with Ukraine While Polish and Ukrainian politicians have their own agendas and aren't trusted by the other side, some British historians have near-mythological status in eastern Europe.

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Lisa Haseldine

Russia is relying on drones to bring it victory in Ukraine

Earlier this week, Ukraine was subjected to one of the largest aerial assaults by Russia since the start of Vladimir Putin’s invasion over four years ago. Overnight from Monday into Tuesday, Russia sent 73 missiles and 656 drones into Ukraine, killing at least 21 and injuring dozens across the country. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, this strike was retaliation for a Ukrainian attack on a vocational school in the occupied region of Luhansk on May 22. But, as the Kremlin’s war grinds on well into its fifth year, it also appears to signal a step change in how the Russian armed forces are choosing to fight.

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Israel

Jonathan Spyer

Can Israel fend off Hezbollah without alienating America?

As the 60-day period of negotiations stipulated by the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US gets under way, the issue of Lebanon is fast emerging as a central bone of contention. It is also revealing significant differences in the stances of America and Israel.   Israel has sought throughout to detach its battle with the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon from the negotiations – and from the larger effort to settle the conflict between the US and Iran. The logic is as follows: Hezbollah intends to continue its war against Israel.

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Ben Clerkin

Israel is the new Ukraine

J.D. Vance didn't call Benjamin Netanyahu out by name, but in sternly reprimanding the "Cabinet of the Israeli government" from the White House podium on Thursday, he sent Israel and its Prime Minister a clear message. In demanding more respect, raising the threat of severe consequences and ordering the country to get in line, the Vice President echoed the public fight he picked with another world leader and US ally: Volodymyr Zelensky. It wasn't quite as spectacular as the now infamous Oval Office blow up in February last year between Trump, Vance and the Ukrainian president. But Vance went further in his criticism of Israel than any other US President or Vice President in recent memory.

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Ben Clerkin

Is Trump going to defund Israel?

Cutting US military aid to Israel was once an impossible dream of the most extreme fringe of the Democratic party. Today axing the $3.8 billion annual package is a bipartisan issue being spearheaded by the GOP. The number of free US tax dollars that Israel would receive to spend on its military under a GOP plan being discussed by both governments would be reduced to zero. The brainchild of Marlin Stutzman, a staunch Israel ally and Republican congressman from Indiana, the proposed memorandum of understanding, which would come into effect when the current deal ends in 2028, now forms the basis of the negotiations and was endorsed by Benjamin Netanyahu.

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America

Europe

Gavin Mortimer

The Ceuta chaos could make Marine Le Pen president

European Union interior ministers will hold an emergency video conference on Tuesday to discuss last week’s events in Spain's North African enclave of Ceuta. More than 60,000 Moroccans surged across the border, and although the majority have returned the invasion has traumatized many member states. Italy and Denmark initiated the meeting and soon had the support of twenty other EU countries. In a letter to the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the 22 leaders declared: “We have a duty to effectively deter and relentlessly combat illegal migration, by coordinating our action, strengthening our external borders and addressing all policies that can serve as pull factors.

Brendan O’Neill

We should call the Ceuta border breach an invasion

Spain was invaded yesterday. There is no other way to put it. Close to 50,000 foreigners, mostly men, swarmed into Spanish territory and laughed and jeered as they went. Every generation before ours would have called that an invasion, and we should too. The era of euphemism is over. The left’s house of lies has fallen. We can all now see with our own eyes that our nations are being overwhelmed by cocky, often hostile men from afar. It isn’t only Spain’s sovereign integrity that lies in tatters following the storming of Ceuta – so does the tyranny of euphemism we’ve all been forced to labor under these past few years The footage from Ceuta is extraordinary – throngs of foreigners, mostly men from Morocco, gatecrashed an enclave of the Spanish kingdom.

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Jim Lawley

Spain’s response to wildfires has been infuriating

From my home in Ávila I usually have a splendid view of the ancient town’s medieval walls. But yesterday morning the wind changed direction and they were largely obscured by a pall of wildfire smoke. The town hall issued health advice and recommended closing windows. But I’m among the fortunate. Everyone in Burgohondo, 25 miles south of Ávila, has been evacuated. It is the village my wife’s family comes from, and where the fire started. Across the region, tens of thousands have already been forced to leave their homes. And the forecast is ominous. Last year I suggested that Spain’s summer fires are made so frequent and destructive by long, hot, dry summers and by rural depopulation, with the resulting abandonment of farming and grazing.

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Saturday

David Goodhart

Ceuta should be a wake-up call for Europe

The scenes at Ceuta are eerily reminiscent of aspects of the infamous anti-immigration French novel, The Camp of the Saints by Jean Raspail – in which Western countries are overrun by mass immigration from India.  They also illustrate Europe’s recent asylum crisis in a nutshell. A “luxury belief” ruling by liberal Spanish judges making it harder to deport people, a surge of people from a poor or middle-income country that the authorities in the receiving country are unwilling to resist with force, while the authorities in the sending country are either indifferent or happy to cause their neighbor political discomfort. It has echoes of the Syrian surge in 2015 and the explosion of small boat Channel crossings after 2018.

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Friday

Michael Evans

Will Hamas really disarm?

No one imagined that Hamas would voluntarily hand over its weapons and turn to politics and peace in the Gaza Strip. Even when President Trump announced his Board of Peace and 20-point plan toward a settlement to end the war with Israel, the sticking point, every analyst insisted, would be the disarmament of an organization designated a terrorist group by the United States, Britain, the European Union, Australia and many other nations. It’s unlikely that Hamas will cooperate unless Israeli troops withdraw as per the agreement Now, after months of negotiations – involving Trump’s two Middle East envoys, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey – and without any fanfare, the seemingly impossible has been achieved.

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Wednesday

Ivor Ichikowitz

Why young Africans like Trump

Washington keeps asking why it is losing Africa to China. I commissioned a survey of nearly 5,000 young Africans to find out what they don’t like about America, and the answer is uncomfortable. America has not been losing because young Africans prefer Beijing. It is losing because previously it would not stop lecturing a continent that has outgrown the lesson. Last week the Pew Research Center reported that, for the first time, China is viewed more favorably than America across much of the world. Our numbers say the same about Africa. But they also say something Pew did not capture: the race is far from over – and President Trump, of all people, is the reason why they could still win it. Young Africans want to deal with Trump for the same reason they will deal with Xi.

Tuesday

Douglas Murray

The problem with the Ann Widdecombe suspect’s ‘fair trial’

It’s hard to hold anyone responsible for anything today in British politics. That’s because no sooner have the facts emerged than everybody in Westminster has played another game of musical chairs. If the word “amusing” can be used in the same paragraph as “attempted beheading” allow me one amusing example. In June, a 30-year-old asylum seeker from Sudan allegedly attempted to behead a local man on the streets of Belfast. It was apparently caught on video. Everyone was geared up to make their points. The left was preparing to argue “So you’re saying all asylum seekers are beheaders, are you?” while the right was gearing up to say: “We must hold people accountable.

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Monday

Alexander Larman

There’s only one reason Meghan Markle went on MasterChef Australia

Picture the scene. You have bravely battled onto the set of MasterChef Australia, hoping that your strawberry pavlova or similar hero dish is going to be the one that sends the judges into gasps of culinary ecstasy. Then the producers and host smile conspiratorially at you and reveal that the stakes (as opposed to steaks) have been raised. There will be a guest judge, they tell you, a figure who is “a global icon, a philanthropist, a humanitarian, a woman known around the world for her heart, her voice and her deep love for home cooking”. You draw a deep breath. Who on earth is this multi-faceted hyphenate, you wonder, an all-in-one combination of saint, queen and legend?

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berlin pride
Brendan O’Neill

We should politicize the Berlin Pride attack

Of all the platitudes trotted out after an Islamist attack, the maddest has to be: “Don’t politicize this tragedy.” The bodies of our fellow citizens are barely cold before we’re being pre-emptively told off for “exploiting” their deaths for “political ends.” But it’s already political. When a religious hysteric takes up arms against innocents, that’s a political attack. ‘Don’t be divisive’ is a demand for self-censorship masquerading as a plea for social peace The “no politics” rule was swiftly enforced following the atrocity at Berlin Pride. The minute it was announced that the suspect was an ISIS fanboy known for mingling with other Islamists, the cry went out: “Don’t politicize this. Don’t let it divide us.

Nicholas Farrell

Why this wasn’t Italy’s George Floyd moment

For a brief moment I thought that the death this week in Bologna, Italy of a Moroccan, face-down on the tarmac, after being restrained by not just one but two police officers sitting on top of him, might provoke a similar explosion of outrage as the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis. The next night there was a riot in Bologna during which the rioters brandished placards claiming that the death of Abderrahim Fakir, 42, was an “omicidio di stato” (state murder), chanted “assassini” at the police and attacked them. The police retaliated with tear gas and water cannons as the rioters torched cars and smashed shop windows. Sixty-four police officers were injured.

Friday

Tim Shipman

Andy Burnham’s centrist act isn’t fooling anyone

When Ed Miliband and Shabana Mahmood arrived in Downing Street on July 20, the image of political rivals arm in arm symbolized a new government of differing views taking shape. It might have been more awkward. As they neared the door of No. 10 and the waiting television cameras, Miliband turned to Mahmood and asked: “Should we turn around for a photo together?” Mahmood gave the idea short shrift: “We’re not getting married, Ed!” But in a sense, Labour is seeking a new relationship with the British public – and everyone around Andy Burnham is alive to the importance of images, symbols and vibes. As Wes Streeting, the new Defense Secretary, put it in cabinet the next day: “We have a second chance to make a first impression with the voters.

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suit andy burnham
Madeline Grant

Mr. Burnham, put on a suit and tie

A brass fanfare; a wide establishing shot of five men in three-piece suits, seated in a library of leather-bound tomes – this is Harold Macmillan doing informal. The scene is from a 1959 party political broadcast, which purports to show a “relaxed chat” between Macmillan and four of his ministers, all of whom he refers to by their cabinet titles. Almost everything about it is artificial (including quite possibly the claim that it took place the day after the parliamentary recess). Watching it now is a reminder of two things, perhaps contradictory. First, that prime ministers have always played a clever and not entirely authentic game when it comes to informality; second, how far we’ve fallen. Can you imagine the equivalent today?

Joshua S. Treviño

America must rediscover statecraft

The Prime Ministerial tenure of Andy Burnham was not 24 hours old before the report came that he would allow American use of United Kingdom bases – most crucially in Diego Garcia – for “defensive” strikes on Iran. The qualifier is so expansive as to be meaningless except in the realm of legal technicality: the United States’s war against the Islamic Republic rests in no small part upon British goodwill. It is not, of course, the first time that Britain has lent its capabilities to war in the Middle East in which the Americans are involved. The Royal Air Force was active in downing Iranian drones sent against Israel and Qatar, at the least, at various points in 2024, 2025, and 2026. The RAF joined the United States Navy in strikes on Yemeni positions in spring 2025.

Thursday

John Power

Is Ed Miliband preparing to take on Donald Trump?

Just one day after Ed Miliband was made UK Foreign Secretary we heard in the Telegraph that the White House is upset about the appointment, and even warned against it. Donald Trump is apparently unimpressed by Miliband’s role in blocking North Sea oil drilling. Miliband has also railed against Trump in the past, calling him a “racist, misogynistic self-confessed groper” on the BBC’s World at One in 2016, as an example – but in fairness his predecessor David Lammy called Trump “beneath contempt” before he became foreign secretary. Trump can forgive and forget – so long as his interlocutor is willing to forget their own pride. Miliband could bend the knee, but there is also some appetite to confront Trump.

ed miliband
Gary Dexter

The rise of Japan’s organic right

Sanseitō is a new right-wing Japanese party. The name means the “Party of Participatory Politics” or “Do-It-Yourself.” It was founded in 2020 by some disgruntled political YouTubers and gained national fame in 2022 when its founder, Sohei Kamiya, won a seat in the House of Councillors. Sanseitō now has 30 seats in the Diet. The party is nationalistic, proposing much stricter immigration controls under the slogan “Japan First.” It is broadly anti-vaxx. It opposes same-sex marriage and supports nuclear-weapon sharing with the United States, while Kamiya has repeatedly promised the party “would not sell out Japan to Jewish capital.

Paul Wood

The strange death of Islamism

Iranians have adopted a new sport in the past few years: knocking the turban from a passing cleric’s head. There are points for technique and for how high and how far you can get their headgear to go. These are small acts of revenge against a hated religious elite who came to power on a wave of arrests and torture and who, as recently as January, ordered thousands of peaceful protesters to be shot in the streets. It’s also a symptom of something larger. Political Islam is in retreat across the Middle East and the wider Muslim world. “The strange death of political Islam” is an idea that’s in the air at the moment. Rule by clerics, and by others who claim to speak in the name of God, is going out of fashion in the Islamic world.

Freddy Gray

The radical left-wing takeover of the Democrats is nearly complete

Tuesday August 4 could prove to be a turning point in American political history. If Democratic primary voters in Michigan choose Haley Stevens, a moderate, as their Senate nominee, the party establishment should stagger on, perhaps up to and beyond the presidential election of 2028. It’s more likely, however, that the Democrats will elect Dr. Abdul el-Sayed, a pro-Palestine radical who supports Medicare for All and the abolition of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. El-Sayed’s victory would confirm that the hard left is the coming force in national politics, and suggest that the long-anticipated socialist takeover of the oldest party in the US – the party of Andrew Jackson, Harry Truman and Bill Clinton – is finally under way.

Wednesday

Gavin Mortimer

Macron won’t stop at a social media ban for children

France has become the first European Union country to ban social media access for under 15s. The National Assembly passed a Bill Tuesday evening that will prevent children using platforms such as TikTok and Snapchat. The Bill also bans the use of cell phones in high schools. In a message on X, a jubilant President Emmanuel Macron hailed the legislation and expressed his gratitude to MPs, who approved it by 279 votes to 81. “It’s up to the Constitutional Council to rule, then on to action to make this measure concrete and protect our children online,” he said. Macron would like the legislation to take effect from September, the start of the new school year, but first the Bill will be examined by the Constitutional Council, the highest constitutional authority in the Republic.

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Xi Putin
Mark Galeotti

China has Russia over a barrel

Vladimir Putin just can’t keep away. Having visited Beijing in May on the heels of Donald Trump, it has been announced that the Russian leader – who has been to China more than two dozen times during his tenure as president – will lead his country’s delegation to the 33rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November. This apparent sign of amity, though, is actually an expression of Russia’s growing dependence on China – and Putin’s growing frustration with its refusal to green-light a new gas pipeline project.

Tuesday

Peter Hitchens

Who believes the latest version of the Nord Stream saga?

If you want to start a myth, make it a good one. Look at Odysseus. Imagine if the old liar had come home stony broke, a decade late, and told his wife: "Sorry, Penny, I got drunk, the ship was repossessed and the crew deserted, I gambled away all my money and I’ve spent the last ten years working in bars to pay my passage home." The tale would not have endured. Penelope would probably have kicked him out and married one of the suitors. It’s more or less the same with the unmysterious sabotage of Russia’s Nord Stream pipeline in September 2022. There’s a perfectly good, prosaic, obvious explanation. The giant undersea tube was able to supply cheap Russian gas to Germany, something the US government has disliked for decades.

Matthew Fraser

My Paris neighborhood has become a no-go zone

When I moved into Paris’s seventh arrondissement, I was not expecting to find myself living in one of the city’s dreaded no-go zones. My neighborhood, admittedly, is not one of the notorious districts on lists of forbidding no-go zones in the French capital’s bleak north end, plagued with crack houses and criminal gangs. I live in one of Paris’s poshest areas. The seventh arrondissement is known for its burnished boulevards and grand monuments. Every morning, I walk my two dogs on the Champ de Mars in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower. Le Point magazine observed that “France is dishonored by the state of the Champ de Mars” World famous for the annual fireworks display to celebrate Bastille Day, the Champ de Mars boasts a glorious past.

Monday

Jawad Iqbal

Andy Burnham’s good vibes just won’t cut it

Andy Burnham became Britain's Prime Minister today – the seventh leader of the country in the last decade. It is a case of all hail the new messiah, who promises to build “a new politics” (the eternal empty vow of every politician when taking power), but this time with a shiny new twist. Burnham, who oozes a desperate desire to be liked, will lead a government focused on good vibes and the fantasy of a mythical Labour paradise lost, rather than anything grounded in the harsh political realities of today. His approach to power boils down to trusting his instincts (those vibes, again), based on the delusion that he has a special connection with ordinary voters.

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Andrew Collingwood

There is no alternative to the Strait of Hormuz

As a UFC aficionado, President Donald Trump might know what a twister is. It works by cranking the victim’s head one way while controlling his hips in the other. Apparently, the pressure that this places on the spine is agonizing, leading to a rapid tap out or life-altering injuries to the back and neck. In the Middle East, the President finds himself in a geopolitical twister. On the one hand, Iran’s Memorandum of Understanding terms are too unpalatable for President Trump to swallow – crystalizing as they would an unambiguous defeat, with all the strategic and political consequences that that would entail. On the other, the US Air Force has been unable to suppress or interdict Iran’s missiles and drones.