Owen Matthews

A week after Donald Trump was greeted in Beijing by well-orchestrated crowds of flag-waving schoolchildren, it was Vladimir Putin’s turn to pay a visit to China’s Red Emperor. Protocol-watchers spotted a distinctly lower level of pomp and circumstance afforded to Putin than to Trump – though Kremlin media were quick to emphasise that this was a working meeting, the latest of over 40 Putin-Xi summits over the last two decades. Both sides paid formal homage to the ongoing strength of the Dragon-Bear alliance. Xi observed that relations between Beijing and Moscow were at ‘the highest level of comprehensive strategic partnership’, as he called on both countries to oppose ‘all unilateral bullying’ in the international arena.

A year ago, Russia marked the 9 May Victory Day celebration with a spectacular display of fireworks that lit up the Moscow sky. This year the fireworks have again been spectacular – but this time they have been caused by long-range Ukrainian attack drones slamming into refineries, pumping stations and factories deep inside Russia. In the Black Sea port of Tuapse, fireballs of burning gasoline 15 storeys high erupted over the local oil refinery, while rivers of burning fuel ran down the city’s streets. Firefighters took three days to extinguish the inferno, which created a plume of smoke so high it was filmed by skiers from the slopes of the Caucasus mountains more than 60 miles away.

Ukraine and Russia are exhausted. Neither side is close to defeat and yet discontent is growing on both sides. In Russia, open criticism of the regime is spreading. Social media influencers have, bizarrely, led the charge. In Ukraine, fury is directed at press gangs who hunt down young men and force them, often violently, into the army. Today, the chances of some kind of political crisis in either Kyiv or Moscow seem more likely than a great breakthrough on the battlefield.  In Russia, there was a rare example of the Kremlin responding to criticism earlier this month when influencer Viktoria Bonya posted an Instagram video addressing Vladimir Putin. “The people are afraid of you, artists are afraid, governors are afraid,” she said. “There is a big wall between you and the people.

After Iran unleashed a torrent of missiles against its neighbours – including those with whom it had enjoyed friendly relations such as Turkey and Azerbaijan – few regional leaders are in the mood to congratulate the new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Few, but not none. ‘At a time when Iran is confronting armed aggression, your work in this high office will undoubtedly require great courage and dedication,’ wrote Vladimir Putin in an official message of congratulation to Khamenei Junior. ‘I am confident that you will honourably continue your father’s legacy and unite the Iranian people in the face of these severe trials.

With the exception so far of a single missile intercepted over Turkish airspace and a strike on an Azeri-controlled territory near the Iranian border, Tehran has so far declined to mess with the Turks, and for good reasons. Turkey is a member of NATO and attacking it would trigger Article 5 mutual defense measures. And it is NATO’s leading member, the United States, which is attacking Iran in the first place. A more serious restraining factor is Turkey’s own large and highly effective army – and its proven willingness to use it against weakened neighbors. Over recent decades Ankara hasn’t hesitated to send troops and launch bombing raids into both Syria and Iraq, occupying border regions when it decides that Turkey’s internal security is threatened.

The Russians are on the warpath – and Europe is Vladimir Putin’s next target. That was Sir Keir Starmer’s alarming claim at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month. Britons ‘must be ready to fight, to do whatever it takes to protect our people, our values, and our way of life’, Starmer warned. Britain and Germany’s top military commanders delivered the same message in a recent article. Russia’s military posture ‘has shifted decisively westward’, wrote Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton and General Carsten Breuer. Soon the Kremlin ‘may be emboldened to extend its aggression beyond Ukraine’. Really? According to much western coverage in mainstream and social media, the Russian army is crumbling, corrupt and inept.