World

Wednesday

John Lough

The Iran war won’t help Russia defeat Ukraine

For Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump is the gift that keeps on giving. Just as Moscow was tiring of the American president’s assurances that he could strong-arm Volodymyr Zelensky into accepting Russia’s terms for peace in Ukraine, the US-Israeli intervention in Iran caused a spike in the oil price. This has given Russia the chance to supply more oil to the global market and boost its flagging budget revenues. On balance, the war in the Middle East is set to bring significant benefits for Russia, but they will not be enough to bring about Putin’s most urgent desire: the defeat of Ukraine. Of course, the Russian president can bask in the

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Roger Kimball

Dinner in Tehran, anyone?

Who wants to join me for dinner in Tehran or Havana? I suspect that both will be open for business very soon. I suppose we could even go to Caracas. As I write, the American flag has been raised at the American Embassy there for the first time in seven years. Amazing, isn’t it? And in Cuba? In mid-March, protesters were setting fire to the office of the Communist party in the town of Morón in the Ciego de Ávila province. Elsewhere across the island, protesters were in the street shouting, “Down with communism!” The nervous Cuban government released dozens of political prisoners. Since Donald Trump cut off its supply

Kevin Toolis

A child soldier and Iran’s cult of the suicide bomber

On the outskirts of Tehran, deep within one of the largest graveyards in the world, Behest-e Zahra, is a singular tomb, a shrine to a 13-year-old Iranian child soldier Mohammed Hossein Fahmideh. It’s a tomb which holds a warning about the American war with Iran. Fahmideh was killed in October 1980 during the first battles of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, a bloody conflict, costing over 500,000 lives, between Saddam Hussein and the newly born Islamic Republic of Iran. Fahmideh blew himself up with grenades and explosives trying to stop an Iraqi tank advance. In death, he became something else; a shahid, a martyr, and the beginning of the cult of

Tuesday

Mark Galeotti

The chaotic truth about Russia’s internet blackouts

From the modern metropolises of Moscow and St. Petersburg to Arkhangelsk on the permafrosted northern coast and Khabarovsk on the Chinese border, for over a week now, Russian cities have been experiencing unprecedented interruptions to mobile internet coverage. Ostensibly for security reasons, the rumor mill has inevitably cranked out all kinds of alternative explanations, from fear of a coup to preparations for a comprehensive imposition of state control on the “runet,” Russia’s online world. Notions that Vladimir Putin fears some imminent coup can most quickly be laid to rest. There is dissatisfaction with the continuing war and its economic consequences, but nothing to suggest anything more serious. Besides, one thing

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Jawad Iqbal

Decapitating Iran’s leadership might not topple the mullahs

Iran’s most powerful leaders are being picked off one by one by Israeli and American military strikes. The latest scalp claimed by Israel is Ali Larjani, Iran’s security chief, and widely believed to be the most powerful figure in the present Iranian leadership. The reported killing comes just days after Larjani went on a public walkabout in Tehran, all defiance and bombast as he greeted members of the public during the Quds Day rally last Friday in the capital. Larjani also spoke to state media during the march, claiming that the Americans and Israelis were “running out of steam”. Well, not quite in his case, it turns out. Few will mourn the demise of Larjani.

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Prue Leith

Madagascar offers peace – and lemurs – in abundance

Madagascar, by rights, should be rich and flourishing. It has everything: natural resources, a heavenly climate, picture-book scenery, tropical weather, friendly people. But it is one of the poorest countries in the world – on account of centuries of exploitation, first by the French, and latterly by corrupt elites. With luck, all that is about to change. If the new regime (which came to power in October when a student-led revolution sent the last one packing) can resist the lure of looting, it could just succeed. No jet skis, no music, no bars. Maybe a lone fisherman or a sailboat in the distance As yet the spacious main square of

Freddy Gray

Can anyone beat a madman president?

30 min listen

Freddy speaks to James D. Boys, author of the new book US Grand Strategy and the Madman Theory. He is also a senior research fellow at UCL. They discuss the origins of the madman theory – which applies insights from psychology to understand how your enemies think. James covers it from from Nixon to Trump and its intellectual home in Boston. They also explore how the madman theory is being applied in the Middle East conflict and how regularly the theory can be misapplied.

Adam Weinstein

The illusion of Iranian regime change

Supporters of regime change in Iran have long argued that if the United States and Israel weakened the country’s rulers then the Iranian people would finish the job. But the likely outcome is instead a wounded regime, one that emerges more paranoid, more repressive, and more convinced that only force ensures its survival. Iran has experienced mass protests every two to three years for more than a decade. What often begins as economic unrest frequently evolves into broader anti-regime demonstrations, drawing thousands of Iranians into the streets. People outside the country see these protests and believe they could ultimately topple the government. Such arguments come from parts of the Iranian

Monday

Cockburn

Iran’s first gayatollah?

Something queer’s afoot in the Islamic Republic. As Mojtaba Khamenei was announced as Iran’s new Supreme Leader last week, reports emerged that his own father, the late ayatollah Ali Khamenei, didn’t want him to take power and even went as far as making this explicit in his will, according to the New York Post. Now, the Post reveals that his father’s qualms were over Mojtaba’s alleged sexual attraction to men.  When President Trump was briefed that Mojtaba may be gay, he “couldn’t contain his surprise and laughed aloud” while others in the room joined in his reaction, sources close to the intelligence community and the White House told the Post. It’s an odd turn of events when the repressive theocracy is the

Freddy Gray

Will the SAVE Act pass?

30 min listen

Freddy speaks to Roger Kimball, editor of the New Criterion and Spectator writer, about Trump’s SAVE Act – a bill to tackle voter integrity soon to be voted on in the Senate.

Friday

Freddy Gray

What Signalgate tells us about Iran

Remember Signalgate? It was quite the story, and worth revisiting now in light of Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and its dire implications for the global economy.  In March last year, Donald Trump’s then National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, somehow added Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of the Atlantic, to a Signal messaging group for senior government officials to discuss top secret military action against the Houthis in Yemen. The group included the Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller,

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Thursday

Christopher Rufo

The right’s Israel fracture

As the joint American-Israeli military campaign in Iran continues, President Trump’s coalition is starting to exhibit some cracks. The war in Iran has emerged as a proxy battle over a broader, long-simmering conflict within the right about Israel. And the fight over Israel is, in some important ways, a proxy battle about Jews in general. Big picture, what we’re seeing now is that the traditional divisions on the right between paleoconservatives and neoconservatives, between hawks and doves, are being reshaped into a battle over Israel specifically. It’s a very difficult subject; this issue has become highly emotional and personal for those on both sides, and even in my world, it’s

Maurizio Geri

The Iran war has exposed the world’s maritime chokepoint

The war with Iran is exposing a vulnerability at the heart of the global gas market: the extraordinary concentration of liquefied natural gas supply in the Persian Gulf. Qatar alone accounts for roughly a fifth of global LNG exports, almost all of it passing through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has illustrated how easily a single maritime chokepoint could interrupt a significant share of the world’s gas trade. Even if the war ends soon, the vulnerability it has exposed will not disappear President Donald Trump has suggested the conflict may soon end, describing the campaign as largely achieved and possibly over “very soon.” The Gulf monarchies also appear eager for a quick

Atbin Moayedi

How the Islamic Republic tried – and failed – to destroy Iranian culture

The Islamic Republic in Iran is not only at war with the United States and Israel. For years, the country’s government has been waging war on Iranian culture. Music, poetry, storytelling, dogs, dancing, singing, art, dice and card games, romance, tolerance and the honoring of women are central to Persian culture and its ancient history. Yet under the Islamic Republic, these cherished expressions are banned or stigmatized, especially when pursued by women. The departure of Iran’s enlightened and educated from the country they love is one of the most poignant brain drains in history In the dark, dystopian times immediately following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, couples holding hands or

Wednesday

Freddy Gray

‘We don’t know what’s going on or why we’re doing this’: how Trump’s Iran gamble backfired

“Donald Trump is a complicated person with simple ideas,” said Kellyanne Conway, the former White House senior counselor. “Way too many politicians are the exact opposite.” It’s a good way of understanding the 45th and 47th President and his extraordinary success. His turbulent personality causes mayhem, yet his political aims have remained constant, straightforward and popular. Decades ago, as a New York tycoon with a keen eye on international affairs, he identified three priorities for America: tackle the nation’s trade imbalances, force NATO allies to spend more on defense, and destroy terrorists. When it comes to realizing those simple ideas, however, his more complex attributes emerge. Trump believes in mixing

Douglas Murray

Why is the ‘gay press’ so cowardly on Iran?

Sometimes the obvious is so obvious that people forget to state it. So let me observe one small footnote among recent obvious things. At the end of February, Donald Trump killed the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and most of the senior leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary government in Iran. There are many things to be said against the Ayatollah and his friends. Since 1979 they have repressed the population of Iran and hurtled one of the great civilizations backward by a millennium. From the start of the revolution they have murdered their domestic opponents by the thousands. They have shot students in the head when they came out onto the streets

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Lionel Shriver

Another interview goes awry…

Twenty minutes into what seemed a routine softball literary interview for Bloomberg TV in London last month, the conversation took a prickly turn. My interviewer had tripped across some remark in one of my podcast appearances that set her off. So much for talking about my new novel. For the following 20 minutes, leaning over the table and poking at the air between us, she proceeded to hector me about why I seemed to discuss Muslims in general terms rather than as individuals. I objected that she was being disingenuous. Journalists regularly address issues involving groups of people in general terms. (For an opinion piece, I’m to interview all 2

Francis Pike

Kim Jong-un’s sister or daughter? Only one can survive…

As a birthday treat, a good father might take his ten-year-old daughter to the ballet or a Disney movie. Three years ago, North Korea’s ruling dictator Kim Jong-un (“Brilliant Comrade”) took his ten-year-old daughter Kim Ju-ae to the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile. It was her first public outing. Subsequent kiddie treats have included visits to the mausoleum that houses the bodies of her grandfather, Kim Jong-il (“the Dear Leader”), and great-grandfather, Kim Il-sung (“the Great Leader”). She also got to stand at military parades, inspect nuclear facilities and make an official visit to Beijing. In the North Korean media, Kim Ju-ae is referred to as the Supreme Leader’s

Gavin Mortimer

Revenge of the cheese-eating surrender monkeys

French President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating rose by six points last week. It will likely continue to climb following his visit to the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier on Monday. The pride of the French navy recently arrived in the eastern Mediterranean to protect Cyprus, and Macron was in his element as he strode across the deck of the carrier. A photograph of the occasion appeared in the New York Times underneath the headline: “France Is Sending a Large Naval Force to the Middle East.” The last time there was a great conflagration in the Middle East, France was very much on the sidelines Macron was helicoptered onto the Charles

Mani Basharzad

Why the Venezuela model would be a disaster for Iran

What next for Iran? Donald Trump appears to have a plan: the Venezuela model. The US president has hinted that, just as with the South American nation, he wants to try working with elements inside the existing regime, rather than backing exiled opposition figures. The biggest massacres in Iran’s recent history happened under so-called reformers “We have a formula, Venezuela, smart country,” he said this week. “We’ve taken out 100 million barrels of oil which is now in Houston…being taken care of and made so beautiful in refineries.” But if Trump really is planning on copying his playbook for Venezuela in Iran, he should be warned: it will be a