Vaccines

International travel rules will be relaxed on 19 June as part of the wider scrapping of social distancing rules and masks. Transport secretary Grant Shapps told the House of Commons that those entering England from green and amber nations will not be expected to self-isolate — provided they are fully vaccinated. In practice, what this means is that British summer holidays have been given the go ahead. France, Spain, Portugal and Italy are all on the amber travel list. Currently, the rules state that returning travellers must isolate for ten days, as well as complete a day two and day eight test. That second test has also been scrapped.  The crucial point is that the relaxation is only for those that have been fully vaccinated.

Boris Johnson used today's press conference to unveil the government's plan for stage four of the roadmap. Announcing that the public need to learn to live with Covid, the Prime Minister declared his intention from 19 July to reopen all remaining businesses, lift limits on gatherings and lift the bulk of rules on wearing a mask. While no final decision on what happens on 19 July will be made until next week, Johnson said it was time to move away from 'legal restrictions and allow people to make their own informed decisions'. Although the contents of the PM's statement points towards a big bang reopening, Johnson's tone was rather more cautious.

Boris Johnson has this evening confirmed that he will delay the lifting of all Covid restrictions by four weeks to 19 July. Announcing the decision in a press conference, Johnson said the Indian variant – also known as the Delta variant – has changed the picture and meant the government was no longer able to proceed with the full unlocking plan they had first hoped.  The Prime Minister said two jabs were very effective against the new variant. The problem? 'There are still millions of younger adults who have not been vaccinated and sadly a proportion of the elderly and vulnerable may still succumb even if they have had two jabs,' Johnson said.

The link between Covid cases and hospitalisations has been broken, we keep being told – vaccination having reduced the severity of infections, especially among more vulnerable older groups. It is a point reinforced this morning by Public Health England which reveals that the number of cases of the delta (formerly Indian) variant have increased from 12,431 to 42,323 in a week, but without a corresponding rise in hospitalisations. But how true is it that what looks like a third wave in new infections will not be accompanied by a large wave of hospitalisations? Previous experience with Covid – using PHE data – suggests there is not a very long lag between cases and hospitalisations.

There are two key questions ahead of the 21 June reopening. First, as I say in the magazine this week, there is the issue of how much more transmissible the Indian variant is than the Kent one. According to papers published by Sage, it is a ‘realistic possibility’ that it is up to 50 per cent more transmissible. If the true figure is at the top of this range, then a full reopening would likely lead to another big wave of cases and put pressure on hospitals. But the view in Whitehall is that if it is only 30 per cent more transmissible, then it should be safe to proceed with reopening. More data on this is expected next week. The second question is how many people have had their second jab by then.

What a mess. Ministers have today been defending the decision to place eight areas in what is being called a 'lockdown by stealth', after it turned out that the government had quietly published guidance to slow the spread of the Indian variant without telling anyone in those areas.  That guidance, which pitched up on the gov.uk website at 5.26pm on Friday, told people to avoid indoor meetings and avoid travelling in and out of affected areas unless it is essential. But when journalists from the Manchester Evening News approached local politicians and public health officials, it turned out that they didn't know about this guidance. Which rather begs the question of what the point of it is.

The next stage of the roadmap is set to go ahead. At tonight’s No. 10 press conference, Boris Johnson announced from next Monday, 17 May, groups of up to six (or two households) can meet indoors, while up to 30 people will be able to meet up outside. Face coverings in school classrooms will be scrapped, and there will no longer be a cap on the number of people attending a funeral. Indoor hospitality can reopen, including restaurants and pubs, while hotels, cinemas and theatres can also open their doors, albeit with social distancing still in place.