Vaccines

In the early days of the pandemic, Australia was the envy of the world. The country was lauded as a model of how to handle the virus. Australian states recorded few cases; and when there were outbreaks, authorities brought them under control quickly. All that has changed. Now, well into the second half of 2021, Australia is losing its grip on the virus. While other major cities such as New York, London, and Paris, are opening up, Sydney is under lockdown. Even outside the nation’s major cities, travel restrictions are severely limiting movement for Australians within the country. Australia’s politicians have sought to blame the Delta variant of coronavirus. But in truth, the new strain is only part of the story.

This week, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), which sets the UK’s vaccine policies, recommended that 16 and 17-year-olds be offered the Pfizer vaccine – leading to speculation that the jab could soon be offered to even younger age groups. Speaking at a press conference on the issue yesterday, the deputy chief medical officer, Jonathan Van-Tam, said his sense was that it is ‘more likely rather than less likely’ that the list of children eligible for the vaccine would broaden. It’s an interesting development given that just a fortnight ago the JCVI recommended against vaccinating over-12s unless they were particularly vulnerable to the disease.

Will Britain become the first country in the world to have a large section of its population immunised against Covid-19 three times over — and will that be a worthwhile achievement? The government is reportedly planning to give out booster shots — eventually to everyone over the age of 50 — starting as early as 6 September. This appears to be following the advice issued by the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation on 30 June. If the government tells us we all need an extra shot after so short an interval, might it undermine confidence in the vaccines?

A few days ago, I woke to find myself awash in new recommendations from the CDC. Apparently, because of the dreaded Delta variant, everyone once again has to wear masks in 'high-transmission areas’, even if they’re vaccinated. I looked at the map: 'high-transmission areas’ currently seems to mean almost everywhere but Chicago and Philadelphia, two cities where I once lived but don’t live now. ​This seemed fishy to me. I’m vaccinated. I love being vaccinated In fact, I gorged on cheeseburgers for a week in March to nudge my BMI over 25, so I could get vaccinated early. Meanwhile, the same people who are now expressing ‘rage at the unvaccinated’ were busy lecturing us about ‘vaccine equity’, which didn’t actually turn out to be a problem in the United States.

In the last week, the number of people testing positive for Covid has dropped by 36 percent. A fall in cases following the final stage of unlocking was not what most models had predicted. There are several possible causes for this, including people adjusting their behaviour to avoid being pinged. But one significant factor is that schools in England are now out for summer. When schools do return in September, cases will likely rise. But with an ever-greater percentage of the population vaccinated, this shouldn’t cause too many problems. And the end of classroom bubbles means that whole classes will no longer be sent home just because one pupil tests positive. Life will be far less disrupted.

The great thing about COVID, I like to quip, is that has abolished death from old age. Also the flu. That malady typically claims 30,000 to 40,000 scalps per annum in the US, many more in a bad year. How many flu deaths were there last season? According to the Scientific American, 700. Find yourself in a motorcycle accident suffering the inconvenience of losing your cerebellum and all that other gooey stuff spread like jam over the interstate? Don’t worry. The medics will find an intact nostril and will determine that you tested 'positive for COVID’. What remains of you will be transported to a hospital where management will file a claim and get 15 percent more on their government reimbursement because you 'died from’, or at least with COVID. There are exceptions, of course.

What is the point of the Covid-19 app? Ministers seem to be as in the dark about the answer to this question as the rest of us, with the government tying itself in knots over whether it means anything at all to get 'pinged' and told to self-isolate. Downing Street has contradicted Business Minister Paul Scully, who said this morning that there was no need to self-isolate if it was just the app that alerted you. He told Times Radio:  It seems that there is a genuine schism in Whitehall 'The app is there to give...to allow you to make informed decisions. And I think by backing out of mandating a lot of things, we're encouraging people to really get the data in their own hands to be able to make decisions on what's best for them, whether they're an employer or an employee.

On the day that nearly all legal Covid restrictions go, one could be forgiven for presuming ministers would be in the mood for celebration. Instead the press conference Boris Johnson led this afternoon to mark so-called freedom day proved a sombre affair. The Prime Minister was forced to dial in remotely after having to self isolate as a result of coming into close contact with the Health Secretary last week, who has since tested positive for Covid. From his self isolation, Johnson went on to unveil plans for vaccine passports for nightclubs and contingency plans to keep the country moving as millions face self isolation in the coming weeks.

When the government announced a Commons vote on its decision to cut the foreign aid budget from 0.7 per cent of GNI to 0.5, the expectation was that the vote would be tight. In the end, the government won comfortably: it had a majority of 35. But despite their success, the whips would be wrong to be feeling triumphalist about this, I write in the magazine this week The usual whips’ line — if you keep your nose clean preferment might come your way — is ineffective Twenty-four Tories voted against the government, 14 of which were former ministers. The overwhelming majority of these are either uninterested in returning to ministerial office or are only interested in doing so on their terms.

There is a myth in football that you are always most susceptible to letting in a goal after you have just scored one. It’s probably not true but the idea is attractive. At the peak of our achievement we are vulnerable to complacency. Is a similar thing happening with the vaccine programme? The current prevailing narrative is that the declining rates of vaccination are the fault of the under 30s. Government scientists accept that the country is 'close to maximum take-up', with many young people still hesitant about vaccination, the Times reported this week. But is that right? There is probably some truth to the less-than-urgent demand amongst this lower-risk group. But focusing on uptake among young people alone obscures a more obvious issue.