Theresa may

Why isn’t Theresa May’s conference catastrophe showing in the polls?

After a lacklustre conference and a disastrous speech, Theresa May's position within her party has never looked more fragile. But she can take heart that her relationship with the public is a different story entirely. In a sign that conference is only a headline event for politicos, it appears May's shaky performance in Manchester has meant diddly squat. An ICM poll claims the Tories have actually gained a point from the whole debacle. Even if you combine the three different polls done since the conference – they show a swing between the main parties of... zero. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/917406487936491525 The findings will come as a blow to Parliamentary plotters such as Grant Shapps, who had hoped to use recent events to push May out.

Theresa May should appoint a Secretary of State for No Deal

The Brexit talks collapsing would be a bad thing. It shouldn’t be the aim of the UK government, but it should be something that the government is prepared for. After all, there is a non-negligible chance of this happening. Compounding this is that the United Kingdom can’t credibly threaten to walk away from the table unless it is actually ready to do so. Without the ability to walk away, Theresa May will be left having to accept whatever the EU offers. It’s evident that Britain is not currently prepared for a no deal scenario. There needs to be a massive push if the UK is to get itself anywhere near ready.

The Bombardier dispute could actually bring down May’s government

When governments fall it often comes from an unexpected quarter. Thirty eight years ago, James Callaghan’s government fell not as a direct result of the Winter of Discontent but from the fallout over a failed referendum on Scottish devolution. Over the past week we have heard plenty of speculation about Theresa May losing her job thanks to her cough at Manchester or through Brexit-induced civil war in her cabinet. But could we be missing something more obscure but at the same time more ominous? The more I think about it, the gravest danger to the government comes not from its handling of Brexit, universal credit, inflation or any of the other stories which have dominated the news agenda in the past month.

The rules of the Tory leadership contest make it a wild card to play

The moment Philip May helped his wife from the stage after her conference speech, it became clear that it is only a matter of when, not if, her leadership of the Conservative Party and occupancy of No.10 comes to an end. What happens next? Who knows, but if you understand the rules, it is just possible a sequence of events has started which will ultimately lead to hundreds of thousands of people participating in a three month election process for a new leader. It might even result in a surprising outcome. In other words, a relatively unknown newer MP, such as Kemi Badenoch (Saffron Walden); or Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden); or Rishi Sunak (Richmond, Yorks), being chosen. In the short term, such a contest would mean more uncertainty. It would definitely be a risk.

The three things Theresa May must do

Even loyal Cabinet Minister admit that the Tories can’t go on like this for another 18 months. As I say in The Sun this morning, Theresa May needs to show that the situation is going to improve. I think there are three things that May needs to do. First, she needs to show that she is enjoying the job. Tory MPs are, genuinely, beginning to worry that May’s sense of duty is such that she’ll stay on even if she is being crushed by the burdens of office. Now, those who work for the Prime Minister in Number 10 are adamant that she is relishing the job and wants to stay. But she needs to demonstrate that publicly. Second, May needs a more radical domestic agenda. Even if her speech hadn’t been hit by those three disasters, it would have been inadequate to the moment.

Theresa May’s speech was a dud because Tories can’t do rhetoric

There are many ways to make a conference speech memorable and Theresa May managed most of them. A prankster with a P45, a constant cough and a set that fell to bits as she spoke, the speech was a riot of metaphors in waiting. It may yet be pointed to as a decisive moment in her premiership but it was certainly notable. The only forgettable aspect was the content. When Mrs May tries to inject passion into her voice it is not just the frog that catches in her throat. It is her conservatism. Conservative politician can ascend to the rhetorical heights at time of peril. Winston Churchill, was, as David Cannadine once wrote, both a master and a slave of the English language. In his early years, Churchill had an unenviable reputation for lavish verbosity.

Does the Tory party really want to decapitate itself?

It's taken me a while, but I think I've got my head around this now. Grant Shapps is proposing that the Conservative Party should hold a protracted contest to select a new chief, and thus render itself and the Government of Britain leaderless for several weeks, at a time when the UK economy and public finances are worsening and Brexit talks are going horribly.  And he's doing this because he says the Conservatives need to demonstrate leadership. When you think of it that way, you start to understand the (really rather unkind) things Tory MPs are saying about Mr Shapps today. Not that anyone is saying he's wrong about Theresa May. She's in a dreadful state, the PM. But the brutal truth is that for the Conservatives today, there are no good choices, just degrees of badness.

The best way to learn about socialism is to experience it

I think it's fair to say that Theresa May did not have a cracking conference, but the sympathy vote might even help her. I certainly felt sorry for the Prime Minister, and instinctively don't like the nasty playground teasing from the Men of Twitter. (She does have diabetes, too, which can't help.) But she has to go nonetheless, not because she's unlucky but because she has a tin ear; why else would she choose to raise such issues as racial discrimination in mental health, sores that can't be healed but which invariably paint the Tories as the 'Nasty Party' - a Ratnerism she coined. Ditto with tuition fees.

Friends – or foes?

As the breeze of popular opinion — popularis aura — blows sweetly over the much-loved Corbyn-McDonnell Old Labour tribute act, the Tory party is faced with a dilemma: how to counteract it. This dilemma seems to centre on Mrs May’s leadership, and if that is the case, those ambitious to displace her need to consider what leadership entails. The word for ambition in ancient Greek was philotimia, ‘love of high esteem in the eyes of others’. This was considered a virtue in a society in which competition was endemic and winning meant everything. The problem was the tension between the desire to win and the desire to be liked at the same time: vaulting ambition which o’erleapt itself could soon turn into naked aggression, which won no friends.

Tory MP: May could be PM for another 25 years

Talk of an imminent coup against Theresa May might be somewhat overblown, but most Tories generally accept the Prime Minister won’t be around to fight another election. Not so James Gray. The Tory MP for North Wiltshire thinks May could stick it out for the next five. In an interview with the BBC, Gray said May could go on as Prime Minister for another 25 years: 'She's currently 62, some Prime Ministers have lasted until at least 84 so that gives her 22, 25 years to go...so I very much hope she will continue for many years to come.' If Gray's prediction is correct, it would also make May the longest serving PM ever - six years ahead of Sir Robert Walpole. Mr S thinks it's admirable some MPs are getting behind their leader but still isn't convinced...

Whether Theresa May survives depends on two things

Is Theresa May now doomed after her conference speech went so badly wrong? Tory MPs were yesterday so shocked by all the mishaps that it took them a few hours to realise that underneath all the things that weren't May's fault – such as the P45 stunt and the set falling apart – were a lot of things that the Prime Minister really was responsible for. The speech was not the bold, re-energising address that May needed to give. It contained pale policies which seemed pale red, not true blue. There are ministers who see this as an opportunity to move against their leader. There are Boris allies who have recovered their bewilderment at what their man was up to this week sufficiently to start calling privately for a leadership election before Christmas.

Theresa May’s staff broke all of Machiavelli’s rules

Theresa May must have woken up this morning wondering, for a split second, if yesterday was all just a very bad dream. The front pages will hammer home the reality of her situation – she was 'luckless', says one of the kinder headlines. But I wonder: how much did yesterday's shambolic performance have to do with bad luck, and how much to do with woeful preparation? May's ordeal, and especially her excruciating coughing fits, reminded me of a passage in Jonathan Powell's The New Machiavelli, a sort-of memoir about his time as Tony Blair's chief of staff.

Newsnight’s Tory conference meltdown

After Theresa May's leader's speech fell victim to pranks, health issues and technical glitches, the Prime Minister has received a rough ride in the media. Last night's episode of Newsnight was no exception – the programme promised to 'make sense' of the 'hitches' in May's speech: https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/915679701137575936 Alas Newsnight producers soon discovered that they weren't immune to technical glitches themselves. There were several hitches in the cutaway packages – with Theresa May even labelled as 'Jeremy Corbyn' at one point: Happily, viewers were on hand to remind producers of the irony: https://twitter.com/Tom_Hamer7/status/915695969689317376 https://twitter.com/huwthomas_Wales/status/915700589866180608 https://twitter.

It’s time to call it a day on this Tory government

Some of you may not like this, but the BBC Ten O'Clock News last night was pretty scrupulous in its coverage of the Prime Minister’s speech, and Laura Kuenssberg – not always my favourite news bunny – delivered a very good piece indeed. She trod the line between sympathy, analysis and an acute feeling in the hall, unspoken, that this party, and this leader are most likely not long for this world. Michael Deacon in the Telegraph got it right, too, with his opening line: 'Poor woman. Poor, poor woman.' Yes, quite. None of yesterday's humiliations were really her fault. An arsehole, a deathlessly unfunny self-publicist gurning for the camera with his fatuous little stunt (how the hell did he get there?) and a bad cough.

If only the Tories understood economics

‘I don’t think I’m quite as Austrian as you are,’ a Tory minister said to me the other day. And I knew then that the party is doomed. It wasn’t what he said so much as the way that he said it: in the fond, amused, each-to-his-own tone you might use to dismiss a friend’s enthusiasm for Morris dancing or Napoleonic re-enactment or dogging… But personally, I think free market economics (of the Austrian or any other classical liberal school) is far too important to be left to wonks, think-tankers and out-there right-wing commentators. So did Margaret Thatcher. ‘Hayek’s powerful Road to Serfdom left a permanent mark on my own political character, making me a long-term optimist for free enterprise and liberty,’ she said.

A price cap done wrong can do more harm than good

In her speech today at Conservative party conference, Theresa May announced a draft bill that would give Ofgem full power to impose a widespread energy price cap. Here's what Martin Lewis, founder of MoneySavingExpert.com and cheapenergyclub.com has to say about her proposals.  It’s a national disgrace that a struggling 90 year-old granny pays substantially more to boil a kettle than an affluent web-savvy man like me. However a price cap done wrong can do more harm than good. Some in the Tories have called for a ‘relative’ price cap – which means a firm's most expensive price can only be a set percentage more than the cheapest. That’s self-defeating – it means they’ll just withdraw cheap deals.

The Conservative party’s existential crisis

Theresa May’s conference speech — interrupted by coughing fits and with part of the set falling apart behind her — served as an unfortunate metaphor for her premiership and party. She is carrying on and in doing so, she demonstrates her resilience and sense of duty but also her frailty. The horrified faces of cabinet members watching as her voice dried up on stage seemed to sum up their wider concerns about whether their party is in a fit state to see off Labour, a party they so recently dismissed as a joke. Now, they are left wondering if their party is falling apart. https://twitter.

Theresa May’s British Nightmare

Theresa May is not the first political leader to try to pitch the idea of a 'British Dream' when most British people aren't even sure if it exists in our culture. Michael Howard spoke about it in 2004, while Ed Miliband adopted the 'Promise of Britain' temporarily while he was trying to find his feet as Labour leader. So it's not just the first time that a party leader has tried to talk about the British Dream, it's also not the first time a leader whose authority is shaky has tried to talk about it. As Miliband and Howard showed, the British Dream doesn't seem to stick as a political idea. It certainly didn't work as a theme in May's speech, which turned into one of the unluckiest political nightmares in recent history.

The torment of Theresa May

It’s always easy and usually wrong to describe single political speeches as pivotal or decisive.  Always remember: almost no-one in the real world watches anything except a few clips on the news the evening the speech is given.   The amount of coverage devoted to leaders’ speeches at party conferences is usually excessive, beyond what most of the readership or audience really want or care about. But this one, this one is different.  This really is the crucible, the decisive moment.  Theresa May’s premiership turns on how this is seen. Coughing, stumbling and victim to a brutally effective visual prank by an apparent 'comedian', we have seen a British Prime Minister come as close to the brink of public unravelling as we ever have before.