George Trefgarne

Grant Shapps, the energy secretary, popped up on television at the weekend to explain that the cost of installing a heat pump is only about £3,000, the same as a gas boiler. Hmm. Good luck with that. That number is only true once a £5,000 grant from the government (of which only 90,000 are available) has been considered. It ignores all the costs of insulation and pipework. A friend of mine with a heat pump says about £15,000 is a more accurate number. A lower carbon economy is a good thing, but the Net Zero policy as legally implemented in the UK has been a disaster Inflation, largely a consequence of energy costs, remains the biggest issue not just in Britain but the world right now.

I hate to depress everybody, but the possibility of both a leadership challenge to Theresa May and a general election is suddenly mounting. I don’t believe this is the desired outcome of any of the political factions currently flying under the Conservative party flag, but if things go on like this, it is not hard to see how it might happen. A failure to win Commons votes on numerous aspects of Brexit, notably the Customs Union; a vote of no confidence; Theresa May stepping down or being challenged; a new leader feeling the need for a refreshed mandate; the press and social media howling for this or that; all culminating in a butterflies-in-tummy drive to the Palace.

The moment Philip May helped his wife from the stage after her conference speech, it became clear that it is only a matter of when, not if, her leadership of the Conservative Party and occupancy of No.10 comes to an end. What happens next? Who knows, but if you understand the rules, it is just possible a sequence of events has started which will ultimately lead to hundreds of thousands of people participating in a three month election process for a new leader. It might even result in a surprising outcome. In other words, a relatively unknown newer MP, such as Kemi Badenoch (Saffron Walden); or Bim Afolami (Hitchin and Harpenden); or Rishi Sunak (Richmond, Yorks), being chosen. In the short term, such a contest would mean more uncertainty. It would definitely be a risk.

Almost everything which is said officially about student finances is obfuscatory and contradictory, starting with Damian Green’s assertion at the weekend that we need 'a national debate' on tuition fees, only for former education secretary Michael Gove to say the opposite the following day. A week before the General Election was called, the Student Loan Company announced that it was increasing interest rates from 4.9 percent to 6.1 percent, according to its formula of inflation plus 3 percent. Due to the effects of compound interest, that potentially takes the lifetime cost of a typical student’s debts from around £51,000 to £70,000, according to the calculator on the Money Saving Expert website.

Today, the Succession to the Crown Bill will receive its second reading in the House of Commons. If one had to think of one person who would welcome this plan to 'modernise' the Monarchy, it would have to be that arch-Blairite, Baroness Jay of Paddington. But she popped up yesterday in her capacity as chair of the Lords’ Constitution Committee, to warn of the potential 'unintended consequences' of the Bill and to decry the use of the emergency fast track procedure to rush it through. Surely some mistake? Actually, no. Baroness Jay arguably knows more than anybody about tinkering with the constitution, having made it her life’s work.

Amazingly, the forces of conservatism derided by Tony Blair, are in the ascendant, their enemies scattering and in retreat. Bin Laden is dead, the oil price tumbling, the Royal Wedding was a triumph and now Labour and the Lib Dems beaten at the ballot box. Surely, we tell ourselves, this is an alignment of the stars, a Conservative moment. David Cameron must seize the day, or at least the year, by abandoning the Coalition and calling a general election soon. Landslide, here we go! Hold your horses. Britain’s electoral machinery is off the road, its parts all over the workshop floor. Thanks to the constitutional tinkering of the Coalition, the procedural and practical obstacles to holding a general election in the next four years are substantial and rising.