Scotland

Support for independence is not surging in Scotland

Yesterday was the news that Keir Starmer has agreed to have a face-to-face meeting with John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, following the SNP's strong performance in the local elections. Swinney said that Starmer had agreed over the phone that they would discuss holding another referendum on independence. No. 10 has a slightly different recollection of the call – saying that Starmer made it clear that he would not support another referendum. Nonetheless it would seem that a narrative has arisen that, as Swinney puts it, ‘the momentum is building behind Scotland’s right to decide’. ‘Plaid Cymru and SNP wins leave the UK under threat,’ says GB News. ‘Wales and Scotland turn to independence parties,’ says the Financial Times.

Will Labour ever admit that Scottish devolution was a mistake?

If you believe as I do that political stupidity deserves to be punished, you might take satisfaction from the election results in Scotland. But first, a little history. Almost three decades ago Labour set up the Scottish parliament, promising voters that ‘the Union will be strengthened and the threat of separatism removed’. Just eight years into the devolution experiment, the once seemingly invincible Scottish Labour lost control of its parliament to the SNP. That was in 2007 and the Nationalists have been in power ever since, relegating Labour to the fringes of Scottish politics.  Then, in 2010, the Conservatives came to power.

Will John Swinney do a deal with Scotland’s Greens?

The Scottish National party (SNP) has failed to win an overall majority in the Scottish parliament. With an expected 58 MSPs, it has fallen short of the 65 target which John Swinney said would have been a mandate for an independence referendum – not that Westminster would have authorised one any time soon. However, this is still a good result for Mr Swinney after a pretty lacklustre campaign in which many of his party’s policies – like a price cap on supermarket goods – did not land well. Many forecasters, including Ipsos in the Times, thought he would return fewer than sixty MSPs.

Does Scotland really have too few migrants?

Mairi McAllan, the SNP government’s Housing Minister, Nicola Sturgeon protege, and leader in waiting (according to the gossip), has been lambasted for claiming that Scotland has ‘too few migrants’. McAllan said on the BBC’s The Sunday Show this week that migration was ‘good and necessary for the economy’. In doing so, she sidestepped the self-evident truth that the 4,000 or so asylum seekers who live in Glasgow – the highest figure for any local authority in the UK – are not making a particularly great contribution to the economy. She also brushed over other problematic issues, such as integration, but that’s par for the course with the Scot Nats.

Malcolm Offord and the heresy of achievement

A telling exchange from Tuesday night’s televised debate for the Scottish Parliament elections.  Malcolm Offord, businessman and Tory peer turned Reform’s leader north of the border, confronted Ross Greer, co-leader of the Scottish Greens and quite possibly the next deputy first minister of the devolved government. Reform is promising to cut voters’ taxes while the Greens are practically giddy at the prospect of raising them on ‘the super rich’, which would include Offord himself.  After detailing his background (Greenock tenement, local grammar, Edinburgh Uni) and his rocky entrepreneurial beginnings (he arrived in London 40 years ago, two grand in the red), Offord said: ‘Today, I own six houses, five cars, and six boats.

The Scottish independence lie

For the last 20 years, Scotland has been labouring under a lie. A lie that is so offensive that seemingly no-one dare mention it. A lie that has condemned it to perpetual one-party rule, even while that one party is bereft of either ambition or basic competence. For years, I have waited in vain for any Scottish politician to speak the truth to their compatriots, yet none ever do. The lie is too big, the offence is too great. This is the lie: “Scottish independence is possible.” In an economy like Scotland’s, cutting itself off from the financial lifeline of the Union would set off a chain reaction Many will scoff at this, arguing that it is plainly possible, that any country can be independent.

The SNP’s food price cap is a ‘gimmick’

First Minister John Swinney needed a headline-grabbing new policy for the launch of his party’s Holyrood election manifesto yesterday, and it came in the form of a pledge to cap supermarket prices on ‘essential’ foods. Speaking in Glasgow’s East End, Swinney said that while inflation has come down, people are struggling to afford their groceries to such an extent that ‘for some the cost of food is so high that it is hitting their health and wellbeing’. He went on: ‘Now, with the current powers of our parliament, I cannot normally set prices at the till. But things have got so tough it is now impacting on our nation’s nutrition. That is a public health issue, and I have public health powers.

Why young people like the Scottish Greens

The Scottish Greens’ manifesto for Holyrood 2026 proposes the most far-reaching overhaul of the economy north of the border. I’ve been urging the party’s critics, of which I am one, to understand its growing support in the opinion polls as a reflection of Generation Rent, educated professionals and semi-professionals under the age of 40 who are stuck renting in the private sector. The Green manifesto, unveiled on Tuesday, is an unapologetic pitch to these voters, with pledges on housing, health, childcare, and workers’ rights to address their key concerns. Tenants would get the right to withhold rent where landlords fail to keep up with repairs and safety standards and would be entitled to four months’ notice before eviction.

There’s no denying the Scottish Greens’ ascendance

A cardinal error in politics is hating your opponents so much you cannot understand them. If you know no one who supports Reform or the Greens, you have a limited social circle. If you cannot conceive of a reasonable person who might do so, you have a limited political imagination. A useful reminder comes in the form of a new poll from Ipsos that suggests the Greens will be the main opposition party in the Scottish Parliament after May’s devolved elections. Cue much horror and disbelief from the party’s detractors.

Anas Sarwar: why I said Starmer should go – and what I told Wes Streeting

50 min listen

One month on from calling for Keir Starmer's resignation, Anas Sarwar – the leader of Scottish Labour – joins Michael Gove to reflect on British politics ahead of the May elections. Does he stand by his call for the Prime Minister to go? And, having spoken to Wes Streeting the weekend before, what advice did his close ally give? The May local and regional elections promise to be the 'fiercest battle' for Scotland's future. Yet after over two decades in power, what does he make of polling that suggests the SNP will win – again? Is Reform posing a threat to Labour? And how can Scottish Labour offer a realistic alternative? Plus: which Westminster cabinet minister would he like to see campaign in Scotland – and who are his political heroes?

The SNP’s Holyrood campaign is thoroughly dishonest

Has there ever been a more dishonest Holyrood election campaign than the one John Swinney is currently running? I don't believe there has been. Break away from Britain's integrated electricity market and you smash the model that has led to Scotland being a 'leader' in wind energy in the first place A look at Swinney or the SNP's X or Instagram feeds appears to show a steady stream of misinformation in recent months. Of course, we anticipate that politicians will at times stretch the truth – or, at the very least, not be completely open with us. It would be naive to think otherwise. But the consistency and brazenness of SNP lies during this campaign takes misinformation in our politics to a new level.

Reform’s Malcolm Offord is a hopeless party leader

At this point there is only one way to salvage Reform’s Scottish Parliament election campaign. Granted it’s unorthodox and, well, illegal, but hear me out: arrange to have Malcolm Offord kidnapped. Not long-term or anything, just until 7 May and the Holyrood elections in which Reform Scotland is set to make sizeable gains. Or at least it was until mid-January, when the party was hit by a leadership crisis, that crisis being Offord’s appointment to the leadership. Offord has broken the cardinal rule of elections: don’t hand your opponents free ammunition Without a leader, Reform was climbing up the polls. With Offord as leader, it’s going back down again. I might be in some very small way to blame for this.

Scottish devolution has failed

When the Scottish parliament was established in 1999, it was intended to represent the best of modern governance. The Labour architects of devolution, Donald Dewar foremost among them, argued that giving Scotland its own legislature would bring decision-making closer to the people, address chronic policy failures, and strengthen the Union by removing the grievances that fuelled nationalism. Lord George Robertson even suggested the new settlement would 'kill nationalism stone dead'. That was a prospect too tempting for Tony Blair, who sought to maintain Scotland’s status as a Labour electoral fortress. Attention on 7 May this year will largely focus on England’s local council elections.

Don’t force Catholics to abide by assisted dying

The Scottish Parliament is on the brink of passing a bill that would see Catholic hospitals and care homes shut down. The Bishops’ Conference of Scotland says it is ‘deeply disappointed’ by the rejection of an amendment to the Assisted Dying Bill that would have given institutions a right of conscientious objection. If the bill becomes law, it will mean that a Catholic hospice or care home would have no right to exempt itself from participation in the assisted suicide of one of its residents. The bishops state that assisted suicide is ‘fundamentally incompatible’ with the ‘guiding values’ of Catholic institutions, and raise the prospect of hospices and nursing homes having to ‘decide between acting contrary to their foundational values or closing’.

Why Alba failed

Farewell, then, Alba, the little party that tried to take on the Scottish political establishment and learned, as others had before it, that the establishment always wins. You can join it but you can never beat it. When Salmond went, so did Alba’s soul Just to rub salt into the wound, the party has imploded only two months before the Scottish Parliament elections. And that was Alba’s only real purpose: to contribute to a pro-independence majority at Holyrood which, so the notion went, would then notify Westminster that Scotland was leaving. This was the plan set out by the late Alex Salmond in which he would have played the part of Moses, Keir Starmer Pharaoh, and the Scots the Israelites: ‘Let ma people go!

Sturgeon’s ex accused of embezzling £459k

The SNP might be heading to another victory – but all is not going swimmingly for the nationalists. The party's former chief executive Peter Murrell – best known as Nicola Sturgeon's estranged husband – is in the firing line over more allegations concerning the party finances. Murrell is facing a charge of embezzling £459,000 from the party over a period of more than 12 years, according to a copy of an indictment seen by the BBC and Scottish Sun. Uh oh... According to the document, Murrell is accused of embezzling the funds between August 2010 and January 2023. He is is alleged to have used the cash to buy items including cars, a motorhome, luxury goods, shoes, cosmetics and jewellery over a twelve-and-a-half year period.

It is Anas Sarwar who must now resign

There is a 1953 Warner Bros short, Zipping Along, in which Wile E. Coyote, frustrated with the failure of his elaborate schemes to kill the Road Runner, opts for a simpler method. He acquires a grenade, pulls the pin with his teeth, and chucks the explosive at the infernal Californian cuckoo. Only he does it the wrong way round, chomping down on the body, lobbing the safety pin at the Road Runner and promptly blowing himself up.  Anas Sarwar has done much the same with his statement calling for Keir Starmer to resign as prime minister over the Peter Mandelson/Jeffrey Epstein scandal. Addressing journalists in Glasgow, he said Scots were ‘crying out for competent government’ and that ‘the situation in Downing Street is not good enough; there have been too many mistakes.

There will be few politicians like Jeane Freeman again

There is no shortage of noise in contemporary politics, nor of people keen to confuse it with authority. Jeane Freeman, the former Scottish health minister who passed away this weekend, never did. She moved through political life with the calm confidence of someone who was always three steps ahead of any room she was in and entirely comfortable letting others catch up. This is not, however, to be confused with arrogance, of which she displayed not a hint. I came to know Jeane a little over the last few years, meeting every so often for coffee or lunch. I can’t claim we were close friends, but I always enjoyed those catch-ups. They were fun, full of gossip and the sort of dark humour that comes naturally to people who have spent too long watching their own party eat itself.

Why are men still in women’s prisons?

The women are at it again. For Women Scotland (FWS), specifically. They’re the pressure group who took on the Scottish government, which believes men are women if they say so, and secured a Supreme Court judgment that ‘sex’ in the Equality Act refers to biological rather than ‘certificated’ sex. Now they’re back in court taking on the same government over its policy of allowing some male prisoners who identify as trans to be held in the female estate. Aidan O’Neill KC, who is representing FWS, suggested to the Court of Session on Tuesday morning that the Scottish government was doubling down as ‘a political calculation’ and that women locked up with men were being ‘used by the Scottish government in this case to be traded as pawns for political gain’.

Scottish bonds are an expensive mistake

Humza Yousaf’s inglorious year as first minister will not be remembered for many lasting achievements. But he does, at least, have one legacy. In October 2023, Yousaf told the SNP party conference: ‘I can confirm that by the end of this parliament the SNP Government will – subject of course to due diligence and market testing – go directly to the international bond market for the first time in our own right.’ Yousaf did not hide the true motivation for the bond programme, adding: We will show the world not only that we are a country to invest in today. We will also demonstrate the credibility to international markets that we will need when we become an independent country. Delegates, the SNP is delivering for the people of Scotland today.

Malcolm Offord must improve

The biggest beneficiary of Robert Jenrick’s defenestration and defection was neither Kemi Badenoch nor Nigel Farage but Malcolm Offord. He is the former Tory peer whose unveiling as Reform’s Scottish leader was in progress when the purring notifications orchestra struck up among the assembled reporters and Reform staffers. The news of Jenrick’s ouster dominated the remainder of the proceedings, which was fortunate for Offord because his first media event as leader was a handy reminder of his shortcomings. Reform is trying to have it both ways with Offord, selling him as a political outsider and a safe pair of hands with experience in parliament and government. If he truly were a political outsider, it might mitigate some of his unimpressive responses to media questions.

The SNP’s Budget was nothing but cynical spin

Yesterday, Shona Robison, Scotland’s finance minister, delivered her tax and spending plans for the coming fiscal year. The headline message from the SNP was the following: the majority of Scots will pay less tax than those living in the rest of the UK. That’s thanks to a very slight lifting of the threshold freeze on the lower tax bands, resulting in whopping tax cuts of less than £1 per week for the lowest tax-paying earners. The result is that those taxpayers at the bottom of the rung will find themselves £24 a year better off than if they lived anywhere else in the UK. By contrast, those earning £70,000 are faced with a nearly £2,000 premium for living in Scotland. The SNP are masterful at spin and so the message seems to have landed.

What’s the future of the Scottish Tories?

19 min listen

The leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Russell Findlay MSP, sits down with James Heale to look ahead to May's pivotal Holyrood elections. He pushes back against the threat from Reform, arguing that Nigel Farage is trying to be 'all things to all people', and he is scathing about the lack of loyalty shown by those who have defected from the party – not just to Reform, but to the Liberal Democrats too. But with the collapse of the support Labour received in the 2024 general election – which Findlay calls their 'loveless landslide' – why aren't the Tories benefitting more? Plus, how did being the victim of a vicious acid attack in 2015 shape his politics? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.