Politics Archives

Wednesday

12 December 2018

The full list of Tory MPs backing Theresa May

With just a few moments to go until voting closes, 181 Tory MPs have publicly backed Theresa May in the vote of confidence. Given that May needs 159 votes, their support should be enough to keep her position safe. But given that this is a secret ballot, are they as good as their word? Here is the full list of those who have vowed to back the PM: Bim Afolami: https://twitter.com/BimAfolami/status/1072768564711567360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Adam Afriyie: https://twitter.com/AdamAfriyie/status/1072784271427940352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Heidi Allen: https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1072776427832033281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Stuart Andrew Ed Argar Victoria Atkins Kemi Badenoch Steve Barclay: https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1072768890877501441?

James Forsyth

To survive now, Theresa May could have to promise to resign later

The signatures are now in. Theresa May will have to ask whether her best chance of survival comes in promising to resign – but not just yet. She must now decide whether to set out a timetable for her departure ahead of this evening. If she wins the vote, she cannot be challenged for another year. There, though, are a decent number of Tories MPs who don’t want her gone now, but do want her to leave soon after March 29th. They would like a new PM in place for the 2nd round of the Brexit negotiations. So what are they to do if tonight's confidence vote? If May gives no indication that she will go before party conference next year, some of these MPs might tip into the no confidence column – making this contest a closer than expected affair.

Tom Goodenough

Breaking: Leadership contest against Theresa May triggered

In the last few moments it has been confirmed that a leadership contest against Theresa May has been triggered. The number of letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister needed to lead to a vote – 48 – is believed to have been met last night. Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 committee, told Tory MPs in a message this morning that events overnight 'have moved very quickly' and that the threshold had now been reached. A vote is expected to take place tonight between 6pm and 8pm. It is thought that the votes will be counted immediately, meaning that if she loses, Theresa May could be gone as early as tonight.

Tuesday

11 December 2018

Katy Balls

‘Tell them again’ – how the Leave campaign could look in a second referendum

The so-called People's Vote campaign have today held an event on the need for a vote on the final Brexit deal. The screen for the event is emblazoned with a new slogan: 'If not now, when?' – in an attempt to argue there's no time like the present. https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1072456826661285888 Whether or not you agree with the sentiment, more people are coming round to the idea that a second vote is likely – the odds on a second EU referendum has moved from 7/4 into Even money in recent days – as a way to break the Brexit deadlock. While Theresa May has delayed a Brexit clash by moving the vote, there's a feeling that she's simply putting off the inevitable rather than working on a new plan.

Steerpike

Watch: Theresa May gets locked inside her car

Poor old Theresa May. The PM is hopping across Europe in a desperate bid to try and salvage her Brexit deal. But quite predictably things aren't going well. After arriving in Berlin to meet Angela Merkel, Theresa May got off to a bad start – by getting locked in her car. https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1072463780007809024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Mr S is pleased to report that it wasn't long before the PM was freed, although he suspects that not all Tory MPs will be pleased about that....

Steerpike

Watch: John Bercow burns Philip Hammond

John Bercow gave Labour MPs a helping hand in the Commons yesterday by making his thoughts known on the Government's decision to delay a vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal. The Speaker said the hold-up was 'deeply discourteous'. But it seems he hasn't stopped his mission of making life tricky for the Tories. Philip Hammond urged John McDonnell to vote for the PM's withdrawal arrangement because it was the best that was on offer. But unfortunately for the Chancellor his remark teed up Bercow to take a pop at him: 'It's quite difficult to vote for something if there isn't a vote' Mr S thinks that Bercow does have a point...

Alexander Downer

No deal need not be a disaster

Spare a thought for us foreigners. We’re desperately trying to understand the meaning of the Brexit arguments being thrown around in the House of Commons. We all have our own countries too, so we view those arguments through the lens of our homelands. So here are a few reflections on how we react. Theresa May's deal has the UK leaving the voting structures of the EU but remaining in the Customs Union until the EU gives the UK permission to leave. Australia and New Zealand have a free trade agreement and co-ordinate their regulatory regimes through a joint council. But they certainly don’t have a customs union otherwise neither country would be able to make its own trade policy.

Ross Clark

May’s delay has made a leadership challenge more likely

How painfully clear it is what happens next. Theresa May returns from her European travels with some kind of non legally-binding piece of paper saying that the EU would rather not enact the backstop if it can possibly avoid it, and, some time in January we finally have the crushing Commons defeat that we should have had today. Unless, that is, Conservative MPs finally overcome their chronic writers’ block and get their 48 letters to Graham Brady. It has become a received wisdom that May has somehow bought herself time by delaying the vote on the withdrawal bill – that she has stayed the executioner’s axe. Yet the opposite is true: by delaying the vote she has created the space for a leadership election.

James Forsyth

It’s time to send Geoffrey Cox – not Olly Robbins – to Brussels

Theresa May is on a tour of European capitals today, while Olly Robbins was spotted back in Brussels yesterday. But it isn’t Robbins who May should have sent to Brussels but Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general. May’s problem right now isn’t technical but parliamentary, how to get the withdrawal deal through the Commons. It isn’t reasonable, or even fair, to expect a civil servant—which is what Robbins is—to have a finger-tip feel for what language or phrase might reassure Tory MPs. Cox, having held dozens of meetings with Ministers and MPs to discuss their concerns about the backstop, is far better placed to do that.

James Kirkup

The lies and liars of Brexit

I started my first job at Westminster in 1994, more than half a lifetime ago. Almost all of my career has been spent watching politicians, talking to politicians, writing about politicians. I covered the case for war in Iraq and the war’s dismal descent into failure. I was part of the Telegraph team writing about MPs expenses. I’ve written about more ministerial resignations, scandals, failures of public policy and abdications of leadership than I can remember. None of those failures has ever left me quite as bewildered and despairing as I am today, pondering the latest act in the national farce that is Brexit. Bewildered, despairing and surprisingly angry. Surprisingly because I don’t often get angry with politicians.

Stephen Daisley

The deep state needs to step up its campaign against Jeremy Corbyn

It’s the lowest point in British espionage since Pierce Brosnan. A top secret cyber hit squad has been busted trying to undermine Jeremy Corbyn through the medium of Twitter. At least that’s the claim from the Sunday Mail, a left-leaning Scottish tabloid, which has exposed the Institute for Statecraft as ‘a secret UK Government-funded infowars unit’. The Institute is based in a grotty old Victorian mill in Fife and can be distinguished from every other building in Fife in that it’s a mill. It doesn’t look like a place where they knock back shaken-not-stirred martinis in between designing fountain pens that double as rocket launchers but, what with austerity, maybe From Auchtermuchty With Love is the best we can do.

Anthony Browne

Why Leave would win next time round

Like everyone nowadays, I can predict everything except the future. But if MPs reject the government’s Withdrawal Agreement (whenever it ends up being put before the Commons), there is one outcome that many are campaigning for: a second referendum. It is particularly supported by Remainers, who see it as the only democratically legitimate way to overturn the result of the first referendum, and so provide an exit from Brexit. From former prime ministers down, the cries for a so-called 'People’s Vote' are becoming deafening. The arguments in favour can be persuasive: we now know (sort of) on what terms we will leave the EU, we know more about Brexit, the public mood is changing: give the people a final say.

The Spectator

Letters of no confidence in Theresa May: live updates

UPDATE: 48 letters of no confidence have now been reached. It's been four long weeks since the last rebellion against Theresa May, when the ERG and Brexiteers fell short of the numbers they needed to trigger a leadership election. Now, it's being reported that Tory MPs have had enough, and are once again submitting letters of no confidence to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady. Speculation is rife that the total number of letters has already been reached this evening. Once 48 letters have been submitted, a confidence vote will be triggered. But before them, Brady is likely to let the PM know in private first, to give her the chance to resign before any confidence vote takes place.

Monday

10 December 2018

Pieter Cleppe

Now Theresa May has postponed the vote, how will the EU react?

Even before today’s announcement that the Brexit vote would be pulled, a number of media leaks indicated the EU’s plan in case of a parliamentary defeat. According to Reuters, the EU had been planning to concede a number of cosmetic changes. However, those changes would not be made to the withdrawal agreement, but only to the non-binding political declaration. As one EU diplomat said: 'we could look at doing something cosmetic, relatively quickly. First, we would have to hear from May, see what they want'. Another EU diplomat, however, warned that 'if she falls short of a hundred votes, it’s probably not doable.' It now makes sense for the EU to go ahead with this plan, now that Theresa May has essentially suffered a virtual defeat in Parliament.

Charles Day

The ECJ wants to take back control of Brexit

Given that the ECJ often takes years to give an opinion, the speed of its Brexit judgement is unprecedented. Now and again, the mask slips: in theory the ECJ’s court judicial, cares only about good law. In practise this is nakedly political – explicitly so this time, given the vote tomorrow. It’s being breathlessly reported that ECJ has said Britain can now abandon Brexit unilaterally, without permission. This is just wrong. Unilateral means on our own. We can’t do that under this judgement. Instead, see paras 73 to 75, the ECJ gets to sign off on whether or not we can revoke. The test is not abuse, as proposed by the AG.

Steerpike

Watch: Labour MP grabs the mace in protest at vote delay

It’s been a day of high emotions in the House of Commons after Theresa May moved to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal. With Brexiteers, the SNP and Labour MPs distinctly unimpressed at the move, it all got a bit too much for one MP this evening in the Chamber. Step forward Lloyd Russell-Moyle. The Labour MP this evening made headlines after he broke a Parliament taboo. In protest at May’s decision to delay the vote, Russell-Moyle grabbed the ceremonial mace. This is against the rules and he has been suspended from the Commons as a result: https://twitter.com/dcakraemer/status/1072234234901860353?s=21 The Labour MP has so far succeeded in uniting warring factions in condemnation at his actions. Not that Russell-Moyle seems worried, he’s since been spotted in the pub.

Steerpike

Sarah Vine goes on the offensive over Brexit u-turn

Oh dear. It’s been a testing day for Her Majesty’s government after Theresa May decided to postpone the vote on her Brexit deal in order to avoid a humiliating defeat. The problem is no-one bothered to tell May’s so-called inner circle and just hours before the vote was pulled Michael Gove was sent on the Today programme to explain that the vote was going ahead. Could the communications meltdown prove the trigger to ministers turning on May? Mr S only asks after Michael Gove’s wife Sarah Vine - the Daily Mail columnist - appeared to suggest on social media that she was running out of patience with the Prime Minister.

Steerpike

Six denials in six days about Theresa May’s Brexit vote

Faced with the prospect of overwhelming defeat, Theresa May has once again decided to kick the Brexit can down the road and delay the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. Standing before the House of Commons, the Prime Minister told MPs that ‘it is clear that while there is broad support for many of the key aspects of the deal, on one issue – the Northern Ireland backstop – there remains widespread and deep concern.’ which is why she is shelving the vote. All of which rather confused Mr Steerpike. After all, nothing had really changed in the past week, and Mr S was sure he had heard multiple times that there was absolutely no possibility that this vote would be cancelled.

Steerpike

Watch: MP tells May: No PM is better than a bad PM

Not for the first time, Theresa May's words on Brexit are coming back to haunt her. The PM once famously said that no deal is better than a bad deal. But in the Commons just now, Labour MP Peter Kyle had this to say to the PM: 'Isn't it true that no Prime Minister is better than a bad Prime Minister?' Mr S thinks that Kyle has a point. But given that the Labour MP is no fan of the party's leader, does his logic also apply to the prospect of a Labour government under Jeremy Corbyn?

James Forsyth

Pulling the vote won’t be enough to save Theresa May’s Brexit deal

Few Prime Ministers can have come to the House in more humiliating circumstances than Theresa May did today. In her statement, May acknowledged that she was pulling the vote as she would have lost it by a significant margin if it had gone ahead. But in that odd way of hers, May then delivered her best defence of her deal as she was saying that she would head back to Brussels to try and change it. However, it is worth noting that May does not seem to be seeking a change to the withdrawal agreement itself. In response to a question from Iain Duncan Smith, she warned that reopening the withdrawal agreement would lead to more demands from other EU member states.