Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Wednesday

Katy Balls

The confidence vote was not a victory in any real sense for Theresa May

Theresa May has won the confidence vote tabled against her by her own party. The Prime Minister won by 200 votes to 117 against. This is not a victory in any real sense for May. Government figures tonight are surprised by the number of MPs voting against. No. 10 had hoped to keep the rebellion in double figures. However, ministers are keen to put to Coffee House that 200 is a respectable figure - even if it is on the low end of respectable. May’s critics will likely argue that the defeat is in triple figures so she should resign. That looks unlikely. Even if May had won by a mere 20 votes the expectation was that she would fight on. So, what happens now? As one government source put it, ‘May is over’.

Steerpike

Watch: Jacob Rees-Mogg calls on Theresa May to go

Theresa May has survived the vote of confidence in her leadership, but Jacob Rees-Mogg has insisted the Prime Minister should still quit. The Tory Brexiteer said that the result was 'terrible' for the PM, pointing out that many of those who backed her were 'on the payroll': 'The PM must realise under most constitutional norms she ought to go and see the Queen urgently and resign' May has won a battle, but her critics are determined not to back down just yet...

Tom Goodenough

Theresa May wins vote of confidence by 200 to 117

Theresa May has survived a vote of confidence in her leadership. Graham Brady, the chairman of the Tory backbench committee, announced the result to cheers from Tory MPs gathered in Parliament. 200 Tory MPs backed the Prime Minister in the vote. But 117 of her own MPs – more than a third of the party – voted against Theresa May. On the steps of Downing Street, May said she had listened to those within the Tory party who had voted against her. She said she would seek 'legal and political assurances that will assuage concerns about the backstop' in her Brexit deal. But Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of the Prime Minister's leading critics, said that the result was a bad one for May and called on her to quit.

James Forsyth

Theresa May says she will not stand in the next election

Theresa May has time-limited her premiership in an attempt to save it. She told the 1922 Committee this evening that, ‘In my heart I would have liked to lead the party into the next election (partly because of what happened last time). But I realise that the party would like a different leader to take them into that election.’ I am told that this was the most emotional and personal part of her speech. In the questions, Adam Holloway pressed her on what would happen if an election happened within the next 12 months—the period from which May will be immune from a leadership challenge if she wins tonight. I am told that her answer was simply that it was her job to ensure that there wasn’t an election in this time.

Lloyd Evans

Corbyn plays into May’s hands at PMQs

Bad 24 hours for Mrs May. A last-minute Christmas shopping-trip to Europe yielded no bargains whatever, even though she had £39bn to splurge on an extension to her premiership. Back home she found a conspiracy of seditious Tories baying for her resignation. The Queen of Narnia is a masochist. She finds punishment stimulating, and perhaps slightly addictive, so she showed up at PMQs looking calm and expectant. Her mood was buttressed by certainty. This evening her fate will be decided. All she has to lose is everything, but the result is out of her hands. This probably settled her nerves. ‘Brazen it out’, was her only tactic today.

Brendan O’Neill

Why Theresa May must go

Theresa May has got to go. She has got to go because she has failed British democracy, failed the British people, and reneged on the Conservative Party’s own manifesto promise to leave both the Customs Union and the Single Market. She has got to go because 17.4m Britons, the largest democratic bloc in British history, voted to ‘Take back control’ and she responded by ceding even more control to Brussels. She has got to go because the British people clearly want someone to stand up to Brussels, yet she bows and scrapes before Brussels, capitulating to its every undemocratic demand and conspiring in its stitch-up of Brexit. Yet the expectation is that she will survive this evening’s confidence vote.

Charles Moore

Four points for Tory MPs to consider before voting tonight

If I were a Tory MP, I would be worried by the timing of this vote, but, given that it is happening, I would think the following: 1. She's trying to bounce me by making me vote tonight. 2. This is the last chance for a year, because Theresa May is rule-bound and not one to take hints. 3. I do not, in fact, have confidence in her, and so, since I'm being asked, I should say so. 4. Although I do think she is sincere in wishing to deliver what people voted for, we have learnt that she doesn't know how to do this. We urgently need a Prime Minister who does. I am conscious that there is no guarantee that my vote would bring what I want, but I would reluctantly prefer the uncertainty of a contest to the certainty of Mrs May in Downing Street.

Isabel Hardman

Heavy-handed rebel operation in no confidence vote deters Tory MPs

One of the factors driving wavering Tory MPs towards saying they will vote for Theresa May tonight is the way in which the rebel operation appears to be being conducted. It's not just that the airwaves were dominated this morning by rather strident Brexiteers as opposed to MPs from a range of persuasions. It's also the heavy-handed language that May's opponents are using behind the scenes as they argue with colleagues. A number of MPs tell me they have been galvanised to support May after a 'fairly brutal' exchange in the Conservative MPs WhatsApp group in which Nadine Dorries, who has long called on May to consider her position, managed to insult her colleagues.

Isabel Hardman

Number 10: Confidence vote is not about who leads the Tories into the next election

Theresa May doesn't see today's vote of no confidence as being about who will lead the Conservative party into the next election, her spokesman has just said. This is significant as it removes the possibility that the Prime Minister sees today's result as being a mandate for her continuing as leader, when many Tory MPs do not want her to. This therefore makes it much easier for those MPs to support the Prime Minister this evening. Speaking to journalists after Prime Minister's Questions, her spokesman said: 'She does not believe that this vote today is about who leads the party into the next election. It is about whether it is sensible to change leader now.

Katy Balls

How the Brexiteer rebels’ gamble could backfire

As things stand, the number of MPs who have come out publicly to say they will back Theresa May in a confidence vote is enough to keep her in place. However, given that it is a secret ballot and there are still five hours to go until that vote, plenty could change between now and then. Whips are nervous about the middle chunk of MPs – who tend not to kick off – but have so far failed to raise their head above the parapet to back May. But should there be no nasty surprises for May between now and the vote, the Brexiteer gamble could backfire. If May does win the vote, it doesn't get any easier for her to pass her deal with Tory support – in fact, it gets harder.

Ross Clark

Is business really that bothered by the prospect of May’s departure?

The world of business is, apparently, appalled by the actions of the 48 or more Conservative MPs who have triggered a vote of no confidence in Theresa May as Conservative leader. According to the Institute of Directors, its members are ‘tearing their hair out’ over today’s news. The message seems to be that a change of Prime Minister is an unwanted distraction when the country is already in a state of crisis. Yet markets seem to disagree. The FTSE this morning is up by more than one per cent. However negatively bosses might see the potential end of Theresa May as Prime Minister, investors in their companies seem to be taking a rather more positive view. It is not the first time that a divergence has emerged between business leaders and investors over Brexit.

James Forsyth

What would be a good result for Theresa May tonight?

The sense in Westminster this morning is that Theresa May will win tonight’s confidence vote. So, as is the way, the conversation has immediately moved on to what would be a good result for her. Cabinet ministers are busy saying that a win is a win, whatever the margin. One points out to me that if she wins tonight, she’s PM for a year and ‘unassailable unless people want to have Corbyn as PM’. But I can’t help remembering how John Major set a floor for himself in the 1995 leadership contest without telling any of his political team. He needed 165 votes to win but resolved he’d go if he got 215 or less. In the end, he got 218. One long-time backbench ally of the Prime Minister predicts that she’ll win tonight by 200 to 115.

Steerpike

Theresa May has 80 per cent chance of winning the confidence vote, say bookmakers

It may be a terrible day for Theresa May, but the signs so far seem to suggest that she's at least going to win her upcoming no confidence vote. Four of the bookmakers: Ladbrokes, Paddypower, Betway and Betfair now suggest that the Prime Minister has an 80 per cent chance of convincing her MPs to continue backing her premiership.   Interestingly, Paddypower only gave the Prime Minister a 50 per cent chance of survival at the beginning of the day, but has since improved her odds in line with the other bookies. Were they convinced by the numerous ministers and MPs who have declared they will support the Prime Minister? If so, Mr S should remind them: the next round is a secret ballot, and MPs may not vote in line with their public proclamations...

Isabel Hardman

How the Tory vote of no confidence in Theresa May will work

Two Tory MPs who are currently suspended from the party whip could be brought back in order to take part in today's vote of no confidence against Theresa May, 1922 Committee Chair Graham Brady revealed this morning. Briefing journalists on the vote, Brady said he was waiting for confirmation from the Chief Whip of the size of the Tory party electoral roll, and that it depended on whether Charlie Ephicke or Andrew Griffiths had the whip restored. Both men were suspended following allegations of sexual harassment, though the Conservative party concluded in November that no further action would be taken against Griffiths. Brady also said that any MPs who were unable to return to Westminster for the vote would be able to apply for a proxy vote by 4pm today, with the result announced at 9pm.

Alex Massie

Ditching Theresa May achieves nothing

Theresa May has failed. That is no longer in doubt. Nor is there any prospect of resurrection. Her credibility within the Conservative party, the House of Commons, and the country at large is shot. The only thing propping up her Government is the fear that allowing it to collapse completely would invite Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street. That, for the time being, is something even this deranged iteration of the Conservative party is not prepared to countenance. As a matter of party politics, May has been on some kind of unofficial probation ever since last year’s disastrous general election. In office, certainly, but only tolerated grudgingly.

Steerpike

Watch: Tory MPs refuse to talk on TV

It's all out war in the Conservative party today, and as you would expect, things are already getting a little heated between Tory MPs. The rift between colleagues backing Theresa May and those calling for her to go was very apparent on BBC news this morning, where Brexiteer and letter submitter Andrew Bridgen was talking about the upcoming no confidence vote. At the end of his interview, he was then asked by Victoria Derbyshire if he was willing to stay on and chat with the deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, James Cleverly - who is backing Theresa May, and who had just joined them: 'I gather, that you don't necessarily want to talk to each other, so if you need to go, are you happy to, talk?' To which Bridgen replied: 'I'll go, that's fine' And walked off. Ouch.

James Kirkup

Tory MPs need to face reality, and back Theresa May

Tory MPs should vote for Theresa May in tonight’s confidence vote. Keeping her in place will be painful, difficult and lead to any number of awful problems. But it is far, far better than the horrors that will follow if they remove her. Even if you can, like Owen Paterson, blithely gloss over the fact that Britain would not have a permanent head of government for a month at a time of national crisis, you can’t deny the fact that changing the leader won’t change the parliamentary numbers. Nor — despite the fantasies of the Tory unicorn-herders — will it change the EU position.

Katy Balls

Theresa May delivers a message of defiance to her Tory critics

Theresa May has just given a defiant speech outside Downing Street in which she promised to ‘contest’ the confidence vote with ‘everything’ that she’s got. On the news that 48 confidence letters had been received by 1922 committee chairman Graham Brady, the Prime Minister said the only people a Tory leadership contest would benefit right now are Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell: ‘A change of leadership in the Conservative party now would put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it. A new leader wouldn’t be in place by 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament.

Steerpike

The next Tory leader: runners and riders

It’s official, 48 letters of no confidence have been submitted to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, triggering a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister this evening. If she loses this, she will be required to stand down and a Conservative leadership election will begin. As James reports on Coffee House, already the next potential leaders of the Tory party are jostling to take Theresa May’s place. But any Tory MP who wants to take the Conservative Party throne has a tough ride ahead. First, they have to be popular among their fellow MPs, in an internal election that narrows the process down to two candidates. Then, after hustings, they have to win a vote among Conservative grassroots members.

Katy Balls

Tory MPs talk up a swift Christmas leadership contest

Theresa May will tonight face a confidence vote by her MPs. Conservative MPs will vote on her fate early evening – and the results are expected to be counted immediately. The arrival of 48 letters took government figures by surprise last night. While it was clear May's decision to shelve the vote on her Brexit deal had gone badly with chunks of Tory MPs ministers had seen its postponement as crucial to her short term survival. Now May will have to fight to stay on until that vote. Speaking to MPs in the Commons last night, it became clear that the hostilities towards May are far wider ranging than just the European Research Group.