Politics Archives

Monday

10 December 2018

Speaker Bercow says MPs should get a say in delaying Brexit vote

Speaker Bercow has told MPs that they do deserve a vote on the government’s plan to delay its Brexit deal vote. He told the Commons this afternoon that ‘any courteous, respectful and mature environment, allowing the House to have its say on the matter would be the right and obvious course to take’. We will find out more details on the procedural aspects of the government’s plan later when Andrea Leadsom gives a statement. Bercow’s statement shows why Labour were so keen to protect him as Speaker when his job was in peril over the bullying and harassment scandal. He was always likely to be an interventionist speaker over Brexit, and in this instance, he is making life as uncomfortable for the government as he possibly can.

Steerpike

Watch: Beast of Bolsover takes Theresa May to task

Theresa May is having a hard time in the Commons on all sides but the most outspoken attack has come from a typical suspect. Step forward, Dennis Skinner. The Beast of Bolsover took the PM to task for delaying the Brexit vote, saying that by doing so she had handed over power to Brussels: 'Mrs Thatcher had a word for it. What she has done today: F - R - I - T. She’s frit.' Mr S is pleased to see that Skinner appears to have found some common ground with the Iron Lady...

Robert Peston

Theresa May must now admit she has failed. What happens next?

The Prime Minister had one job, after she took the greatest office in the land in July 2016 – which was to negotiate an orderly sensible Brexit. Today she will admit she has failed. Because rather than risk seeing an overwhelming majority of MPs vote down the Brexit plan she has meticulously and painstakingly agreed with the EU, she will today tell MPs she is pulling the vote. Two questions follow. What on earth can she say at 3.30pm today to persuade MPs and the nation that she has a strategy for a better Brexit outcome? And will MPs actually let her pull that vote? MPs of ALL parties – including her own – are queuing up to tell me this morning that they will not give up their democratic right to formally vote down her deal without a fight.

Isabel Hardman

Eurosceptics threaten to block Government delay to Brexit vote

Could we end up with Parliament voting on the Brexit deal tomorrow anyway? Eurosceptic Tory MPs have reacted with fury to the announcement that the government will delay the vote, with a number threatening to vote against the delay. I understand that the European Research Group is currently discussing whether this is actually possible as an official position, but in the meantime MPs such as James Duddridge and Andrea Jenkyns have already made their threats public. However, sources tell me that the advice given to the ERG has been that the Government might not even have to call a vote on delaying the vote, as it can merely avoid moving the continuation of the debate.

Katy Balls

Why Theresa May has decided to postpone the Brexit vote

Faced with a choice between a humiliating defeat or moving a vote in order to delay a humiliating defeat, Theresa May has plumped for the latter. This morning, cabinet sources say the Prime Minister made the decision to delay the vote on her Brexit deal. Despite No.10 insisting repeatedly this morning that the vote would go ahead on Tuesday, the scale of defeat appears to have become too much and there are now plans to try and shelve it. Cabinet sources suggest that the vote will be moved to January. The vote could still go ahead if May's opponents find a procedural ruse by which to thwart the government.

Katy Balls

No.10 schedule emergency cabinet conference call

Cabinet ministers have been invited to an 11.30am emergency conference call, Coffee House understands. Not in the diary until the last hour, this has led to speculation that Theresa May could be about to delay the vote. As one Cabinet minister told me this morning: 'I don't expect the vote to go ahead this week.' But is this just wishful thinking? It's been clear for several days now that there has been an effort by ministers to get No.10 to delay the vote. Gavin Williamson has been seen as a key actor in all this – making the point that a large defeat could spell the end of the government. Other ministers agree and have also put pressure on May – in this vein, several Sunday newspapers reported that the vote could be called off imminently. Yet, despite this, No.

Ross Clark

The ECJ Brexit ruling hands power back to Britain

The “People’s Vote” is celebrating the judgement by the European Court of Justice that Britain could unilaterally revoke Article 50 at any point up until 29 March next year and remain in the EU under existing terms. It destroys the argument that Michael Gove made last weekend: that reversing our decision to stay in the EU would lead to vastly inferior terms, the loss of Britain’s rebate and so on. And while the government still describes the judgement as hypothetical, it will also heap huge pressure on Theresa May if she loses tomorrow’s seemingly doomed vote on her withdrawal bill. Like it or not, she will have to fend off a reinvigorated campaign for a second referendum. But hang on a minute, is the ruling really only good news for Remainers?

Gavin Mortimer

How the Gilets jaunes movement could spread across Europe

The eminent historian Emmanuel Todd was on the radio in France last week. He had much to say, none of which would have made for easy listening at the Élysée Palace, particularly his warning that Emmanuel Macron is facing a coup d'etat that has been fomenting for years. Todd believes that fundamental to the rise of the Yellow Vest movement is what happened in 2005. That was the year France, in the words of the Guardian at the time, "decisively rejected the new European constitution". The 'non' votes were 54 per cent (out of an overall turnout of almost 70 per cent) and jubilant campaigners demanded the resignation of Jacques Chirac as they celebrated in the Place de la Bastille.

Sunday

9 December 2018

Alexander S. Mckibbin

The terrifying prospect of a Corbyn-led government

Hats off to Ross Clark for his timely highlighting of the perils of a Corbyn-led government. For those who remember the 1970s, the spectre of an unreconstructed far-left socialist and his acolyte ensconced as neighbours in Downing Street is a terrifying yet wearyingly predictable scenario. Unfettered by opposition, they would see Britain’s economy as being ripe for experimentation. Some of Corbyn’s policy pronouncements which are already in the public domain are alarming enough. Even more concerning should be the as yet unuttered thoughts lurking in the corners of Corbynista minds; the authoritarian student politics and divisive dogma.

Matthew Taylor

Sunday shows roundup: Boris on Brexit

Boris Johnson - I feel 'deep sense of personal responsibility' for Brexit Perhaps the star guest of the day was the former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson who joined Andrew Marr ahead of what looks to be another difficult week for the government. Having resigned his position after the Chequers summit in July, Johnson has since been a leading voice of opposition to Theresa May's Brexit plan, and has argued that not reaching a deal with the EU would be a preferable outcome to what is currently on offer. Marr asked him about the possible impact of 'no deal', a scenario which has become ever more likely by the day: AM: If in the circumstances of no deal lots of people up and down the country lose their jobs... will you take personal responsibility? BJ: Of course I will.

Charles Moore

The Mail may suffer yet for its Brexit volte-face

I may have spoken too soon when I predicted that the Daily Mail might not suffer from its Brexit volte-face. At the Daily Telegraph’s Christmas charity phone-in last Sunday, I was struck by how many donating readers mentioned the Mail’s desertion, and by reports of recruitment by the Telegraph of disconsolate Mail readers. There are rumours that the Mail’s new editor, Geordie Greig, has personally rung to plead with readers who are cancelling their subscriptions. Geordie is a charming man, but obviously he cannot speak to all the disgruntled tens of thousands. The Mail has chosen to switch from an insurgent to an establishment position just when that establishment is more discredited than at any time since the 1930s.

Saturday

8 December 2018

James Ball

We Remainers need to stop trying to convince ourselves the referendum was stolen

Anyone looking at the Independent’s front page the other day – or at least its electronic mock-up, made primarily for social media and TV paper reviews – will have seen a bombshell of a headline: 'Illegal Facebook spending "won 2016 vote for Leave”'. That’s a seismic claim if it can be confirmed: the once-in-a-generation vote to leave the EU was won through what we now know was an illegal overspend of £500,000 or so. Except the Independent adopted an old newspaper trick: the biggest news is in quotes, suggesting that it’s not the newspaper claiming it, but rather someone else. At first, that someone looks credible.

Katy Balls

More resignation trouble on the horizon for May as vote approaches

With three days to go until the vote on Theresa May’s deal, this had been the point in the process that No 10 hoped the Whips would be closing in on the swing rebels. Instead the number of rebels is growing with every day. This evening Will Quince has resigned as a PPS - urging the Prime Minister to go back to the EU and renegotiate the detail so it becomes something MPs can support. Now Quince is no household name but he is also not an ardent Brexiteer or an ardent Remainer. The fact that he has resigned shows how MPs sense a sinking ship and have no plans to be attached to a doomed deal which has little chance of passing. It used to be the case that a job in government was enough to entice loyalty from ambitious MPs.

Ross Clark

The ‘People’s Vote’ campaign’s latest struggle with the truth

Given how Remainers have lost no opportunity to accuse the official Leave campaign of telling porkies about how much money we send to the EU – £350 million per week according to Vote Leave but closer to a net £250 million once the UK rebate is taken into account – one might imagine that the 'People’s Vote' campaign would take extra special care over statements relating to financial contributions to the EU. But it seems not. It has been caught out doctoring a report written by an outside expert, leading to inaccurate claims about how EFTA members’ contributions to the EU are spent. Yesterday, 'People’s Vote' published a report entitled ‘Why Norway Plus Won’t Work’, with a foreword by David Miliband and Jo Johnson.

Steerpike

Watch: Jenni Russell schools Alastair Campbell on Remainer arrogance

When it comes to columnists who lean towards Remain, few are more vocal in their criticism of Brexit than Times columnist Jenni Russell. So, when Russell has to step in to warn arch-Remainer Alastair Campbell that he has gone too far, you know something has gone seriously wrong. This was the case on Newsnight on Friday evening. Russell used her appearance on the Brexit panel to explain why she had now gone cold on the idea of a second referendum: there has not been a big shift in public opinion and a no deal Brexit could win: 'The point is that absolutely no effort so far has gone into saying to people anything other than ‘you are mistaken, your lives are rubbish and they are going to be even worse if we leave.

James Forsyth

Will the government find a way to avoid Tuesday’s vote?

Key Cabinet Ministers are urging Theresa May to avoid a vote on her Brexit deal on Tuesday night. I report in The Sun this morning that they fear that if it goes ahead, the government will lose by a margin so large that it could bring the whole thing crashing down. One Secretary of State tells me that it would be ‘group suicide’ to press ahead with the vote. Number 10 say that no decision on whether to find a way to avoid the vote has been taken yet; senior figures there say that decision will not be taken until Monday. But they do admit that they are making little headway in trying to quell this rebellion. One Cabinet Minister tells me that they are heading for a three-figure defeat.

Katy Balls

Women with Balls podcast: the Liz Truss edition

When Liz Truss took to the stage at the Spectator's Parliamentarian of the Year awards, she used her speech to send up her Cabinet colleagues and boss – cracking jokes about the indefinite length of the backstop, Karen Bradley's loose grasp of history and – in a dig at her own department – called for a ban on Treasury forecasts. So, given Truss's straight-talking attitude, I'm delighted to have the Chief Secretary to the Treasury as my guest on the latest episode of Women with Balls: In the interview, Truss talks about the regrets of her youth ( ...

Charles Moore

Could Dominic Grieve’s Brexit amendment launch a new party?

Inside the Dominic Grieve amendment carried on Tuesday is the embryo of a new political party. Any parliamentary majority for what Sir Oliver Letwin, who voted for the amendment, calls ‘something real’ (‘Norway plus’) if Mrs May’s deal falls would depend on the support of a good many Labour MPs. After three months’ work, the organisers believe they have got 75 such on board, led by Chuka Umunna. These are anti-Brexit, chiefly Blairite Labour MPs who cannot bear Jeremy Corbyn. If their number held up (a big ‘if’), the organisers calculate, the House could carry ‘Norway plus’, with the government and most Conservative backbenchers supporting, even if the ‘hard’ Brexiteers opposed. Labour would be split.

John Connolly

The full list: MPs voting for and against May’s Brexit deal

It’s the question that’s on everyone’s lips this week in Westminster: now that the Brexit negotiations have been finalised by the EU, will Theresa May be able to get her withdrawal agreement through the House of Commons? So far, the numbers are not in her favour. Labour have confirmed they will whip against her deal, as have the SNP and other opposition parties. Meanwhile the DUP have said they will vote against the proposal – rather than just abstain. That means even if Theresa May could count on complete party loyalty in the upcoming meaningful vote, she would still be four votes short of the 320 needed for a majority. Unfortunately for her, there are already plenty of MPs on her side unhappy with the deal and willing to rebel.

Friday

7 December 2018

Anthony Masters

Did Vote Leave’s overspending win the referendum for Brexit?

An Oxford professor's claim that it was “very likely” that overspending by Vote Leave swung the referendum for Brexit has taken off like wildfire. Professor Philip Howard's analysis made the front page of yesterday's Independent under the headline: 'Illegal Facebook spending 'won 2016 vote for Leave''. So do the numbers behind the headline add up? Prof Howard, director of the Oxford Internet Institute, calculated that: Around 80 million Facebook users saw the Vote Leave campaign ads on social media during the period of excess spending; 10 per cent of users clicked through; 10 per cent of those users switched their vote as a result, giving over 800,000 switched voters. This argument falls at each hurdle.