Labour party

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_11_Sept_2014_v4.mp3" title="Fraser Nelson, Tom Holland and Leah McLaren discuss how we can still save the Union" startat=50] Listen [/audioplayer]I bet that until a few days ago you thought the referendum in Scotland was a mildly amusing sideshow. Perhaps you still do. Perhaps you are convinced that the ‘silent majority’ that Better Together are so sure will step up to the plate at the last minute really exist. Perhaps you think that the reasons many people are giving for voting ‘yes’ are so vague that voters will change their mind on the day. Or even if they don’t you might think it is all an irrelevance.

The talks between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives on the anti-terror measures that David Cameron will unveil this afternoon have finally finished. There are a few more details to be thrashed out - crossing of Ts and dotting of Is rather than major policy decisions - but the two parties are basically there. That the talks have only broken up with just over an hour to go until the statement shows how contentious these measures have been in the Coalition. David Cameron's press conference, in which he set out the heightened threat, was partly a softening-up exercise to push the Lib Dems into accepting what the security and intelligence services had told him: that they needed to plug the 'gaps in Britain's armoury'.

One of the most fascinating things about Lord Ashcroft's latest poll is not its content, but who in the Conservative party will be reading it. Naturally, those trying to hold onto or win in the marginal seats that the peer has polled will be very interested (but not cheered) by the findings. But besides those with a personal stake in individual seats, there will be two groups of MPs: those who comb through the full datasets that Ashcroft produces, and those who do not. These are, respectively, the pragmatists and the optimists in the party, and they naturally have quite different views of what will happen next May.

Sajid Javid is giving a speech today that doesn't seem to have a great deal to do with his brief as Culture Secretary. He's also a pretty good Tory attack dog, and his address to the Centre for Policy Studies will focus on Labour's 'basic instinct' to spend and a warning that this instinct would leave Britain £500bn worse off. It's not so much the speech itself from the Culture Secretary that's interesting, but the reaction from the Labour Party. Chris Leslie has said: 'These numbers have been totally made up. Labour has not set out any plans for extra capital spending after the election, so this is just another example of the Tory lie machine in action.' Leslie then criticises the Coalition's ability to stick to its own fiscal rules, and repeats Labour's own commitments.

Trade unions have an important role in any decent society, but their stranglehold on the Labour Party is something we must fight against. I will never forget walking the streets of Poland back in 1981, when martial law was in force, and there were armed soldiers on almost every street corner. There it was a trade union, Solidarity, which brought authoritarian Communism to its knees. In the UK Margaret Thatcher recognised the importance of trade unions in society. Indeed one of her first roles in politics was as chairman of Dartford Conservative Trade Unionists. But the battle in British politics today is nothing to do with the work done by local union officials or workers struggling for political freedom.

Westminster has got in a tizz overnight because Andy Burnham has been taped saying that he still favours a 'death tax' of 10-15%, on top of 40% inheritance tax, to pay for social care. Burnham concocted a similar plan before the last election, only for Gordon Brown (even dear old Gordon Brown recognised a loser) drop it. Guido has a recording of Burnham’s comments, which were made at the Fabian Society’s Summer Conference in June. Burnham was musing aimlessly, rather than articulating party policy. But, that said, one might easily draw the conclusion from this and other musings, such as Harriet Harman’s views on sports betting and football, that Labour has a rapacious attitude to your money. In view of the above one would expect Labour to be paying lots of tax.

Derision met Labour when news emerged that more than half of its prospective parliamentary candidates are former special advisers, party workers, researchers, lobbyists or ex-MPs. Ed Miliband (PPE, Corpus Christi College, Oxford) heralded a ‘new politics’ when he took over the party; yet his top team embodies the political class: Ed Balls (PPE, Keble College, Oxford), his wife Yvette Cooper (PPE, Balliol College, Oxford); Angela Eagle (PPE, St John’s College, Oxford) and her sister Maria Eagle (PPE, Pembroke College, Oxford). Some Labour frontbenchers who didn’t go to Oxford worked as Special Advisers for the last Labour government; many others did both. Most of us, of course, have done neither. There is a divide between the rulers and the ruled.

Some of what David Smith, author of the essential Economic Outlook column in the Sunday Times, says today will be salve to George Osborne: ‘…the government intended to spend £722bn in the 2013-14 fiscal year. In fact, it spent £714bn. Spending has been lower each year than set out in 2010. Current spending was originally intended to be £679bn in 2013-14. In fact, it was £668bn. Unusually for any government, spending has come in comfortably within budget. There has been no slippage.’ Other parts will not: ‘Where there has been slippage is in tax receipts, which have been weaker than expected.

David Cameron and Tony Blair faced identical tasks earlier this week. Both wished to force a reluctant group of back-sliders to adopt a more robust and pragmatic position. Cameron wanted Europe to toughen up against Putin. Blair wanted Labour to toughen up against Cameron. Blair’s opportunity was the 20th anniversary of his enthronement as Labour’s leader. Oddly enough the chief beneficiary of that leadership – the Labour party itself – mysteriously forgot to give its messianic champion a chance to reflect on his methods. Instead, he offered his blueprint for further Labour victories to the think-tank, Progress. Blair likes to write in the early morning, in long-hand, seated at a window.

Commons inheritance Emily Benn, granddaughter of Tony and niece of Hilary, has won the right to stand for Labour in Croydon South. Which party produces the most political dynasties? Current MPs who had a parent in the Commons: CONSERVATIVE James Arbuthnot, Richard Benyon, Dominic Grieve, Ben Gummer, Nick Hurd, Andrew Mitchell, Nicholas Soames, Mark Pawsey, Laura Sandys, Robin Walker, Bill Wiggin LABOUR Hilary Benn, John Cryer, Lindsay Hoyle, Anas Sawar, Andy Sawford, Alison Seabeck d.u.p. Ian Paisley Jnr Air scares The loss of a second Malaysian Airways airliner means that the number of worldwide casualties in civilian air disasters — 827 so far this year — has already exceeded that of last year, when 459 died. But it does little to disturb the steady downwards trend.