In our latest View from 22 video, James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss the two top stories from this weekend — the ascension of Jean-Claude Juncker and Jon Cruddas's intervention on Labour's 'dead' hand — and how they will play out over the week.
I’ve always admired Jon Cruddas, and worried a little at his being placed at the centre of Ed Miliband’s policy unit. What happens if he talks sense? Well, my fears were well-founded: a good dollop of common sense has emerged from Cruddas, through the medium of today’s Sunday Times splash. On 21 June, we learn, Cruddas was speaking to Compass, a left-wing policy group, and was kind (too kind) about the IPPR’s ‘Condition of Britain’ report – which I’d recommend to conservatives with a taste for schadenfreude as it’s almost comically vacuous and exposes a Labour movement entirely bereft of new ideas. Cruddas was speaking about the report, saying that it took the IPPR nearly two years to come up with it.
It’s pretty rich hearing the Labour Party criticize Cameron for taking a principled stance on Europe. How vulgar, they say, how amateur. Doesn’t he know that the job is to (as Douglas Alexander put it yesterday) ‘balance’ domestic interests and European ambitions? When I thought that Cameron was following Labour’s ‘sophisticated’ approach – ie, being sellouts – I lambasted him. I had egg on my face pretty quickly: my Telegraph column was published on the day that he said ‘no’ to the Eurozone deal. In my defence, he had set out to sellout – he’d wanted to take a figleaf of protection from the French.
[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_26_June_2014_v4.mp3" title="Fraser Nelson and Isabel Hardman discuss whether Labour should let Miliband be Miliband" startat=934] Listen [/audioplayer]That bacon bap earlier this month was not the cause of Ed Miliband’s unpopularity. Ed Miliband’s unpopularity was the cause of the bacon bap. Scant comfort this will give the Labour leader and his fabled ‘advisers’, but they can stop worrying about food-related photographic gaffes because once the world is out to get you, the world will get you, and if they don’t get you one way they’ll get you another. Sooner or later Mr Miliband will have to eat, and sooner or later a shutter will click as he opens his mouth.
Listen: listen to ‘Spectator debate: independence is the greatest threat to Edinburgh’ on Audioboo.
Michael Gove has this afternoon replied to Labour's questions about Dominic Cumming's access to the Education department since finishing as a special adviser. Coffee House has got hold of the letter first. Labour became oddly fixated on whether or not Cummings was still visiting the department, rather than on his stinging criticisms of David Cameron and the Number 10 operation as 'bumbling' and a stumbling block for reform. So Gove's reply to Kevin Brennan's letter demanding more details is quite easy. He says he doesn't know how often Cummings has visited the department. And that's that, save for a gratuitous and teasing reference to the long-term economic plan... Here's the letter in full: Thank you for your letter of 17 June about my former special adviser, Dominic Cummings.
That Ed Miliband is even having to state that he wants to carry on as Labour leader if he loses the general election when his party is ahead in the polls shows what a mess the operation around him is. There are a number of Shadow Cabinet members who seem more interested in what happens after the 2015 election than in their party's chances in that election. Perhaps this is because they have decided that though their party is ahead now, voters will panic about Miliband as they start to try imagining him as Prime Minister. Better to get your off-the-record briefings in now, and not make too much of an effort batting for this guy when you think you're doomed. The problem is, of course, that this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
‘As someone who started work behind a fry station in McDonald’s, I know that any job is better than no job,’ says former Labour minister turned Miliband demotee, Liam Byrne in a speech today. ‘But I also know that a good job is better than a bad one and right now we’re simply not producing enough good jobs’. Byrne graduated to become a merchant banker at Rothschild. But he hasn't always been so critical of his ‘would you like fries with that’ days? Just a few months ago, he was reading from a very different menu: ‘One of the highlights of the week was a visit to Bordesley Green McDonalds [sic].
Here's a funny thing: Labour claims to be the ‘party of work', but the Tories have reasonable claim to be the workers’ party, given that they’ve overseen the creation of 1.5 million new jobs. Anyway, it was one of the slogans that shadow work and pensions secretary Rachel Reeves incanted on her Sunday Politics interview this morning, when she seemed to have a pretty torrid time of it. listen to ‘Rachel Reeves ’ on Audioboo She had to defend her party's leader against his cratering approval ratings and the embarrassment of a leaked election strategy document which shows that people don't trust him on immigration, the economy or welfare.
Ed Balls knows how to talk to bankers. Having been Gordon Brown’s right hand man and City Minister under the last government, he is well known in the Square Mile—and far more popular than you might think. Earlier this month, Balls was to be found having lunch at HSBC’s private bank in St James. He was there to address the chairmen of the UK banks. Those present left this private lunch with the distinct impression that Balls was presenting himself as a restraining influence on Ed Miliband, and someone who could protect them from some of the Labour leader's more radical policies. Balls made clear to the group that he was a 'sceptic' of regional banking.
David Cameron has not had the best of weeks. At home, he is engaged in a mucky fight with the former government aide Dominic Cummings and abroad he is facing defeat in his attempt to stop Jean-Claude Juncker from becoming president of the European Commission. But in the papers today, it is Ed Miliband who has all the problems. The Guardian splashes on how Labour frontbenchers do not want Miliband to stay on after an election defeat. If this story had appeared in almost any other paper, Miliband’s team could have tried to dismiss it as the price you pay for standing up to Rupert Murdoch or backing Leveson. But with The Guardian, this is much harder to do.
David Blunkett has announced that he'll be standing down at the next election. 'It is clear that the leadership of the party wish to see new faces in ministerial office and a clear break with the past,' he said — I'm not sure if that's a coded reference to Miliband's unfinished purge of those who ran Labour at a time when it won elections. But it did make me think of two things Blunkett's career has been absolutely extraordinary, a blind man who was still able to read so much that he'd shoot me a caustic email, sometimes even threatening to sue me, if I wrote anything about him that he considered unfair. He was never under-briefed, and never showed any sign of his disability. He managed politics - the rousing speeches, even the sex scandals - as well as anyone.
It's tempting given the optimistic mood on the Conservative benches at the moment to think that everything is just great with the economy. Not so, according to today's borrowing figures from the ONS, which show that government borrowing was higher than expected: George Osborne borrowed £13.3bn in May, up £0.7bn from the same month last year, and much higher than the £9.35bn forecast. Tax receipts have been weaker than expected, which has contributed to higher net borrowing. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/L158N/index.html"] Labour is saying that Osborne is now set to break his promise to balance the books by next year, while also arguing that it will balance the books but 'in a fairer way'.
Rigorous welfare reforms for the under-25s must be combined with targeted tax breaks. That’s the best way to get young Britain going and galvanise the new electorate. For keen observers, Ed Miliband’s speech on welfare may sound familiar. Last November Labour dropped plans — to scrap benefits for the under-25s — like a hot potato after vicious attacks from activists. Yet a few months on and Miliband rehashes these, pledging to continue good work this government is already doing, for instance young people already receive a lower rate of Jobseeker’s Allowance and can already take up training and continue receiving their benefits. It seems that Ed Miliband is the timid toad sat at the edge of the pond, just dipping his toe-in.
The last Labour government oversaw a major expansion of support for families, with new investment in childcare, tax credits, maternity leave and children’s centres. Despite this investment, the left still struggles to demonstrate its ‘pro-family’ credentials and to affirm its backing for parents and committed family relationships. Too often, this leaves us conceding important political territory, allowing the right to claim it understands families best. In a major new report, The Condition of Britain, IPPR argues that we need to show we back parents who are working hard to raise their children – including unequivocally supporting committed relationships. For most of us, family is what we care about most, the embodiment of our aspirations and obligations.
It is surely only a matter of time before someone with a mischievous glint in their eye invites the Labour MP for Bishop Auckland, Helen Goodman, to open a fête in a place with which she is entirely unfamiliar, e.g. Bishop Auckland. Helen recently turned up as guest of honour at a fête in a village in the constituency she has represented for nine years. She delivered a moving eulogy to Ingleton, praising its beautiful waterfalls and deep, labyrinthine caves. The villagers listened with a dawning hilarity. Mrs Goodman had confused the village she represents with one of the same name some 70 miles away in the Yorkshire Dales. There are no caves or waterfalls in Ingleton, Co Durham.
Ed Miliband’s popularity ratings have sunk below those of Nick Clegg this week, so what can Labour do? In this week’s View from 22 podcast, James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss the Miliband problem —we’ve put together the video highlights above. Will Labour contemplate sacking him? Is there anyone else who could do a better job? And will the upcoming shadow cabinet reshuffle improve his standing? You can listen to the full discussion on the podcast tomorrow morning. Subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer every week.
Helen Goodman, the Labour MP for Bishop Auckland in Durham, was born in Nottinghamshire and brought up in Derbyshire, so you would have thought that she might take extra care to brush up on her local knowledge of Durham to avoid accusations of ‘carpet-bagging’. The Northern Echo gleefully reports: ‘The village of Ingleton is so famous for its beautiful waterfalls and deep caves that MP Helen Goodman waxed lyrical about them as she opened a County Durham fair. Unfortunately for the Bishop Auckland MP she was talking about Ingleton, in North Yorkshire – which lies 70 miles away.’ The reaction from the local population has been blistering. Take Durham resident Tony Todd, who claims: ‘I think she is a disgrace and she has made a lasting impression on me.
Today, dozens of campaign groups rushed to defend Oxfam’s advert attacking government austerity for ‘forcing more and more people into poverty’, claiming complaints about politicisation were an attempt to ‘silence legitimate debate’. In a free country, pressure groups are part of the fabric of our democracy. But, if they choose to be charities for ‘public benefit’, they must remain independent to justify extensive tax breaks. Oxfam sounds like an echo chamber for the Labour Party – and taxpayers aren’t there to subsidise that. Like the Hollywood blockbuster it was mimicking, Oxfam’s ad mixes fact and fiction.
Judging by the tone of the commentary at the moment, you would think that Labour were badly behind in the polls. In fact, they are ahead by a few points—a margin that would still give Miliband a majority. But what should worry the Labour leader most is that every time the Labour machine is put under scrutiny it is found wanting. Tom Watson, in an intervention that will further worry leadership loyalists, has been out and about making this point this morning. Last month’s election campaign when Miliband didn’t know the name of the candidate he was campaigning for in Swindon was all too typical of Labour’s failings.
