Boris johnson

What more-or-less all Tory MPs seem to have missed is that Philip Hammond, the ex-chancellor who has become the anti-no-deal Sandinista, agrees with Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings on the big thing that matters. Hammond loudly – and Johnson, with his consigliere Cummings sotto voce – all accept that EU leaders and negotiators do not see ANY way of negotiating a new Brexit deal on the basis of what Britain's new Prime Minister says he wants. As one Brussels official confirmed to me, even if EU leaders – and especially Ireland's Taoiseach Leo Varadkar – were prepared to do as Johnson asks and rip up the backstop, which they most definitely are not, they could not do so unless Johnson offered a detailed proposal for what would replace the backstop.

Remember #rorywalks? This was the hashtag created to follow the progress of Tory leadership candidate Rory Stewart as he travelled around Britain meeting people in places detached from mainstream politics. One encounter that sticks in my mind happened when he met a couple from east London, who told him that they wouldn’t start a family because their local area was too unsafe to bring a child into the world. Whether apocryphal or not, it is clear that there are parts of Britain where criminality and incivility has become normal, battering the morale of our most vulnerable citizens.

Is Boris Johnson the luckiest prime minister ever? This week, the Government can borrow money for ten years at 0.48 per cent and for thirty years at 1.16 per cent. At these rates, it would irresponsible not to borrow more. The age of austerity can be brought to an end at exactly the same moment we leave the EU, opening up vast new opportunities for investment in infrastructure and public services. The Cameron government had to cope with the aftermath of the great recession and lived in fear of being heavily in debt if real interest rates went up. No such fear need trouble Boris. If the Government issues more 30-year bonds it will not matter if interest rates go up in the future. For every 30-year bond valued at £100 the Government will receive £107.

On the day Boris Johnson became Prime Minister, I said his most important appointment was that of Dominic Cummings – who had run the triumphant pro-Brexit, Vote Leave referendum campaign – as his most senior government adviser. It signalled Johnson was not bluffing when he pledged to extract the UK from the EU do or die, no ifs no buts, deal or no deal – because there are few political operators on the planet more ruthless, focused and remorseless than Cummings. I imagine he has OODA tattooed on his bottom (look it up). There has however been a bit of a misunderstanding about precisely what Cummings agreed to do for Johnson and for how long. So here are the terms of their compact.

It is said that our political system is ‘broken’ simply because the passions aroused by Brexit have effectively created a hung parliament. So what to do about it? Athenians would have dealt with the problem by ostracism. Its purpose was to send one citizen into exile. Once a year Athenian citizens (all males over 18) meeting in assembly got the chance to vote for an ostracism. It was held by citizens inscribing the name of their candidate on a potsherd (ostrakon). As long as at least 6,000 votes were cast, the man with the most votes was sent into exile for ten years. He did not suffer disgrace, lose citizenship or property, just his ability to reside in Athens. About 10,000 such ostraka survive. Some citizens spoilt them.

The argument about whether Boris Johnson would have to resign if he lost a confidence vote is continuing to rage at Westminster. There is, though, an angle to this argument that is being neglected. Right now, the Labour leadership is clear that it won’t back anyone other than Jeremy Corbyn to be prime minister. This means that even if Boris Johnson lost a no-confidence vote, it is not clear who could command the confidence of the Commons. With no alternative government ready to go, then an election would be the obvious answer.  Things become more complicated if an alternative government could somehow be formed. In these circumstances, there would be more pressure on Boris Johnson to resign.

Talk of an early election has been on the rise in recent months as the Brexit arithmetic has looked increasingly shaky. This week it has hit fever pitch. Boris Johnson announcing extra funds for the NHS has been read as a sign the party is getting campaign ready while party chairman James Cleverly set the cat among the pigeons at the weekend after he used a broadcast interview to say only that the Tories would not 'initiate' a general election. The verdict: an early election is beginning to be seen as inevitable.