Boris johnson

How many Tory MPs will vote against the government this week in a bid to stop a no deal Brexit? When MPs return to the House of Commons on Tuesday from the summer recess, a cross-party group of MPs – with the help of John Bercow – are expected to try to take control of the order paper and push through a bill to legislate against no deal. As James revealed at the weekend, No. 10 is planning to dissuade Tories from joining the efforts by threatening to deselect any Tory MPs who vote for such measures.

What is going to happen next week in parliament? Most anti-no-deal rebels see it as their last opportunity to block Britain leaving the European Union without a deal, but what they haven't yet agreed on is how best to do it. There are a number of likely scenarios, some of which intertwine with one another, and to show how chaotic the next few days are likely to be, I've drawn up a flowchart of how things might pan out (you can click on the image to view a larger version of the chaos): The most likely parliamentary route is through an emergency debate under Standing Order 24, which the rebels hope they can use to seize control of the order paper. But that route alone is fraught with difficulty.

Has Boris Johnson done a Charles I and shut down Parliament indefinitely? The headlines this week might lead you to think so. 'Uproar as Boris Johnson shuts down parliament to protect Brexit plan', reported the FT. John Bercow called it 'a constitutional outrage'. 'It's tantamount to a coup against Parliament,' raged former attorney general Dominic Grieve. Nicola Sturgeon called it 'a dictatorship'. Yet the reality hardly lives up to the rhetoric. These are the facts: Parliament will return from summer recess on 3 September as planned. Parliament will not sit from mid-September to early October during the three-week party conference season – also as planned and as happens every year.

So what now for the opponents of no deal? Boris Johnson has dramatically called their bluff, and as Mr Steerpike reports, not all of them are taking this particularly well. Both proponents and opponents of Britain leaving without a deal are engaged in a political wrestling match, with all the theatrics that entails. Both are working out which parliamentary mechanisms will suit them best. Both are also accusing the other of blocking democracy, pretending not to notice the similarities in their tactics. Neither will admit that the other side has a right to do what it has chosen to, instead preferring to call it a 'constitutional outrage'. The problem for those trying to stop no-deal is that their team isn't working as well as Boris Johnson's.

I’ve learned only one thing at the G7 summit of big rich countries here in Biarritz: Boris Johnson absolutely loves being Prime Minister. There’s little of the conspicuous sense of duty that weighed on the shoulders of Theresa May, Gordon Brown and Sir John Major. Nor is there that unnerving claim to embody the spirit of a nation that Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher perhaps made too often and believed too much. There’s a touch of David Cameron’s Old Etonian entitlement, the idea that it would be odd if he weren’t PM. But mostly Johnson simply seems to be having fun – whether by pointing a joshing finger at the imperious president of France or telling an incredulous President of the EU that they agree on absolutely everything.

As was to be expected, the EU’s reaction to Boris Johnson’s offer of revisiting the Withdrawal Agreement if the backstop is removed has been to reject it out of hand. But there are still 68 days to go before the UK is due to leave the EU and if the EU’s resolve wavers between now and then, Boris’s high-risk strategy could come back to haunt him. Reading Martin Howe’s evisceration of the Withdrawal Agreement, one is reminded of Jerome K Jerome’s visit to the doctor in Three Men in a Boat. Rather than explaining that he was suffering from the symptoms of pretty much every disease known to mankind, J found it easier to tell his doctor the one thing that was not wrong with him: housemaid’s knee.