Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Hammond to MPs: make up your mind on Brexit or the domestic policies get it

Philip Hammond’s squeeze message to MPs trying to work out how to vote on Brexit over the next few days was clear: if they don’t reach a consensus, then there won’t be lots of lovely spending on important domestic policies such as social care.  Theresa May has been so busy procrastinating on Brexit that her failure to make decisions on these policy areas has not attracted the level of attention it deserves. The social care green paper, for instance, has been pushed back by over a year. This isn’t as much to do with Brexit as ministers like to make out, by the way, but all the same it is now highly convenient for the Chancellor to link the two.

Charles Moore

The problem with Theresa May

I had forgotten, until I checked this week, that Theresa May timed the general election of June 2017 in order to have a mandate for the Brexit negotiations. They began ten days after the nation voted. She conveyed no sense, at the time, of how the election result had changed her situation. In her beginning is her end. Political leadership requires imagination. She has never displayed any. Why, for example, did she fly to Strasbourg on Monday night? She made the same mistake in December 2017 when she took a dawn flight to Brussels after making a hash of the Irish problem. The point of dramatically winging your way out of the country is to be seen to win something. Instead, Mrs May is the spurned suppliant.

Isabel Hardman

Theresa May failed to set out her plan at PMQs

The Prime Minister’s Questions before an economic statement is usually rather pointless, with both party leaders going through the motions. But this isn’t a usual week, and so Jeremy Corbyn had genuinely important questions to ask Theresa May, and the answers mattered far more than anything Philip Hammond will say shortly. Naturally, Corbyn didn’t exactly rise to the occasion, delivering his questions as though he’d read them for the first time. But his final demand of the Prime Minister was important: he asked her to tell MPs what her plan was now. May had told the Chamber that because her voice was still coming out as a croak, her answers would be somewhat shorter than usual.

Ross Clark

The no-deal Brexit tariffs are nothing to be afraid of

What strange knots some tie themselves in over Brexit. The attitude of some of those opposed to Britain leaving the EU is this when it comes to free trade: when conducted with the EU, it is essential for our prosperity. But when conducted with any other country it is a dark threat to our very being. How else to explain the reaction of CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn to the publication of the Government’s proposed tariff rates, which would apply in the even of a no-deal Brexit. The new regime would see some tariffs imposed on EU goods which currently enter the country tariff-free – 18 per cent of EU imports by value would fall into this category. But overall it would mean a sharp drop in tariffs on goods from all around the world.

Alex Massie

The Brexiteers have blown it | 13 March 2019

If, as Rod Liddle says, Brexit has been killed there is no shortage of suspects. 75 of them, in fact. That’s the number of Conservative MPs who voted against the Government in last night’s second – but not necessarily final – meaningful vote. They wanted Brexit and then, when they were given it, they decided it wasn’t the kind of Brexit they wanted after all.  Fanaticism invariably devours its adherents and so it is with Brexit. The Brexiteers wanted the ball but once they had it they decided they did not actually want it after all. They had their chance and they blew it. All they had to do was vote for the withdrawal agreement. Now they have rejected that, there is little reason to pay them any further attention.

Steerpike

Chief Whip Julian Smith’s small win

At the end of last year, Mr Steerpike was somewhat sceptical that it was a good idea to invite an ITV film crew into the whips' office, as Theresa May headed for a defeat of historic proportions on the first vote on her Brexit deal. When Chief Whip Julian Smith failed to convince the backbencher Philip Davies to back the deal, live on camera, this only seemed to confirm that it wasn't exactly the best decision: https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1070727441776328706?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Perhaps an apology is in order though. Mr S can report that although Davies did not back May's deal first time round, last night he was finally won over and supported the Prime Minister in the voting lobby. Clearly the Chief Whip was playing the long game after all.

Tuesday

Johannes de Jong

Why the EU is so keen for Theresa May’s Brexit deal to pass

In recent weeks, two big beasts in the European political arena pushed forward their respective ideas for the future of the European Union. France's president Emmanuel Macron repeated his dream of a big EU. And the leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer responded in kind with a vision of an EU that is larger than it is now but smaller than the EU ‘a la Macron’. In both visions, the reality of Brexit was conspicuously absent. The decision to ignore Brexit in these visions of the future EU is easily understood if one gets the updated ‘deal’ that Theresa May struck with the EU overnight. ‘This is it’, declared Jean-Claude Juncker. There wouldn’t be a third chance for the UK.

Charles Day

The silence from Geoffrey Cox bodes ill for May’s deal

The loudest sound this morning is the silence from Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney-General. The test for Theresa May's discussion with Brussels is whether it means the UK will be caught indefinitely in the backstop. And the person who decides this is Mr Cox. No10 misrepresented the nature of the backstop when it was signed: some (then) Cabinet members go further and say that they were lied to. Then No10's own representation of the Withdrawal Agreement was contradicted by the Attorney-General. This is what led us to this point: No10 has, alas, proved that it cannot be trusted to interpret legal advice. Cox has proven that he can be trusted.  Cox is said to be 'agonising' this morning and I can see why.

Her Majesty’s Government

Full text: Theresa May’s ‘unilateral declaration’ on the Northern Ireland backstop

Declaration by Her Majesty’s Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning the Northern Ireland Protocol The United Kingdom reiterates its wish to establish a future partnership that is as close and strong as possible, given the global challenges it shares with the European Union, and underlines its commitment to embark on preparations immediately after the signature of the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure that negotiations on the future relationship can start as soon as possible after withdrawal.

Rod Liddle

Brexit is now dead

And that, my lovely friends, is it for Brexit. You kippers and ERGers who think we'll leave with no deal, are deluded. They will not let it happen. They were never going to let it happen. Brexit has been killed by a Parliament which by a two-to-one majority never wanted it, despite what lip service they paid to respecting the will of the people. The liberal elite has won. I suspect it will be its last victory before it is expunged.

James Forsyth

Why we could be heading for a third vote on May’s Brexit deal

Late last night, there was a sense of optimism among ministers that the government’s revised deal might have a chance. But those hopes were crushed this morning by Geoffrey Cox’s blunt legal advice. With Cox declaring that the legal risk was unchanged, the DUP were never going to back the deal and that meant the bulk of the ERG wouldn’t either. In the end, the withdrawal agreement went down by 149 votes—at the worst end of expectations. May immediately declared that there would be a vote on no deal tomorrow, and it would be a free vote. May’s justification for this was the referendum precedent, but for the governing party to have no position on the most important issue to come before the Commons in years is remarkable.

The Spectator

Full text: Theresa May reacts to her Brexit deal defeat

I profoundly regret the decision that this House has taken tonight. I continue to believe that by far the best outcome is that the UK leaves the EU in an orderly fashion with a deal, and that the deal we have negotiated is the best and indeed the only deal available. Mr Speaker, I would like to set out briefly how the Government means to proceed. Two weeks ago, I made a series of commitments from this despatch box regarding the steps we would take in the event that this House rejected the deal on offer. I stand by those commitments in full. Therefore, tonight we will table a motion for debate tomorrow to test whether the House supports leaving the European Union without a deal on 29 March.

Tom Goodenough

Theresa May’s Brexit deal defeated again in the Commons

Theresa May's revised Brexit deal has been voted down decisively by MPs. The Prime Minister's Withdrawal Agreement was defeated by 391 to 242 votes, a margin of 149 votes. May had said if her 'improved' deal did not pass, there was a risk of 'no Brexit at all'. But while the number of Tory rebels was down on the first meaningful vote, which the Government lost by a margin of 230, it wasn't enough for the PM's deal to pass. May reacted to the defeat by promising a free vote in the Commons tomorrow on whether MPs would back a no-deal Brexit. On Thursday, May said that the Commons would vote on a possible Brexit extension.

Steerpike

Boris Johnson: Why I won’t vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal

Boris Johnson says he will still vote against Theresa May's Brexit deal. Here is his verdict on the PM's revised Withdrawal Agreement: I sincerely hoped that the Government would be able to make the wholly modest changes that this House urged them to make. And that there would be no risk that this country would find itself trapped in the backstop or no risk that we would lose our democratic right to make laws for this country, or pass them to a foreign entity for all time as we’re in danger of doing. But whatever the Government tried to do it has not I’m afraid succeeded. Now I congratulate the Prime Minister and the Attorney-General on their efforts.

Steerpike

Corbyn backs no-deal Brexit

When it comes to Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn is still keeping his options open. But the same can't be said of his brother. Piers Corbyn has taken a breather from tweeting about climate change to throw his weight behind a no-deal Brexit. The Labour leader's older sibling wrote: 'The threat of CrashOut catastrophe is nonsense'. 'Nodeal OnlyDeal', he added: Mr S. thinks it might be awkward in the Corbyn family if Jeremy does end up backing a second referendum...

Katy Balls

European Research Group split over vote on May’s revamped deal

How heavily will Theresa May's deal be defeated this evening? After the DUP announced that they would not be backing the deal in light of the new concessions, it looks near impossible for it to pass this evening. However, there is still much to play for when it comes to managing the size of the defeat. The so-called 'star chamber' of Brexiteer legal minds have said that the changes to the deal fall short of what was asked of May. This is in line with the Attorney General's legal advice – which warned the risk of being trapped in the backstop remained. Yet despite this there has been a steady drip of Leave MPs who voted against the deal last time coming out to say that this time they will be backing it (see Steerpike's rolling list here).

Isabel Hardman

DUP confirms it won’t support May’s Brexit deal

The DUP has confirmed that it will be voting against Theresa May's Brexit deal this evening. A party spokesman said that 'sufficient progress has not been achieved at this time' and that 'it is clear that the risks remain that the UK would be unable to lawfully exit the backstop were it to be activated'. Along with the European Research Group's recommendation to vote down the deal, this means that the Prime Minister's strategy of trying to win over the DUP and the Brexiteers in her own party has failed. It means that she is facing a landslide defeat tonight. The Commons benches behind the Prime Minister as she is giving her speech at the start of the debate are eerily empty, almost as if a good number of Conservative MPs can't face being there to watch government disintegrating.

James Kirkup

MPs were elected to lead, but they are opting for turmoil and disaster

Whether Britain leaves the European Union and the manner of that departure, are the most consequential decisions that British politicians will face for a generation. The choices our leaders and representatives are making this week are as important as any they will make in their careers. And as things stand, with the European Research Group of Conservative MPs and most Labour MPs pledging to vote against the proposed Withdrawal Agreement, the House of Commons will tonight deliberately and knowingly vote for the country to take an economic, political and constitutional leap into the unknown. MPs who were elected to lead will instead bring the country’s future down to the roll of a dice, unable to say with any certainty what the results of their vote will be.