Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Tuesday

Katy Balls

Geoffrey Cox’s legal verdict deals big blow to May’s revamped deal

In a rare interview over the weekend, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox told the Mail on Sunday that he would not be pushed into giving dubious legal advice on the backstop. He said he would 'not change' his opinion unless he was certain there was 'no legal risk of us being indefinitely detained in the backstop'; ‘My professional reputation is far more important to me than my reputation as a politician. If the risk of being trapped in the backstop had not been removed, then I would make it as clear and plain and in exactly the same way as I did on November 13.’ Today that promise has come to fruition and unfortunately for Theresa May, Cox's honesty could spell curtains for her Brexit deal. No. 10 were pessimistic last night over whether the concessions would be enough for Cox.

Steerpike

Geoffrey Cox clashes with Channel 4’s Jon Snow

It's here. It's Brexit day, again. And Channel 4's Jon Snow and Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney-General, have come to blows on Twitter. Snow tweeted the latest from his 'lawyer contact' this morning on what Cox's verdict is on the Prime Minister's verdict. It's safe to say Cox was not impressed: Well, at least that's cleared that up then. Mr S thinks Theresa May will be hoping that Cox isn't quite so rude when it comes to him delivering the verdict on her Brexit deal...

Robert Peston

Theresa May has failed to guarantee the backstop won’t last forever

Those Tory Brexiter MPs who WANT to believe the EU has no desire to trap the UK in the customs union via the Northern Ireland backstop will be reassured by the agreement between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker on a new legal instrument saying the EU must negotiate in good faith to avoid the backstop coming into force at all, or for long. They will also be encouraged by a change to the UK/EU political declaration that will step up work on putting in place alternative arrangements to obviate the need for the backstop - and by the UK government’s declaration of what it would do to get out of the backstop if the EU is ever seen to be trying to imprison the country in it.

Katy Balls

What Theresa May needs to go right today to avoid another historic defeat

In order to turn things around with her Brexit deal, Theresa May needs a domino effect. She needs to somehow get 116 MPs to change their vote from last time and back her deal. If the Prime Minister is to have any chance of passing her deal – or significantly reducing the scale of the defeat from 230 votes – May must first convince the DUP that the legally-binding concessions she has secured from Brussels are enough to stop the backstop from becoming permanent. The Attorney General's legal advice could prove pivotal in the matter (and there are doubts in government that he will change it) – though given that Nigel Dodds is a respected legal mind, the DUP's Westminster leader's verdict will be just as important.

Monday

Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson: leaving on 29 March is the only way to preserve the UK’s self-respect

This article is a edited version of Boris Johnson's speech in parliament today: I myself had sincerely hoped that the government would be able to make the wholly modest changes that this House urged them to make and that there would be no risk that this country would find itself trapped in the backstop, and no risk that we would lose our democratic right to make laws for this country or pass them to a foreign entity for all time - as we are now in danger of doing. But whatever the government tried to do it has not I'm afraid succeeded. No, I congratulate the prime minister and the Attorney General on their efforts. The result is that like Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden they have sowed an apron of fig leaves that does nothing to conceal the embarrassment and indignity of the UK.

James Forsyth

Has May got enough?

There was no triumphalism in Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker’s press conference. Nor was there much detail. May talked about how the joint interpretative instrument meant that the backstop could be challenged and taken to arbitration if the EU was trying to apply ‘the backstop indefinitely’. What May did not mention was how this arbitration mechanism would work. Multiple Cabinet Ministers think, after discussion tonight, that the arbitration does not refer to the ECJ. If that is the case, it will convince a slug of Tory MPs that this arbitration mechanism has teeth. The second aspect is the aspiration to have alternative arrangements in place by the end of December 2020, in other words at the end of the transition.

Katy Balls

Brexit breakthrough? Lidington tries to woo MPs with ‘legally binding changes’

There's long been a view among senior Brexiteers that the way the EU and UK would agree a deal would be by running the negotiations down to the wire and Brussels offering a last minute concession. This appeared to be the strategy in play on Monday night as Theresa May found herself locked in talks on changes to the backstop in Strasbourg with less than 24 hours to go until her deal is due to be voted on in the Commons. In turn, David Lidington was given the undesirable task of addressing frustrated MP in the Chamber. Theresa May's de facto deputy adopted an apologetic tone at the despatch box – apologising first for the lack of prior notice to his statement and then saying sorry for not being able to offer MPs a complete update on the negotiations which are ongoing.

Ross Clark

The choice voters must be given if there is a second referendum

Of all the possible outcomes on Brexit one stands out as more unpleasant, more outrageous, more guaranteed to provoke mass anger in the country than any other. No, not Britain leaving the EU on 29 March with no deal – however much that would send some into their imaginary bunkers for fear of the sky falling in. It is Britain being made to vote in a second referendum – without the option of no deal on the ballot paper. Worryingly, this is exactly the outcome which a large part of the Labour party – including, crucially, the leadership – seem intent on achieving. Two weeks ago, the leadership produced a briefing for its MPs which raised the possibility of Labour backing a version of May’s deal – on condition that it was affirmed in a referendum.

Steerpike

The mystery of Tom Watson and the ‘Future Britain Group’ website

When seven Labour MPs formally announced that they were leaving the party to form the Independent Group on 18 February, it didn't take long for deputy Labour leader Tom Watson to release a video about their departure. In his statement, Watson lamented that his colleagues had decided to leave and suggested that there should be a reshuffle of Labour's front bench, to accommodate the 'Social democratic and democratic socialist traditions' of the party. Three weeks later, on the 9 March, Watson changed tack and announced that instead he would form a new party for social democrat MPs within Labour, called 'Future Britain Group', which had its first meeting today.

James Forsyth

There may be a Brexit breakthrough on the backstop

There’s increasing chatter in Westminster about a possible Brexit breakthrough. The argument goes that if the Tusk / Juncker letter of the 14th of January was turned into a protocol—which would be legally binding, then there would be grounds for Geoffrey Cox to change his legal advice.

James Forsyth

There are no good options left for Theresa May

There are no good options left for Theresa May. Barring a remarkable turnaround (and there is more optimism on the government side than there was this morning), she is not going to get enough on the backstop to satisfy the DUP and so her deal will not pass on Tuesday. Her deal failing will trigger a series of events that will involve the Commons not only compelling the government to request an Article 50 extension but also seeking to take over the Brexit process. Over the weekend, the views of key Tories on how disastrous this would be have hardened up.

Steerpike

Watch: Jo Coburn gives Paul Mason the death stare

On Friday we saw Will Self and Mark Francois have a huge stare-off on Politics Live. Monday has arrived, and this time it was the turn of businesswoman Michelle Dewberry, left-wing commentator Paul Mason, and presenter Jo Coburn to clash. The argument began after a short break in the programme, when Coburn suggested that there had been a heated discussion between Mason and Dewberry off-camera in the pause. Dewberry responded: 'that's a very diplomatic way of putting it,' and then launched into a scathing attack on Paul Mason, saying: 'You have been deeply rude to me in the break, you find that funny… when I just called you out on that you just sat and laughed.

Robert Peston

Will Theresa May pledge to quit to get her deal through?

Forget Brexit (I dare you!). The game now, in the Tory Party, is positioning for the looming leadership election. Because I can find no one in the Cabinet or on the backbenches who still believes Theresa May will be PM for longer than a few weeks, such is their fury and agony that we’re 18 days from Brexit and we still don’t know the how, the when, or even the whether we'll leave (OK, so it was impossible to forget Brexit – sorry!). Even those who think the petard that’s hoisting her was made in Brussels say she had a choice about attaching herself to it.

James Kirkup

MPs have failed on a grand scale over Brexit

A Commons defeat for Theresa May’s proposed EU withdrawal agreement this week is priced in. Westminster has shrugged and accepted another Commons drubbing as a given. MPs’ refusal to back the deal is just another fact of life, something mundane and barely worth commenting on; all the action is in considering reactions and responses to that defeat: will Mrs May cling on? Who might follow her? But that assumed Commons refusal deserves more attention because it represents failure, failure on a grand scale. Failure of leadership and failure of courage. MPs’ failure to do their jobs. I think MPs should back the deal. I don’t think it’s a very good deal, because I don’t think any Brexit deal is good.

Sunday

Katy Balls

Women With Balls podcast: the Jess Phillips edition

When Jess Phillips first entered parliament in 2015, she quickly made the headlines after she told Diane Abbott to 'f--- off' when they had a disagreement over whether Jeremy Corbyn had appointed enough women to his shadow cabinet. Since then, Phillips is frequently in the news for speaking up on the political issues she cares about – recently going viral for a speech on olives in which she lambasted the government for earnings caps on immigrants. I'm delighted to have Phillips as a guest on The Spectator's Women With Balls podcast. When we spoke last month, we discussed what it's like to go viral, growing up in a political family and her perspective on class in Westminster.

Matthew Taylor

Sunday Shows Round-up: Sir Keir Starmer – Three month Brexit extension is ‘doable’

Jeremy Hunt - We face risk of 'losing Brexit' Andrew Marr was joined by the Foreign Secretary ahead of a critical week for the government. Although the Brexit deadline day has been enshrined in law as the 29th of March, the difficulties in securing a viable withdrawal agreement have prompted calls for the UK government to seek more time for negotiations. With the Commons soon set to vote on whether the UK should seek to extend the Article 50 process, Hunt told Marr what he felt this could mean for the future of Brexit: [embed]https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1104701313739251715[/embed] JH: This is a very important moment for us.

Lucy Vickery

Spectator competition winners: Killer-Heels Tess and Boris the Johnson – Westminster hard-boiled

Your latest challenge was to submit a short story in the style of hard-boiled crime fiction set in the corridors of power. Raymond Chandler cast a long shadow over an entry bristling with stinging one-liners, dames, black humour and grandstanding similes laid on with a trowel. The mean streets of Westminster were the most popular setting, though there were glimpses of Brussels and the Oval Office too. Commiserations to unlucky losers Bill Greenwell, D.A. Prince and Alan Millard. High fives to the winners, printed below, who trouser £25 each. Adrian Fry Down these dull corridors a man must go who is not himself dull.

Nigel Lawson

The purpose of Article 50 was to make it as hard as possible to leave

I read Paul Collier’s article in your 23 February issue, which has just reached me in la France profonde, with interest. The principal author of Article 50 was John Kerr, aka Lord Kerr of Kinlochard. I have known John for quite a long time, and enjoyed his company: when I became chancellor in 1983 he was my principal private secretary. He explained to me some time ago, before the referendum, that the purpose of Article 50 was to make it as difficult as possible for a country to leave the European Union. A clever man, he did a good job. Nigel Lawson House of Lords, London SW1 This letter appeared in this week's magazine.

Steerpike

Anna Soubry and the Independent Group don’t make a good fit

What does the Independent Group actually stand for? We know what they are against: Brexit and anti-Semitism. But so far the fledgling group has been somewhat shy about coming up with policies. With TIG MPs this week reportedly entering talks with the Electoral Commission about become a political party, they had better get a move on. Only Mr S. suspects the task won't be an easy one, given that one of their members – former Tory MP Anna Soubry – seems to take a difference stance to the bulk of their colleagues on most issues. To help out, Steerpike has compiled a list of where Anna Soubry stands compared to her new colleagues: Brexit: It's safe to say that when it comes to Brexit, TIG and Soubry are a match made in Parliamentary heaven.