Middle East

The Iran war is just what Putin’s depleted coffers need

Of all the parties watching the chaos in the Middle East unfold, one should be rubbing its hands together with particular satisfaction. Russia has not fired a shot in this conflict, lost no allies it cannot afford to lose, and has so far gained rather a lot, with more to come. A cynic might call it the perfect war for Vladimir Putin. Moscow’s public reaction has been characteristically theatrical. The Foreign Ministry denounced American and Israeli actions as a ‘reckless step’ and a ‘dangerous adventure’. Things have gone no further. There has been no announcement of political or military support for Iran from the Kremlin – nor is there likely

Will Kurdish insurgents help America in Iran?

The US and Israel rapidly established air superiority over Iran in the first days of the war now under way in the Middle East. Regimes, however, cannot be destroyed from the air. President Trump clearly has no intention of committing a large ground force to Iran. If Washington and Jerusalem are serious in their stated ambition of destroying the 47-year-old Islamic regime in Tehran, then they are in obvious need of allies on the ground. A number of credible reports in regional media in recent days have identified a relationship of cooperation between the US and Israel and a number of armed Iranian Kurdish groups located in the Iraq-Iran border

Iran’s Supreme Leader is just as bloodthirsty as his father

The announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as the next supreme leader of Iran represents not only continuity in the Islamic Republic’s bloodstained rule but also an even darker turn for the Iranian establishment. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has long been associated with radical currents in Tehran. His supreme leadership, for however long it lasts, underscores that the Iranian regime will continue to be a thorn in the side of US interests. This mythmaking and symbolism are important in the Islamic Republic Mojtaba, who was born in 1969 in Mashhad, resembles his father physically but also experientially. His earliest memories from his childhood were of

The days are numbered for Iran’s new Supreme Leader

As the war continues, the Iranian regime has pressed ahead with appointing its new Supreme Leader. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, was formally elevated in Tehran even as Israeli and American strikes continue to dismantle the regime’s military leadership, its fighting forces and its air defences – a striking dynastic turn for a system that has long presented itself as a revolutionary republic rather than a hereditary regime. Having watched Israel systematically eliminate senior figures around him while degrading the regime’s ability to fight and defend itself, the new leader may reasonably wonder whether his days could be numbered. Mojtaba Khamenei has long been regarded as one of

Never has North Korea felt more smug about its nuclear weapons

If there’s one thing that the ongoing Iran-US conflict is teaching North Korea, it is that nuclear weapons are an invaluable asset in the hermit kingdom’s toolbox. Nearly twenty years ago, Pyongyang conducted its first and far-from-successful nuclear test. Its capabilities have increased substantially since that moment and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, that of Libya’s Gaddafi in 2011, and now, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has shown Pyongyang that acquiring what the Kim regime has long-called its ‘treasured sword’ has been its most successful foreign policy decision to date. It is no surprise that only yesterday, Kim Jong-un oversaw cruise missile tests from a naval destroyer and pledged to

Why the Ayatollahs might be harder to remove than Trump thinks

According to the old Farsi proverb, if you want a peacock, you must suffer the hardships of travelling to India. In other words, be careful what you wish for. This is good Persian wisdom that Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu should remember before they declare job done and crown themselves the liberators of Iran. Most Western military action since World War Two has involved hubris followed by nemesis This might end up a fabulously judged operation, a clinical set of strikes that decapitated the regime, allowed the Iranian people to rise up, and ushered in a new era of peace and democracy. This would be a fabulous result, and if it

Iran isn’t only a threat in the Middle East

It must be a comforting thought to those who oppose the military action against the Iranian regime that it is, to coin a phrase, a quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing. It’s not our fight and not our war, they argue. The Iranians have plotted and planned the assassination of British citizens, on British soil, for many years But the arrests this morning of four people – one Iranian and three dual British-Iranian nationals – on suspicion of assisting a foreign intelligence service show how ludicrous such a view really is. (Six other men were also arrested on suspicion of assisting an offender.) Iran

China is next – Trump’s Iran strategy explained with Maurice Glasman

Iran: Why Trump's ultimate target in this war is China – with Maurice Glasman

50 min listen

As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, what is Trump’s game plan? The Spectator’s cover piece this week, by Geoffrey Cain, argues that Trump’s ultimate target in this war is China; every dictator gone, weakens the Chinese regime. As Freddy Gray explains further on the podcast, Trump’s worldview is shaped by the events he grew up with – including then President Nixon’s visit to China in the 1970s. As well as making sense of Trump’s plan, the Spectator team take us through the dramatic events of the past week, including how Starmer appears to have alienated Britain’s allies over Iran. Plus – Lord Glasman makes the case for Reza Pahlavi, the Crown

Why Iran marks the end of neoconservatism

45 min listen

Spectator World columnist – and Heritage Foundation fellow – Daniel McCarthy joins Freddy Gray to explain how Trump’s war with Iran could mark the end of an era, that of neoconservatism. For Daniel, there is no contradiction between Trump’s ‘America First’ policy and its overseas interventions: Trump is pursuing a version of hegemony that will reduce the need for future interventions. If all goes to plan, this could mark an ideological watershed that stretches back to the first Gulf War in the early 1990s – but it’s a big ‘if’. What if the conflict spirals out of control? To what extent was this driven by Trump, or by Netanyahu? And

Why Iran marks the end of neoconservatism

Iran: has Starmer alienated Britain's allies?

21 min listen

As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, the British government continues to face questions about its response. Was the UK too slow to act, and if so – why? Tim Shipman reveals in the Spectator today that Keir Starmer was initially minded to approve American use of British bases but was persuaded not to by other figures, including Ed Miliband. How much damage has this done with the Americans and also wider European allies? Defence Secretary John Healey has landed in Cyprus today on a damage-limitation mission – or in a show of strength, depending on your viewpoint. Has Starmer been weakened by these events? Plus – Home Secretary

Iran: has Starmer alienated Britain's allies?

Why Iran is not Iraq

At the moment, a lot of people – notably including the Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer – are comparing the current war with Iran with the Iraq invasion of 2003. Do they have a point? There are several common claims of comparison, some good, some bad. There is no use pretending that the decisions Starmer has made will not have vast and far-reaching consequences The principal claim is that what happened in Iraq means we should steer well clear of any further involvement anywhere. It reminds me of the final scene in that magnificent film, Chinatown. A private detective moves to intervene to stop a horror unfolding but one of

The Iran war is morphing into a regional conflict

The war in the Middle East widened further over the past 24 hours, with missile interceptions stretching from Turkey to Saudi Arabia, naval clashes in the Indian Ocean and mounting pressure inside Iran itself. Nato air defences shot down an Iranian missile heading toward Turkish airspace, Saudi forces intercepted cruise missiles near Riyadh, and reports emerged that Kurdish militants may be preparing to exploit the conflict along Iran’s western border. Taken together with continuing Israeli and American airstrikes across Iran and escalating fighting in Lebanon, the developments suggest the confrontation is steadily spreading. Tens of thousands of residents have fled Tehran since the escalation began Israeli and American aircraft continued

Khamenei’s death has exposed the ugly side of British campuses

Why are students in British universities mourning Ayatollah Khamenei? The Iranian dictator’s death brought jubilant crowds of Jews and Persians out onto the streets of London. Yet, on campus, there’s a more sombre mood. Islamist extremists at British universities are working to continue the Ayatollah’s legacy Members of University College London’s Ahlul Bayt Islamic Society are grieving the ‘martyrdom’ of the Ayatollah. Khamenei’s death is described as ‘an unimaginable loss for the entire Ummah’, or global Islamic community. Students in mourning are asked to recite Surah al Fatiha, the first chapter of the Quran, ‘for our beloved Sayed’. Alarmingly, the group’s ‘mental health’ wing not only sends members their condolences

Iran has shown how naive Keir Starmer truly is

Being one of America’s closest allies – which Britain remains – is like having a very rich friend. You are invited to meetings and parties to which you might not otherwise have access, and people listen to you because of your connections. Sometimes, though, your friend will expect a favour in return which you know might make you unpopular with others. It is the quid pro quo. That relationship of unbalanced dependency has come under the spotlight since the United States launched Operation Epic Fury, its latest campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran, at the weekend. America has an enormous military infrastructure in the Middle East with facilities in

The Middle East’s Muslims are cheering Khamenei’s death

The killing of ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes on Saturday was cheered by many Iranians who have suffered innumerable atrocities under his ruthless Islamist rule of the country. While the diaspora were vociferous in their jubilation over the death of Iran’s supreme leader, many in the country also braved violent crackdowns to rejoice in the streets. These Iranians chanted the slogan that has become a common anti-Khamenei refrain over the past four decades: ‘Death to the Islamic Republic’. The chant has echoed alongside others: ‘death to the dictator… death to Khamenei’ of the 1999 student marches; the 2009 election protests; the 2019 agitation against economic policies; the 2022 demonstrations over

Chaos in Iran spells trouble for the Taliban

The US-Israeli attack on Iran presents an opportunity to get rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan. If there is a collapse of central authority in Iran, tens of thousands of Afghan former soldiers living in exile there could use the power vacuum to mobilise, return home and fight against the Taliban. There are several resistance groups who have advanced plans to fight but need a reliable haven outside the country to launch attacks inside Afghanistan. Iran, which has a 600-mile border with the country, could be the launchpad they need. This represents a unique opportunity for Afghanistan, as for the first time the country faces conflict on both sides. While

An Iranian uprising remains unlikely

President Donald Trump was crystal clear at the start of the military action against Iran that it was all about regime change. The United States, in co-ordination with Israel, would do its bit by targeting Iran’s leadership and command structure – but it was up to ordinary Iranians to rise up and finish the job. “The hour of your freedom is at hand, “he declared as US and Israeli warplanes bombed Iran, targeting the country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his inner circle. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take…”. There is no figurehead or leader to galvanise the masses, nor is

International law should not prevent regime change in Iran

Liberal supporters of the US-Israeli killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are straining to parry the charge that Operation Epic Fury is illegal. They say that Washington and Jerusalem are returning fire in a continuing war initiated by Iran, which has funded proxy terror organisations to target Americans and Israelis. It’s a good try but once you kill a country’s head of state in a targeted bombing, it’s hard to claim regime change wasn’t the object of the exercise.  If international law says Khamenei should still be in place, maybe international law deserves to be detonated along with him Customary international law, as commonly understood, does not permit the violation of

Iran islamic republic

Could Iran descend into civil war?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a man whose life has been defined by the harshness of his rhetoric against the West (specifically, the US and Israel) and his ruthless rule, has died a martyr’s death under the rubble of his compound in Pasteur, Tehran.  It was always going to end this way. Khamenei came to prominence as a revolutionary first and then second as a wartime leader when he assumed the role of President of Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. What is needed is a clear plan that can unite Iranians behind a shared, inclusive vision of their country The Islamic Republic is facing its most serious crisis since January, when it

Even Khamenei’s death might not finish the Iranian regime

As of now, it is possible to draw a number of immediate conclusions from the war currently under way between the alliance of the United States and Israel, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Firstly, the range and nature of US and Israeli targeting indicates that a determined attempt to destroy the 47 year old regime in Iran is now finally under way. The most senior leadership, up to and including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, appear to have been targeted – and possibly killed – by Israel. Action of this kind make sense only as part of a comprehensive attempt at regime destruction. History provides no unambiguous examples of regimes removed by