Edward Howell

Edward Howell is a politics lecturer at Oxford. He was involved in launching the BBC World Service in North Korea.

Saturday

Edward Howell

Trump’s Russia oil deal leaves South Korea in a bind

From our UK edition

In today’s world, no geopolitical deal is without controversy. President Trump’s recent deal with Vladimir Putin to import an initial 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel is no exception. For its critics, the agreement is one more example of Trump’s claim that 'the tougher and meaner [world leaders] are', the better his relationships with them. At the same time, the disruption to crude oil supplies and resultant hike in global fuel prices have meant that for some, importing from Russia is the only option. The implications of this deal, however, go far beyond Washington and Europe. We must not forget Washington’s East Asian ally south of one of the world’s most heavily militarised borders, the Demilitarised Zone, namely South Korea.

Sunday

Edward Howell

There is no place for Chinese espionage in British universities

From our UK edition

As another academic year begins, the hallowed walls of universities are filled with anticipation, whether for the bright-eyed fresher or the veteran don. Yet we must remove our rose-tinted spectacles. If today’s universities remain complacent, they risk being captured by hostile forces. It is not just the malevolent marriage between EDI (Equality, Diversity, and Inclusion) agendas and woke ideology that degrades our elite institutions from within. There is, and has long been, a third person in this marriage: China. MI5’s recent espionage alert rightly caused alarm. When agencies of the Chinese Communist party (CCP) fund academic research in British universities and funnel research findings back to Beijing, it is no laughing matter. This, however, is hardly news.

Wednesday

Edward Howell

Xi has no interest in stabilising relations with Trump

When Xi Jinping arrives in Washington today for a much-anticipated summit with President Donald Trump, the Chinese leader will want to show the world that this is more than just an act of reciprocity for hosting the US president four months ago. At a time of ongoing global disputes ranging from trade to the Iran war to the ever-elusive North Korea problem, Beijing will want to give the impression of stabilised relations with the global hegemon. Beneath the surface, however, China shows few signs of altering its worldview. This not only remains fundamentally in opposition to what it calls the ‘anti-China’ West but crucially involves its support for Western adversaries, including North Korea. The last time Trump and Xi shared a tête-à-tête was in May.

Wednesday

Edward Howell

Kim Jong-un has everything to gain from a meeting with Trump

Will Trump and Kim Jong-un meet again? This is the million-dollar question after President Trump lauded his ‘very good relationship’ with Kim and ordered a scaling back of US-South Korean military exercises earlier this week. Hours later, Trump elusively mentioned that the North Korean despot had responded ‘positively’ to his overtures. Another rendezvous between the two leaders cannot be dismissed, especially with Kim Jong-un in a stronger position now than during the first Trump administration. But unlike during the Trump 1.0 years, which saw three meetings between Kim and the President, things are different now. Back then, neither leader had met the other before; kindling a bromance was a novelty. Now, however, it will be a case of déjà vu.

Sunday

Edward Howell

How Russia and China are helping North Korea dodge sanctions

If you were Kim Jong-un, you’d be pretty happy right now. North Korea’s third supreme leader is not only the hermit kingdom’s most successful leader – he is also the richest. With the sanctions-stricken country having amassed over $20 billion (£15 billion) in foreign currency earnings as of last year, Kim is at his most emboldened since he took power in December 2011. As more North Korean artillery, missiles, and manpower head in Moscow’s direction to aid its war against Ukraine, Kim knows that for now, North Korea can count on its Cold War patrons of Russia and China for brotherly support. Pyongyang’s neighbours offer a crucial helpline in circumventing international sanctions and ensuring the Kim regime continues to reap rewards.

Saturday

Edward Howell

Why Putin is using North Korean soldiers as Ukraine cannon fodder

From our UK edition

When an estimated 10,000 North Korean troops were deployed to Russia’s Kursk region in October 2024, it was a reality few observers had predicted. A handful of months later, in January and February the following year, this number would be topped up by as many as a further 4,000 men, as the hermit kingdom sought to signal it was going all out in assisting the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine. With North Korea and Russia now in a solidified alliance bound by a mutual security pact, we should not be surprised at the recent claim by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia plans to accept an additional 30,000 North Korean troops later this year.

Tuesday

Edward Howell

Ed Miliband can’t ignore the threat from China forever

From our UK edition

Does Andy Burnham have a plan? The new Prime Minister may have announced his intention to unveil a ten-year programme for the country, but beyond domestic politics, both he and his inexperienced Foreign Secretary, Ed Miliband, have said little when it comes to the elephant in the room: foreign policy. This silence can only last for so long. The question of what Britain ought to do about the increasingly acute threat from Beijing cannot be pushed to one side forever. The Starmer government’s policy on China was not just disastrous; it was non-existent. The China audit, due to happen after Sir Keir took office in July 2024, was swept under the carpet, never to be seen or heard of again. Instead, Starmer’s approach was tantamount to appeasement.

Wednesday

Edward Howell

Can China keep North Korea in check?

When Xi Jinping visited North Korea in June 2019 for his first state visit, he would not have expected nearly seven years later that the hermit kingdom would be in an alliance with Russia. As Xi concluded his second visit to the country yesterday, the Chinese president’s pledges to 'strengthen strategic coordination' and 'uphold regional peace and development' with his North Korean counterpart emphasised how Beijing wants to ensure that its northeastern neighbour does not cross any red lines. With Beijing having been Pyongyang’s largest economic partner for nearly two decades, Xi’s visit serves as a clear reminder to North Korea that China wants to maintain close ties and, crucially, ensure stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Sunday

Edward Howell

The Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang axis is here to stay

On Donald Trump's sojourn to China – the first visit by a US president in almost a decade – North Korea was hardly at the top of the agenda. Trump and Xi Jinping had bigger fish to fry, be that China’s desire to secure rhetorical US concessions on Taiwan, Trump’s wishes for greater Chinese investment in US manufacturing or whether Beijing can compel Iran to ease the effects of the Iran War. But US-China relations are not just a two-player game. Only last weekend, history was made as North Korean soldiers participated in Moscow’s Victory Day parade for the first time. A day beforehand, Kim Jong-un had pledged to Vladimir Putin that North Korea would ‘give top priority’ to its relations with Russia.

Sunday

Edward Howell

Never has North Korea felt more smug about its nuclear weapons

From our UK edition

If there’s one thing that the ongoing Iran-US conflict is teaching North Korea, it is that nuclear weapons are an invaluable asset in the hermit kingdom’s toolbox. Nearly twenty years ago, Pyongyang conducted its first and far-from-successful nuclear test. Its capabilities have increased substantially since that moment and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, that of Libya’s Gaddafi in 2011, and now, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has shown Pyongyang that acquiring what the Kim regime has long-called its ‘treasured sword’ has been its most successful foreign policy decision to date.

Thursday

Edward Howell

North Korea’s nuclear ambitions know no bounds

North Korea’s ninth party congress, held this week, was little more than a rubber-stamping exercise. That much was clear when the Chinese premier Xi Jinping congratulated Kim Jong-un on his re-election as the general secretary of the Workers’ party of Korea. But we would be wrong to dismiss this gathering as merely symbolic. The last time North Korea held such a congress, in January 2021, Kim outlined a shopping list of desired weapons and missiles. Since then, North Korea has tested or obtained each item. All this week's congress did was cement North Korea’s self-perceived status as a nuclear-armed state.

Thursday

Edward Howell

What Yoon’s prison sentence means for South Korea

From our UK edition

South Korean presidents have gained infamy for meeting untimely fates, whether death, imprisonment or suicide. And now, former president Yoon Suk-yeol is the latest addition to this list. Earlier today, the man whose presidency will go down in history for his abortive declaration of martial law on 3 December 2024 was sentenced to life in prison on account of masterminding an insurrection. Supporters and detractors of South Korea’s thirteenth president gathered outside Seoul’s central district court to hear the fate of the leader they either loved or loathed – a fate which was also broadcast on live television to the Korean nation. This sight – and today’s decision – hammers home the fact that South Korean politics won't become any less polarised anytime soon.

Thursday

Edward Howell

Could this teenage girl be the next leader of North Korea?

From our UK edition

Every authoritarian regime, particularly a dynastic one, at some point has to face the question of succession. North Korea is no exception. And it appears that the Kim regime, now in its third generation under Kim Jong Un, is planning for the future. This week, South Korea’s spy agency confirmed that Kim Jong Un’s teenage daughter, Kim Ju Ae, has been anointed as his successor. It is worth being sceptical about this. Whilst Kim Ju Ae’s rise is not unlikely, the only person who can confirm the truth is the Supreme Leader himself. The 13-to-14-year-old Kim Ju Ae has certainly been very visible over the past year, even accompanying her daddy to a missile launch.

Friday

Edward Howell

The Chagos deal has cemented Britain’s global decline

From our UK edition

For a moment, it looked as if this tragic inevitability would not happen. But yesterday evening, Donald Trump gave the green light for Sir Keir Starmer’s disastrous Chagos Islands deal following ‘productive discussions’ between the two leaders. As a result, the UK has moved one step closer to realising its greatest strategic blunder in history. The ceding of a vital British sovereign strategic asset to Mauritius, which so many had tirelessly campaigned to avoid, looks set to become a reality. For the US president, his decision to back the deal was a volte face from a fortnight ago when he rightly derided the deal as an ‘act of GREAT STUPIDITY’. Trump’s approval reportedly came after numerous pleas from Starmer and his National Security Advisor, Jonathan Powell.

Saturday

Edward Howell

The Chagos deal risks turning Britain into a vassal of China

From our UK edition

If one is in any doubt as to Great Britain’s decline and fall, look no further than 20 January, when we alienated ourselves from our once-held global status and from our allies and partners. Donald Trump took to social media that morning to declare that Britain's deal to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius was an ‘act of great stupidity’. The US president followed this up by telling Keir Starmer to ‘fix your country’. Never had truer words been spoken. Several hours later, the British government gave the green light for the construction of a new Chinese super-embassy in London. That decision demonstrated not a care in the world for the deleterious security risks this monstrosity would pose.

Friday

Edward Howell

Putting Yoon Suk Yeol on trial won’t unify South Korea

From our UK edition

Think of the death penalty and North Korea’s executions of individuals convicted of so-called 'anti-state crimes' may spring to mind. The resilient democracy of South Korea, however, probably would not. Nevertheless, this week has seen South Korean prosecutors call for the country's former president, Yoon Suk Yeol, to be handed the most extreme of all punishments for his notorious declaration of martial law on 3 December 2024. At the first of his four trials this morning, the former president was handed a five-year prison sentence for having ‘plunged the country into political crisis’.

Sunday

Edward Howell

Kim and Putin’s growing bromance should make us nervous

From our UK edition

As Kim Jong-un himself announced at a New Year’s Eve event in Pyongyang, 2025 was an 'unforgettable year' for North Korea. During the final weekend of the year, the Supreme Leader supervised a 'nuclear-capable' long-range strategic cruise missile test, which he termed an 'exercise of war deterrence' against the 'security threats' facing Pyongyang. The test followed a week of oily letters between Kim and his new best friend, none other than Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader lauded the 'heroic dispatch' of North Korean troops to assist Russia’s war against Ukraine as an example of the 'militant fraternity' between Pyongyang and Moscow.

Monday

Edward Howell

What are Ukrainian children doing in North Korea?

The regime of North Korea has continued to exploit the war in Ukraine to spread its propaganda. This week we learned that Ukrainian children, abducted by Russia, are being sent to an infamous North Korean summer camp. The children have reportedly been taught to "destroy Japanese imperialists" and heard from North Korean soldiers who destroyed the USS Pueblo, a spy ship captured and sank by North Korea in 1968.  This Ukrainian children have been at the Songdowon International Children’s Camp, located near the port city of Wonsan on the country’s east coast.

Sunday

Edward Howell

What are Ukrainian children doing in North Korea?

From our UK edition

The regime of North Korea has continued to exploit the war in Ukraine to spread its propaganda. This week we learnt that Ukrainian children, abducted by Russia, are being sent to an infamous North Korean summer camp. The children have reportedly been taught to ‘destroy Japanese imperialists’ and heard from North Korean soldiers who destroyed the USS Pueblo, a spy ship captured and sank by North Korea in 1968.  This Ukrainian children have been at the Songdowon International Children’s Camp, located near the port city of Wonsan on the country’s east coast.

Thursday

Edward Howell

Why Taiwan matters to Japan

From our UK edition

It was only a matter of time before Japan’s Iron Lady would be targeted by China. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi mentioned how Tokyo might resort to force were Beijing to take military action over Taiwan: 'If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation,' she said. In response, China’s consul-general in Osaka, Xue Jian, threatened, on Monday, to ‘cut off’ the Japanese prime minister’s ‘filthy neck…without a moment’s hesitation’. Xue’s vitriolic online reaction, which he subsequently deleted from his X account, underscores how China’s wolf-warrior diplomacy has anything but abated.