Stephen Pollard

It looks like it’s going to be a straight fight between Nigel Farage and Count Binface to be the next MP for Clacton. That may be the most bizarre sentence I have ever written. Although this one may be even more so: it’s possible that some fringe candidates will also run, but to all intents and purposes it’s a two-way fight. (Imagine just 24 hours ago living in a world in which Count Binface is seen as a mainstream voting choice.) This is all a giant hissy fit by a man who is rattled by the scrutiny his financial affairs are now receiving According to Farage, the by-election will be “a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire establishment, to frankly tell them where to go".

There’s been much comment on the appointment of James Purnell as Andy Burnham’s chief of staff. Along with the widely touted return of David Miliband, it’s a sign of how the near-certain next Prime Minister is going back to the future, recruiting fellow cabinet ministers from the last time Burnham was in government, under Gordon Brown. There are plenty within the Labour party who have grave doubts about his suitability for the job of PM But Purnell’s appointment has another resonance, one which should be less to Burham’s liking. In the context of Burnham’s ascent to the premiership, Purnell’s most relevant contribution to British politics was not his time as Work of Pensions Secretary but, rather, his resignation.

As a good Labour man, I’m sure Andy Burnham will have read his Marx (even if he is by no stretch a Marxist). And he’ll likely be aware of Marx’s maxim, "History repeats itself, first as a tragedy, second as a farce". It’s far from always true, of course. But it’s true often enough that when we fail to learn from history we really should know better. Johnson and Burnham are very different and have different political outlooks. But the parallels are real Which brings us to Boris Johnson. After eight years as a mayor, he returned to the Commons in a by-election. His party then turned to him to replace the stolid, wooden prime minister who was sending its MPs into paroxysms of despair.

If you want to understand why the traditional mainstream parties struggle to gain support, and why Reform is leading the polls, one name will suffice: Shabir Ahmed. Ahmed will reportedly be released from prison this week, having served 14 years of a 19-year sentence for multiple counts of rape and sexual offences against girls. Ahmed is a Pakistani national (he was formerly a dual British-Pakistani citizen but his British citizenship was removed after his conviction). There will, of course, be anger that the leader of a Rochdale rape gang – who made his victims call him ‘Daddy’ – has been released five years early. But that anger is as nothing in the context of what will happen to Ahmed after his release, which is said to be happening tomorrow: nothing.

When it became obvious that Andy Burnham would be the next prime minister if he won in Makerfield, it seemed obligatory for any piece about him to include the recycled joke about a Blairite, a Brownite, a Milibandite and a Starmerite walking into a bar. The punchline: “The barman asks: ‘What are you having, Andy?’”. Burnham's speech on Monday was the first time he has given any specific steer. But even that was full of generalities The joke was certainly over-used but it served a purpose. There has been very little that anyone knows for certain about what Burnham actually stands for.

The last Prime Minister to resign over national security was Neville Chamberlain in 1940. Eighty six years later, Sir Keir Starmer’s defence secretary and armed forces minister have resigned because they believe the current PM and Chancellor of the Exchequer are endangering national security through their refusal to fund the armed services properly. The UK is ranked 31st out of 32 on a database comparing how Nato members are meeting their rearmament promises. The only country below us is Iceland, which has no armed forces. Chamberlain is rightly reviled over appeasement. But when the history comes to be written, Starmer’s record may be viewed as even worse There could be no worse an accusation by a (now former) Defence Secretary. This should be climactic for Starmer.

I’m usually resistant to the sentiment behind one of the oldest political jokes: How can you tell when a politician is lying? His lips move. In my experience – I’ve been in and around Westminster for nearly four decades – most politicians might have large egos but they are genuinely trying to do their best for their country. The idea that all politicians lie with impunity is corrosive and wrong. But it’s not always easy to make that case. And the wilful, brazen smearing of Kemi Badenoch by Reform over her reaction to the murder of Henry Nowak is one such example of that difficulty.

I am aware that there is limited interest in my domestic arrangements, but there is a reason why I’m telling you that for much of my adult life I lived in central London. First in Bayswater, then in Fitzrovia. I loved the bustle, the grime, the noise and all the things which are part of – indeed the point of – living in a city centre. The Soho Society doesn’t like the idea of the area buzzing after bedtime – or even in daytime And then I stopped loving them. As I got older, I decided that I no longer wanted my sleep to be interrupted by fights in the street outside my bedroom window (Cleveland Street, since you asked) and that I actually liked the idea of having some space. So I moved to suburbia, a path taken by many before and after me.

There’s an old joke about Andy Burnham that has been recycled since he started making eyes at No. 10. A Blairite, a Brownite, a Milibandite, a Starmerite, an insider and an outsider walk into a bar. The barman asks: ‘What are you having, Andy?’ It might not be that funny but it’s a direct hit as a piece of political analysis, because there have been few more transparent examples of political shape-shifters than the current mayor of Greater Manchester.

Sir Keir Starmer remains dug in as Prime Minister, having told the cabinet: ‘Bring it on if you think you’re hard enough’. Most observers have concluded that someone will indeed bring it on, and Sir Keir’s days are numbered. But there is an almighty irony in Sir Keir’s desperate pleas to stay in the job. He might be useless. He might be clueless. He might be inept. But he is also right in suggesting, as per Louis XV, après moi le deluge. Dire as Starmer is, he is the dam holding off economic meltdown Liz Truss has, rightly, become a byword for chaos and for economic disaster. Every time Kemi Badenoch opens her mouth, Sir Keir references Truss as if that alone is enough to destroy any credibility the Conservative leader might claim to have.

It’s now been two days since the Golders Green terror attack, so if the response to previous such incidents is anything to go by, it’s time for the political class to forget about it and move on to something else. In recent weeks we’ve had – as well as the low level ‘ambient anti-Semitism’ of shouts of ‘dirty Jew’ and such like – arson attacks on synagogues, ambulances firebombed, a video of a Jewish building inspector being harangued and threatened with assault and, last October, two deaths at Heaton Park synagogue over Yom Kippur. The response is always the same: cliches about solidarity and standing together, and sometimes – as after the Golders Green attack and before that the Yom Kippur deaths – the promise of more money for security.

It’s always the newspeak that lacerates. The Royal Academy of Music (RAM) has, admirably, set up a new foundation year for 'talented young musicians who have previously faced significant obstacles', specifically the decline in music education in so many secondary schools – and indeed, the total absence in some. The foundation course will start in July with five students. They will also get accommodation in University of London halls of residence, financial assistance to buy an instrument and a bursary to cover living costs. It’s an excellent plan, in theory, to try to ensure that one of our best conservatoires doesn’t miss out on untapped young talent and, perhaps even more so, vice versa.  But here’s the newspeak.