Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Tuesday

Philip Patrick

The great soccer World Cup swindle

Tickets for this summer’s soccer World Cup are the most expensive in the tournament’s history. Or the history of any sporting event for that matter, with the possible exception of one-off extravaganzas like the Mayweather-Pacquiao showdown in 2015. The face value of tickets at this American tournament are a staggering five times higher that of the previous World Cup in Qatar. The most expensive seats for the final match have reached wallet-busting levels, affordable only to plutocrats and corporate boondogglers. And that’s just face value. What about the quaintly named secondary market? I occasionally peruse Fifa’s resale site, where the custodians of the game double dip from the buyer and seller to act as an official tout.

The soccer World Cup trophy sits in front of President Donald Trump
Doug Stokes

The Hormuz blockade won’t hurt China

As I argued last month, the Iran war was really about America's great power competition with China. Not by design, perhaps, but these kinds of conflicts are not easily confined by those who start them. Any disruption to the world’s principal energy chokepoint becomes, whether Washington planned for it or not, a test of the Sino-American balance of power. China is the country around which the whole episode turns, and the one best positioned to come through it Trump’s announcement on Sunday of a naval blockade targeting all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, after peace talks collapsed in Islamabad, sharpens that test considerably.

Laura Powell

Swalwell’s fall was electoral math not morality

Eric Swalwell’s fall from viable gubernatorial contender to political casualty was swift and surgical. He was among the frontrunners to replace Governor Gavin Newsom until allegations of sexual misconduct from years ago were published in the San Francisco Chronicle. The response from major Democratic operatives was immediate, with labor unions and party figures quickly withdrawing endorsements. Swalwell formally announced the suspension of his campaign two days later, followed by his resignation from Congress the following day. Some of the allegations are serious. In addition to claims of inappropriate and predatory sexual relationships with staffers, Swalwell has been accused of sexual assault. In a video statement, he denied any criminal wrongdoing.

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James Johnson

Will Republicans blow the California governor’s race?

Eric Swalwell has dropped out of the race for California governor after a series of sexual misconduct allegations. Republicans may be celebrating the demise of the prominent Democrat, but they should hold off on the champagne for now. Swalwell’s exit only increases the chance of two Democrats moving through to the run-off, depriving the GOP of a place on the ticket.However some Republicans still believe that the two GOP candidates in the race – Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco – can make it through California's jungle primary and face each other in November. While it sounds exciting and makes a good social media meme, such wishful thinking could cause Republicans to blow a historic opportunity to defeat a deeply unpopular and chaotic Democratic party in California.

republicans Steve Hilton

Monday

Francis Pike

The truth about Pakistan’s role in the US-Iran conflict

Pakistan was always an unlikely mediator for peace negotiations between the United States, Iran and sotto voce, China. It would not be an exaggeration to describe Pakistan as a failed state. Having outperformed India economically in the aftermath of partition, Pakistan went into steep decline after the arrival on the political scene of a corrupt chancer, socialist and demagogue, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. Today, bankrupt Pakistan is kept afloat by loans from the IMF, China, and the Gulf States. Trump can be in no doubt that, with regards to political power in Pakistan, it is Munir who wears the pants Bhutto’s political dynasty continued under the aegis of his daughter Benazir and later his grandson.

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lebanon
Jonathan Spyer

Israel won’t stop in Lebanon until Hezbollah is crushed

Direct US-brokered talks between Israeli and Lebanese representatives are set to take place in Washington this week. The Israeli delegation will be headed by Yehiel Leiter, Jerusalem’s ambassador to the US. Lebanon will be represented by Nada Hamadeh, the Lebanese ambassador to Washington. The State Department will host the negotiations. In his statement on Thursday announcing the talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed their purpose as "disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful ‌relations between ⁠Israel and ⁠Lebanon." Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, for his part, expressed his hope that Beirut should become a "demilitarized city.

Travis Aaroe

Orbán’s defeat is a warning to MAGA

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán was the first populist of the 21st century. The problems his country faced, he said, were immigration – both legal and illegal – and the entrenched class of bureaucrats, judges and NGOs. By the end of 2015, he had built a fence on the southern border, and an attempt to replace the country’s establishment with new people was underway. His project had, for the most part, succeeded on its own terms. And so, what to do then? Once the initial crisis had subsided, Orbán and his theorists' thoughts turned, perhaps inevitably, to the moral character of society and the quest for meaning in the modern world. What they came up with was disappointing, and as certain figures on the American right – J.D.

Ian Thomson

The bleak humor of Samuel Beckett

Samuel Beckett, with his quizzically peering gaze and handsome, hawk-like appearance, has long been the academic’s pin-up. Endless PhD dissertations exalt the Irish writer, who was born 120 years ago in Dublin on April 13, 1906, as an unsmiling existential hermit figure when he was really nothing of the sort. Over the 60 years of his writing career, Beckett created a memorable gallery of tramps, waifs and other "crotchety moribunds" who find a lugubrious comedy in human failings. "Nothing is funnier than unhappiness," declares a character in Endgame, while Estragon in Waiting for Godot pines for death in a dry climate where they "crucify quick." Beckett’s terminal vision was bleakly humorous – and comedy often intruded on his life.

Stephen Daisley

The best response to Trump is to pray for him

Imagine that Martin Luther had scrawled his 95 Theses on the back of a Denny’s menu and nailed it to the doors of the nearest church and you get the picture of Donald Trump’s polemic against Pope Leo XIV. The faithful should be careful not to overreact to the President’s provocation, which is objectively hilarious The President’s TruthSocial rant against the Holy Father is highly offensive, of course. Show some respect for the Vicar of Christ. That’s not to mention the follow-up post in which he shared an AI-generated image of himself mocked up as Jesus Christ healing the sick. Given the condition of his second term in office, Trump might focus on trying to raise the dead. Although a man of peace, the Pope has several options for retaliation.

Sunday

Jawad Iqbal

What will happen to Iran now?

What now after the collapse in peace talks between America and Iran in Pakistan? The gap between the two sides on the two critical issues – Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz – proved too big in the end. Is it back to war? What does the failure to reach a deal mean for the fragile, two-week ceasefire the two sides agreed? Whose fault is it that the discussions, which lasted for a marathon 21 hours, broke down? So far, there is little in the way of concrete facts about what exactly happened in Islamabad but the blame game is already under way. First out of the blocks was J.D. Vance, who led the American side. He said the US had given the Iranian regime its "final and best offer" but to no avail.

Irwin Stelzer

Of course these peace talks would fail

The US and Iran have failed to reach an agreement after 21 hours of peace talks in Pakistan. I can’t say I’m surprised. After all, we didn’t have to wait for the negotiations to finish to make an informed guess of the outcome. America and Iran agreed a ceasefire conditional on the Islamic Republic’s complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz. It has so far refused to honor that condition. Earlier this week, President Trump responded with fulminations: Iran "better stop now" if it’s charging tankers to pass through. But, in practice, all he has done is apply more pressure on NATO allies and send Vice President J.D. Vance to head the delegation in Islamabad.

Saturday

Cockburn

Swalwell sexual assault accusations detonate California governor’s race

Is it Swal-over for Swalwell? Congressman Eric Swalwell – the longtime anti-Trump crusader, MS Now and CNN mainstay, and a leading candidate in the California gubernatorial race – has now been accused by an anonymous ex-staffer of sexual assault. The allegations, published by the San Francisco Chronicle, turn mainly on inebriation and the so-called power imbalance between the two: Driving him to another event weeks later, she said Swalwell pulled out his penis in the car and asked her to perform oral sex on him. She said she did so in a parking lot. In September 2019, the woman said, Swalwell invited her out for drinks and she became so severely intoxicated that she does not remember the rest of the night.

Eric Swalwell
Jawad Iqbal

What can we expect from the Iran negotiations?

The eyes of the world are on Pakistan’s capital Islamabad as it plays host to this weekend’s make or break negotiations between the United States and Iran. The Pakistanis, whose mediation efforts pushed the two warring countries to agree a fragile two-week ceasefire, are taking no chances. Security has been stepped up, with thousands of police officers and security forces patrolling the streets of the capital. Hope and trepidation are the order of the day when it comes to ending a Middle East war that has already cost thousands of lives and plunged the world into economic crisis. Any peace agreement will require a degree of conciliation and compromise – alien concepts to the hardliners of Tehran The American delegation is being led by J.D. Vance.

Friday

Freddy Gray

If only TACO were true

A useful rule, when trying to understand current affairs, is AAL: Acronyms Always Lie.A case in point would be the acronym of the year so far: TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). It means that Donald Trump is always bluffing and, when push finally comes to shove, he folds.TACO has caught on since Liberation Day and the onset of Trump 2.0’s tariff agenda, and is now deployed again and again to describe the President’s latest ceasefire with Iran. Over free trade, Greenland, and the Middle East, he’s shown himself to be a playground bully who loves to intimidate adversaries only to cave whenever the going gets tough.

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Melissa Kite

What the hell is going on with Melania Trump?

Melania Trump’s bombshell statement yesterday on the Jeffrey Epstein affair needed subtitles. As she spoke it was all so odd. There had to be a subtext. Her choice of words and tone was so loaded it felt like there was another shadow statement underneath, and her shock appearance was just act one of this drama, prefiguring a much bigger statement to come. It was so astonishing for her to deny allegations that most of us had never heard about. We were left wondering what she was really trying to say. Her statement raised questions that hadn’t ever been asked before, and now we’re all wondering what the answers are When she said that the rumors about her "need to stop," did she mean the rumors about Trump and Epstein, or did she mean something else?

Melania Epstein
Brendan O’Neill

The lies about Israel’s attack on Hezbollah

Imagine there was a virulently Francophobic militia on the doorstep of the French Republic. Imagine it had fired nearly a hundred thousand missiles into France these past three years. Imagine if the France-loathing maniacs had caused the deaths of hundreds of French people and forced almost half a million to flee their towns in terror. France would respond, right? It would take action, no? Why, then, does President Macron not extend the same right to fight to his supposed ally of Israel? Hezbollah has inflicted every one of those bloody horrors on Israel since October 7, 2023. I’ve scaled up the numbers to account for France’s population of 70 million, compared to Israel’s ten million.

Damian Thompson

No, the US didn’t threaten to bomb the Vatican

The first American pope does not like the President of the United States. One of the few things we knew about the Chicago-born Robert Prevost when he was elected last May was that – despite having an older brother who supported MAGA – he detested the immigration policies of the Trump administration. His private X account, now deleted, made that clear. Pope Leo has rejected the President’s invitation to visit the United States to celebrate his own country’s 250th anniversary; instead, he will visit Lampedusa, the Mediterranean island collapsing under the strain of thousands of North African migrants who have risked their lives to get there. When President Trump issued his blood-curdling threat to destroy Iranian civilization, the Pope immediately condemned him.

Thursday

Margaret Mitchell

The Pentagon’s holy war with Rome

America is having its Golden Age, Iran is about to get blasted into the Stone Age... and Elbridge Colby wants to go back to the Late Middle Ages? According to a Free Press report by Mattia Ferraresi, the Under Secretary of War for Policy summoned Cardinal Christophe Pierre, the Vatican’s then-ambassador to the US, to a meeting in which the Avignon Papacy was invoked. (For those of you who didn’t go to Catholic school: in the 1300s the king of France had Pope Boniface VIII captured and beaten after the pope excommunicated him; a few years later the papacy moved to Avignon amid continued threats from the French crown and instability in Rome.

pope leo catholic rome pentagon
NATO
Doug Stokes

What Trump gets wrong about NATO

The idea that the United States has been swindled by its NATO allies is not new. Robert Gates, in his valedictory address as secretary of defense in June 2011, warned bluntly that future American leaders might not consider the return on defense investment in Europe worthwhile. He spoke of a "two-tiered alliance… Between those willing and able to pay the price and bear the burdens of alliance commitments, and those who enjoy the benefits of NATO membership… but don’t want to share the risks and the costs." Gates was no populist. He was a career intelligence officer and establishment Republican, and his warning carried real weight precisely because it came from inside the institutional consensus rather than against it.

Travis Aaroe

Hungary has become a tired gerontocracy

Hungary in 2026 is what most developed countries were probably on their way to becoming in the 1980s and early Nineties, had mass migration not intervened: a sleazy gerontocracy with occasional bouts of moral-majority politics and ethnic nationalism. With socialism dead, the opposition is made up of liberal parties led by equally sleazy modernizers. Crime has ceased to be an issue, partly because the population is aging. The people, like pandas, do not breed. There is boredom and ennui. There is nothing analogous to, say, the killing of Iryna Zarutska. Hungary has had a dreadful century and is now a tired sort of place Such has been the work of Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s Prime Minister since 2010, who is to face the voters again on April 12.

Wednesday

Matthew Lynn

We’re stuck at the worst possible oil price

A ceasefire has been agreed with Iran. The Straits of Hormuz will reopen. And the oil market will get back to normal very quickly. By Wednesday morning, it looked as if the energy crisis was over. Finance ministers will be breathing a sigh of relief as the crisis abates. But hold on. In reality, the truce is fragile, and huge amounts of supply have been taken out of the market. So long as that remains true, the price of oil, and with it the global economy, will remain stuck. The average price of $90 to $100 a barrel is not what anyone really thinks a barrel of oil is worth The price of oil has been on a wild ride ever since the United States and Israel started the attack on Iran a month ago.

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Jonathan Spyer

The winners and losers of the Iran ceasefire deal

The abrupt announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the war between the US, Israel and Iran resolves none of the issues which caused the conflict. Beyond an agreement to cease attacks, the arrangements that will hold during the two-week period appear themselves unclear. Each side in the last hours seemed to commit to different versions of the ceasefire in key areas. Iran remains an aggressive and dangerous power, with the ambition of expelling the US from the region, dominating the Gulf states and destroying Israel From Israel’s point of view, the bottom line is clear. The Iranian regime has been significantly weakened in its capacities in a number of key areas. At the same time, the regime has not been destroyed or even severely damaged in its continued ability to rule Iran.

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Paul Wood

Trump’s fantasy of victory

Among the many gifts the Watergate scandal gave us was Nixon’s White House press secretary declaring: "This is the operative statement. The others are inoperative." That was after months of sticking to increasingly threadbare denials. In Donald Trump’s White House, operative statements become inoperative from one day to the next. That’s especially true of Iran. In 24 hours, from Tuesday to Wednesday this week, Trump went from "a whole civilization will die tonight" to "this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!" TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out, as the meme has it.  The two-week ceasefire agreed this week with Iran is a lesson that you can win every battle but lose the war. (This is the lesson the United States learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, only to forget it again.

Daniel DePetris

Why Trump stepped back from the brink

At 5 p.m. ET speculation was rife that a deal between the United States and Iran was in the works. Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif pleaded for President Trump to extend his 8 p.m. Tuesday deadline – before he destroyed every bridge and power plant in Iran – by another two weeks in order to give diplomacy more time to work. Yet the New York Times reported that Iranian officials cut off direct contact with their American counterparts. And the White House wasn’t offering definitive answers about whether Trump was leaning toward escalation or a ceasefire.

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Jacob Heilbrunn

What will the Iran ceasefire cost Trump?

Might Donald Trump travel to Tehran this spring to open an American embassy and declare that he’s fallen in love with the new Iranian leadership? His volte-face on Tuesday night – announcing a two-week ceasefire with Iran – suggests that Trump is embarking upon a new course in the Middle East. After threatening to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, Trump announced that it’s time to call the whole thing off: “We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.”  What that negotiation will look like is an open question.

Tuesday

Jacob Heilbrunn

Why Trump is tempting 25th Amendment talk

During his remarks in Budapest, Vice President J.D. Vance, who is trying prop up Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as he runs for reelection, appeared to think the unthinkable. Vance, who has been a hero for MAGA anti-interventionists, went all-in on attacking Iran. He indicated that America might resort to “tools” in its arsenal that “we so far haven’t decided to use.” Now the White House is denying that it plans to deploy nuclear weapons against Iran, after frenzied social media speculation that it might. Negotiations with Tehran are ongoing – and Trump told Fox's Bret Baier that "if negotiations move forward today, and there is something concrete" that tonight's 8 p.m. deadline "could change.

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Charlie Gammell

Why Iran thinks it’s winning

President Trump has what he so dearly craves; the attention of the global media and the world hanging on his every word. As time ticks down to Donald’s deadline, after which he is threatening to commit war crimes on an unprecedented scale against the Iranian people, the gap for negotiations narrows and the likelihood of a US ground invasion into Iran widens. We should be honest about the talks’ chances of success: very low. At present it is likely that negotiators are seeking only to find common ground, however thin, from which a pause in fighting can be agreed upon. We are talking here about the foothills of a framework of an agreement. That’s a million miles from a deal that will satisfy the White House’s demands. And for all that oil.

Oleksandr Sukhoi

The new battle over American airspace

Last month, a mysterious drone swarm led to a lockdown at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana. Nothing was damaged and none of the 40 B-52 bombers or their cruise missiles were hit. At least not this time. But modern war no longer starts with an open attack. Instead we see hybrid actions: cyberattacks, information and psychological operations, GPS disruptions, damage to undersea communication cables and, increasingly, drone incursions into military sites and critical infrastructure. There is rarely a formal declaration. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the largest war in Europe since the Second World War, was labelled a “special military operation.

Monday

Charles Lipson

Trump’s threat to destroy Iran is detailed and credible

Monday’s White House press conference came in two distinct parts. The first was an extraordinary tale of heroism in the rescue of two downed pilots. America’s military and intelligence leaders provided details that were new to the public. The danger of a daytime rescue mission in the face of enemy fire. The harrowing climb by one officer to a crevice in the mountains. The technical sophistication needed to find him. And the misdirection executed to confound Iranian forces in the area, determined to capture the American serviceman before help arrived.  It was impossible to listen to that tale of bravery and professional excellence without an overwhelming sense of patriotic emotion, suffused with gratitude for the men and women who have pledged their lives to keep America safe.

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Natasha Feroze

What can Artemis II tell us about the wonders of the Moon?

Artemis II departed on the most ambitious mission yet, something which has not been tried for 50 years. Four astronauts were launched into the air on a ten-day expedition with the aim of traveling 5,000 miles past the far side of the Moon. Natasha Feroze is joined by David Whitehouse, astroscientist and writer to discuss the difficulty involved in the mission, how little we think about the significance of the Moon and whether the US will beat China in its quest to have footsteps back on the Moon.

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Daniel Hummel

Is Pete Hegseth waging a Christian Zionist war?

In his war briefings, Pete Hegseth pushes religion almost as much as US military might. This has raised questions about whether the War Secretary is a Christian Zionist – and if he views current events in the Middle East as prophetic of the end times. His Pentagon updates often include prayers, Bible readings and religiously-inflected statements about pursuing “overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.” When asked during his 2025 Senate confirmation hearing if he was a "Christian Zionist," Hegseth affirmed, "I am a Christian, and I robustly support the state of Israel.

Sunday

Jacob Heilbrunn

Will Trump really obliterate Iran on Tuesday?

Was Donald Trump’s profane and threatening tweet, which included an F-bomb and an allusion to Iran’s leaders as "crazy bastards," on Easter Sunday itself a bunch of BS? Trump is riding high after the daring rescue of an American airman from Iran, but its leadership doesn’t appear to be overly impressed by his tweet threatening a major attack on Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. On Saturday, Iran’s military leadership indicated that it had no intention of complying with Trump’s demands, dismissing his vow to destroy its infrastructure as a "helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid action.

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Michael Coren

What we really know about the first Easter

A friend who spent much of his life as an archaeologist in Israel once told me that there were three levels of authenticity when it came to Christian pilgrimage sites in the holy land. There were those that were almost certainly inaccurate but soaked in prayer. Those that may or may not be the real thing, of which there are many. Finally, those that according to most of the experts were the real thing. "No serious doubt," he said with a smile, "it happened here." It’s not altogether different when it comes to Christian history or the places and events that shaped the early church, including Easter. So, what do we know?