Politics Archives

Tuesday

27 November 2018

Could Jeremy Corbyn be about to back a second referendum?

We've all been focussing on the crisis that would ensue if – as expected – the PM loses the meaningful vote on her Brexit deal ‪on 11 December‬. But just for a moment think about the implications if she wins, because they too would be momentous. To state the obvious, we'd be out of the EU on terms that are semi-blind – we wouldn't know our long-term destination. But we would be out. And she, the PM, would rein supreme. She would have crushed her opponents, who would have lost all hope of political advancement or favour. And having delivered Brexit against the odds, she could be pretty confident in staying PM for as long as she wanted, perhaps well beyond the next election – and the election itself would be off the cards till 2022.

Matt Kilcoyne

Remaining in the EU would come at a big price for Britain | 27 November 2018

We're familiar with the warnings about the cost of Brexit. The 'People's Vote' campaign released an estimate yesterday suggesting that Theresa May's deal will leave the UK £100bn worse off a year. Tomorrow, the Treasury will unveil its forecasts of the economic impact of Brexit. But what about the price of staying put in the EU? Whatever those clamouring for a 'People's Vote' might claim, no Brexit does have a cost. Firstly, the price in terms of political capital will be significant. What does going back on the referendum result say to the 17.4million voters who voted Leave? What about the damage done to trust in our institutions and our politicians?

Monday

26 November 2018

Freddy Gray

Why Donald Trump thinks the Brexit deal is no good for US-UK trade

Donald Trump has always been consistent on Brexit. He admired the spirit of the vote, a freedom-loving people defying their elites, as his deplorables would go on to do. He likes Britain. He dislikes the EU, which he has always regarded as a sort of protection racket for German manufacturing and an institution that gets in the way of his golf course development. Ever since Trump’s inauguration, he has made it clear that America is ready to give Britain the ‘beautiful’ free trade deal that so excites Brexiteers. But he and his advisers have been consistently disappointed by May’s insistence that she must stick by E.U. terms and regulations at the expense of improving and deepening the UK-US relationship.

James Forsyth

The mountain Theresa May has to climb to get her deal through

If Theresa May needed any reminder of what a mountain she has to climb to get her Brexit deal through, she got it in the House of Commons this afternoon. Any hope that getting the deal agreed with the EU 27 might give her momentum was dashed as MP after MP stood up to criticise the agreement. Not one MP supported it in the first hour of the session. In part, the wall of hostility came from the Speaker calling those known to be hostile to the deal. But what should most worry May was how critical Michael Fallon, the former defence secretary, was of her deal. If party loyalists, men of government types such as Fallon are having doubts about whether to support it, then it is very hard to see how any Tory rebellion can be kept down to a manageable level.

Robert Peston

Why the Treasury’s Brexit forecasts will be almost irrelevant

The publication by the Treasury of its forecasts of the economic impact of Theresa May's Brexit deal, versus no-deal and staying in the EU, has been keenly awaited. But it turns out that what we will read, probably on Wednesday, will be almost irrelevant. Because what the Treasury has modelled is not the deal actually struck on Sunday by Theresa May, but her Chequers plan. And, as you will be keenly aware, the rest of the EU has rejected her Chequers combination of the UK staying in the single market for goods and the dual-tariff customs territory the Facilitated Customs Arrangement.

Isabel Hardman

How Jeremy Corbyn could cause yet another Labour split on Brexit

Jeremy Corbyn has been clear for a while that Labour will vote against Theresa May's Brexit deal in the Commons. But it's worth keeping an eye on the reaction in his party to the development of a second line in the Labour position, which is that the party has a better plan for Brexit. Today the Labour leader urged the Prime Minister to 'prepare a Plan B', telling the Commons that 'there is a sensible deal that could win the support of this House based on a comprehensive customs union and strong single market deal that protects rights at work and environmental safeguards'.

Steerpike

Watch: Nigel Dodds’s fury at May

Theresa May has managed to anger quite a few MPs in recent weeks with her withdrawal agreement, but none more so than the DUP, who are livid that it creates regulatory barriers between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. And judging by the reaction of one DUP MP in the chamber today, it doesn't look to Mr S like the two parties are going to resolve their differences any time soon. When the DUP's Nigel Dodds asked Theresa May which parts of the backstop (in the words of the Chancellor) would be bad for the union and bad for the economy, he was not impressed that the Prime Minister thought he was talking about the European 'Union' rather than the UK. He was even less impressed though by her eventual answer that the backstop would stop the UK from striking trade deals in future.

Katy Balls

Watch: Theresa May apologises for queue-jumping comment

When Theresa May stood up at the CBI conference earlier this month and declared that under the new Brexit immigration system, EU nationals would no longer be able to 'jump the queue', she met a hostile reaction. The rhetoric led to fellow leaders, MPs and voters going on the offensive over the comments. Today Theresa May took the opportunity to apologise for that comment. Asked in the Chamber by the SNP’s Philippa Whitford whether she wished to apologise for insulting EU nationals like Whitford's husband, a German national and a doctor, who have contributed to society and made a home here, May said she should not have used that phrase: 'I should not have used that language in that speech'.

Isabel Hardman

My deal or chaos: May’s message to MPs as she faces the Commons

It only took a few lines of Theresa May's statement to the House of Commons on her Brexit deal before MPs started making dissenting noises all around her. The Prime Minister started by listing the ways in which the deal 'takes back control' for the British people, telling MPs that this included control of Britain's borders, ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, an end to 'vast annual payments we send to Brussels', protecting jobs through a new Free Trade Area, protecting the country's security and maintaining 'the integrity of our United Kingdom, meeting our commitments in Northern Ireland and delivering for the whole UK family, including our Overseas Territories'.

Theresa May

Full text: Theresa May defends her Brexit deal in the Commons

At yesterday’s Special European Council in Brussels, I reached a deal with the leaders of the other 27 EU Member States on a Withdrawal Agreement that will ensure our smooth and orderly departure on 29th March next year; and, tied to this Agreement, a Political Declaration on an ambitious future partnership that is in our national interest. Mr Speaker, this is the right deal for Britain because it delivers on the democratic decision of the British people. It takes back control of our borders. It ends the free movement of people in full once and for all, allowing the government to introduce a new skills-based immigration system. It takes back control of our laws.

James Kirkup

A Brexit deal between Tories and Labour is just common sense

Despite – or perhaps because of – the fact that I’ve spent most of my adult life writing and talking about politics and politicians, there are still things about politics that I just cannot, on a fundamental level, understand. Top of the list is tribalism, the “my party right or wrong” stuff that reduces public policy to the level of football chants. (Yes, football is another thing I don’t get. Surprising, I know.) Apart from anything else, taking the view that the people and ideas of the other side are automatically bad is surely utterly self-defeating? Politics is about persuading the greatest number of people to agree and support you, whether at elections or during day-to-day governing.

Theo Hobson

Does Theresa May’s Anglicanism explain her muddled Brexit?

Ever since ‘Brexit’ was first breathed, there have been comparisons with Henry VIII’s break with Rome. At first such comparisons seemed a bit far-fetched, for there are some big differences between the Catholic Church and the EU, and between Protestantism and zeal for Brexit. But now they seem uncannily apt. For it looks as if we are embarking on an almighty compromise, a monster muddle middle-way that will be decades in the making. It was about thirty years after Henry’s break that his daughter Elizabeth started stabilising things. Let’s hope we’re a bit quicker to realise that we must lay aside our purism and channel the Tudor spirit of compromise. Now, like then, tidy-minded ideologues on both sides scorn the very idea of a middle-muddle way.

Isabel Hardman

If May forgets to talk to her MPs, her Brexit deal is doomed

Theresa May is back in the Commons this afternoon updating MPs on her Brexit deal. She’s in the middle of a frenzy of campaigning that makes her efforts during the referendum itself look quite lacklustre (admittedly not hard, given how little effort the then Home Secretary put into that campaign), with phone-ins, newspaper interviews and a bid for a live TV debate on Brexit with Jeremy Corbyn. Tomorrow, May is also going to tour the UK to sell her deal to the public. The Prime Minister’s strategy is to talk over the heads of her warring party and straight to the public, in the hope that at least some of those MPs will heed the real opinions of their constituents and switch to voting for the deal in Parliament.

Katy Balls

What happens next? Five Brexit scenarios

Theresa May's deal has been approved by the EU27 but now the difficult part begins. No.10 must work out a way to get the EU withdrawal agreement through the Commons. Given that the number of Tory MPs who have said they won't support it is past the 80 mark (see the full list here), that looks no easy task. A vote is mooted for Tuesday 11th December. So, given that Plan A looks rather optimistic, what are the alternatives? No-one – not even those at No.10 – are entirely certain what would happen if the deal is voted down. However, here are the main scenarios to expect come the vote: MPs back May's deal on first vote At present, this seems an unlikely option. However, if No.

Robert Peston

Will Theresa May’s Brexit deal end up in the dustbin?

Because Theresa May's Brexit deal has been so long in the coming – almost two and a half years – and has been so comprehensively trailed and leaked, yesterday's formal ratification of the terms of our departure from the EU and the shape of our possible future relationship with the EU feels like the mother of all anti-climaxes. But cynicism and lethargy are to be resisted: that ratification really matters. Because because - at last we have THE DEAL. Until yesterday, everything about Brexit was presumption, speculation, rumour and hypothesis. Finally we know what Brexit means to a Prime Minister who had no other job but to find out what it means.

Sunday

25 November 2018

Henry Newman

The Gibraltar ‘capitulation’ is nothing of the sort

What has just happened with Gibraltar? The Prime Minister of Spain had threatened to “veto” Brexit but now says he has received assurances - suggesting that something happened this weekend. It did, but it was more about politics than substance. Spain’s PM, Pedro Sanchez, leads a minority government facing important elections next month. His position is weaker than Theresa May’s and his confidence and supply relationships much more complex. Sanchez's government has been under pressure to call a General Election even since they took over around half a year ago. Which makes a political row over Spain’s national obsession – the status of Gibraltar – the perfect distraction.

Martin Howe KC

Brexit deal: Martin Howe QC responds to No. 10’s ‘rebuttal’

10 Downing Street has published a ‘rebuttal’ to my article in this week’s Spectator looking at the legal implications of the Withdrawal Agreement. Regrettably, its responses to my critique go beyond making a best case for the treaty. Instead, No. 10 seeks to take advantage of the legal complexities to misrepresent the legal effects of the agreement on the first critical point (whether there could be any effective recourse to arbitration) as well as others. Much is at stake, so I have replied to each of its ‘rebuttals’ in bold, below. 1. "Once the Protocol is in force, the UK cannot leave it except by ‘joint’ decision of the UK and the EU. This gives the EU a right of veto over the UK’s exit.

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Jacob Rees-Mogg: Changing strategy means changing leader

‘Away with the cant of “measures not men”! — the idle supposition that it is the harness and not the horses that draw the chariot along. No, Sir, if the comparison must be made, if the distinction must be taken, men are everything, measures comparatively nothing.’ George Canning said this in 1801 and recent events remind us that he was right. In the end the only way to change the policy is to change the person, as the individual determines the direction and is rarely willing to try a different route. As I have known this quotation for decades, it was naïve of me to expect the Prime Minister to change her policy. It is not how it works: the wrong policy means the wrong person.

Steerpike

Knighted Tory MP: I still won’t back May’s deal

Oh dear. Over the weekend No.10 came under much criticism after it emerged that John Hayes had been awarded an impromptu knighthood. Unkind souls were quick to suggest that the motivation for giving the long time Tory Eurosceptic the honour was less than pure. With the crunch Brexit deal vote coming up the track, Tory Brexiteers claimed this was part of a cynical attempt by Downing Street to win a vote in favour of May's deal. Alas, it seems that were these No.10's intentions, their efforts will go unrewarded. Hayes tells the Mail on Sunday that he has no plans to vote for May's deal: ‘As I’ve made very clear before my honour, I cannot support the deal as it now stands.’ So much for the chumocracy...

Matthew Taylor

Sunday shows roundup: Brexit deal under fire

Jeremy Hunt - Approving May's deal 'will be challenging' Today the Prime Minister joined senior political leaders in Brussels to announce the final Brexit agreement reached between her government and the European Union. The deal was approved by the heads of government of the 27 other member states, but it now faces an uncertain future before the House of Commons. The Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt was interviewed by Andrew Marr, who asked about the difficulties ahead: AM: How many Tory MPs do you think will vote against this? JH: Well that’s a very difficult question and the arithmetic at the moment is looking challenging, but a lot can change over the next two weeks. But I think what all of my colleague will be doing is thinking what is in the national interest. AM: ...