Economy

When Jeremy Hunt took the role of chancellor last week, he was thought to have done it under instructions from Liz Truss that he was not to roll back any more of the mini-Budget. That instruction hasn’t stuck. Today’s update on the ‘medium-term fiscal statement’ was not so much a detailed plan to balance the books (that’s still to come on 31 October), but rather a reversal of almost all of the mini-Budget rolled out by Liz Truss and former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng last month. The plan to bring forward a 1p cut to the basic rate of income tax has been scrapped completely. It was thought that Hunt would

The government’s position has become so precarious – and its credibility with the markets so low – that even waiting another two weeks to announce the ‘medium term fiscal statement’ became too big a gamble. By moving the announcement forward to today, Jeremy Hunt is removing the uncertainty of creating a two-week gap between the end of the Bank of England’s intervention in the gilt market and the government’s announcements. And markets are tentatively responding well. Ten-year gilt yields started dropping considerably when the market opened at 8 a.m., from 4.3 per cent down to just under 4.1 per cent. You can follow along with hourly updates via The Spectator’s

Just two weeks ago, Liz Truss told the Tory conference that her priority was ‘growth, growth and growth’. But how much of that can she expect now that her new Chancellor plans to jack up corporation tax from 19 per cent to 25 per cent as the economic headwinds strengthen?  As she never tired of telling us during the leadership campaign, it’s an unusual thing to do at a time of threatened recession: no other G7 country plans to put up taxes in this way. Now that she has agreed to go along with the Sunak plan in the name of assuaging the markets, City forecasters are doing a double-take.

This morning on the media round, Jeremy Hunt followed in the footsteps of Tory chancellors before him warning about the ‘very difficult decisions’ that lie ahead. The new chancellor’s language and tone could easily be compared to George Osborne after the financial crisis, explaining to the country why government spending needed to be curbed. Or to Rishi Sunak, towards the end of the crisis stage of the pandemic, who was constantly reminding MPs and the public about the ‘difficult times ahead’ due to the fallout from economic shutdowns and unprecedented peacetime spending. The crucial difference, however, is that this new talk of spending cuts and higher taxes is in response

If there is anything that the swift overturning of Prime Minister Liz Truss’s purported free market revolution has taught us, it is the utter lack of enthusiasm for economic liberalisation à la Reagan and Thatcher across the West right now. Yes, the lousy roll-out of the mini-budget by Truss’s now ex-Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng played a role in the prime minister’s rapid and multiple U-turns. But bad-PR is only part of the story. Many Tory MPs are plainly comfortable with the economic arrangements prevailing in Britain that successive Conservative governments have not challenged since the Tories returned to power in 2010. For despite the mythologies about nefarious ‘neoliberals’ ruling the world, the

The markets did not crash, so there was not a Black Friday in the way some had envisaged. But this certainly was Black Friday for the Tories, a new low in the party’s history, a debacle to rival Black Wednesday but with none of the economic dividends. A new Prime Minister sacks a Chancellor for doing exactly what she told him to, then declares she will implement every single one of the corporation tax rises that she had spent the summer promising to stop. So it now emerges that Liz Truss stood for leader on a false prospectus, promising an agenda she has quickly proved unable to deliver. Her plan

Last week, I wrote here that 14 October was the key date in British politics, because the expiry of the Bank of England’s gilt-buying programme would force the Government to act to lower gilt yields. Be in no doubt: the sacking of Kwasi Kwarteng today is a consequence of the Bank’s refusal to go on supporting bond prices and artificially shielding the Government from the credibility-shredding consequences of the September fiscal statement. That’s not to say the Bank planned or engineered this. I don’t think Andrew Bailey, the Governor, is a Machiavellian political strategist. It’s just to say that the nature of the UK’s economic and financial position is that

So, no Black Friday. The pound is steady, the FTSE100 up 1.5 per cent, the FTSE250 up more than 3 per cent. Just as fears grew that the end of the Bank of England’s gilt-buying programme could send pension funds to the brink and precipitate a fresh market crisis, the opposite happens: markets embark on a rebound. It won’t necessarily last, of course. The long, miserable decline of stock markets and gilt markets this year has been punctuated, as ever, by periods of optimism, only for a fresh slide to begin. But for the moment it seems as if the big story that is driving markets is the expectation that

When Britain crashed out of the European exchange rate mechanism on Black Wednesday, prime minister John Major phoned the Sun editor Kelvin McKenzie to ask how the day’s events would be covered. McKenzie is said to have responded: ‘Prime minister, I have on my desk in front of me a very large bucket of shit which I am just about to pour all over you.’ With the Bank of England ending its emergency support for pension funds this afternoon, what newspaper editors are saying about the present Prime Minister by market close could come down to the ebbs and flows of these six graphs: 1. It’s all about gilts. Yesterday