Economy

Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement had a curious omission: childcare. The pleas of desperate parents who gathered on Whitehall last month during ‘The March of the Mummies’ appear to have fallen on deaf ears. Demonstrators gathered outside Downing Street banging drums and shouting: ‘Dear Rishi Sunak, we want our choices back.’ So why didn’t the Chancellor listen? Britain’s childcare costs are already among the highest in the world, with the recession and soaring inflation increasing pressures on parents. One way to reduce the burden would be to make nurseries cheaper. For many parents, is cripplingly unaffordable, especially as the current subsidy of 15 hours a week only applies to three and four-year olds.

Britain appears to be enjoying a surge of entrepreneurialism, with more than 200,000 start-ups registered at Companies House between April and June this year alone. However, while many of these are genuine cases of people taking the plunge and embarking on their dream of opening a tea shop, launching a webinar app or whatever, an awful lot are not going to be contributing any cherries to our national pie – and some might well be pilfering a few. Among those unlikely to be contributing are the 36 companies registered last year to a single address in Bristol – not a business park but a small semi-detached house. Or the 95

What does Jeremy Hunt want us to know about the Autumn Statement? The Chancellor is in the final hours of writing the economic announcements for Thursday, and today he had his last Treasury questions in the Commons before he gives his long speech. Hunt has been rolling the pitch more assiduously than an MCC groundsman over the past few weeks, with endless briefings about black holes, tax rises and unpopular spending cuts. Today, he was talking again about how ‘difficult’ things were going to be. He said: ‘Despite the difficulty of the package I will be announcing, I will sadly not be drinking any whisky as I do so.’ Hunt

There is a conundrum at the heart of Jeremy Hunt’s comments leading up to the Autumn Statement. Hunt describes inflation as an ‘​​evil’ that ‘erodes the pound in your pocket’: uncontroversial. So Autumn Statement, he says, has been designed by his Treasury to ‘help the Bank of England bring down inflation.’ But controlling inflation is the Bank of England’s remit, so any action will be indirect. By tightening fiscal policy, Hunt is lifting pressure off the Bank to keep pushing raising interest rates. This will be by design on the part of the Treasury. After Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-Budget, markets were predicting rates headed for over 6

Is the inflationary spike past its peak? That is the obvious reaction to the news that US inflation fell to 7.7 per cent in October, down from 8.2 per cent in September and significantly lower than the 8.0 per cent that markets had been expecting. Clearly, inflation remains high, but US inflation is now lower than at any stage since January. A further couple of months of falls would seem to indicate that, for now, inflation has been tamed. It ought to come as no surprise. The US Federal Reserve has been fighting inflation aggressively all year with interest rates. It is some way ahead of the curve being followed

‘Reparations’, much bandied about at Cop27, is a dangerous word. It speaks of an admission of historic guilt, which no one can deny has a place in public discourse. But its intention is to put a punitive price on guilt itself, rather than to advance collaborative work needed to rectify damage that can be traced back to bad acts, whether committed through greed, prejudice, aggression or ignorance. It says, in short: ‘Don’t send us your supposedly superior expertise and your lectures about how to improve ourselves. Just send cash. And keep sending it until your tortured conscience is assuaged.’ But in relation to climate impacts, the argument over who pays,

We can be grateful for small mercies. 4 November 2022 will go down as the day when a presenter on the Today programme finally challenged a dodgy statistic trying to blame economic collapse on Brexit. The statistic in question was put forward by former Bank of England governor Mark Carney in an interview with the Financial Times last month in which he said: ‘Put it this way, in 2016 the British economy was 90 per cent the size of Germany’s. Now it is less than 70 per cent.’     Was Carney’s ultra-loose monetary policy not part of the cause of today’s inflationary environment? Mishal Husain, to her credit, put this to Carney