Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor.
From our UK edition
6 min listen
Why are one in five school children classified as special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) in 2026? The rates of children being diagnosed with neurodiverse conditions have scaled to disproportionate rates and the costs are a major concern for the government. Michael Simmons takes a look at the data and explores why devolution has provided some kind of a solution.
Peter Mandelson, our short-lived ambassador to the US, has been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office. In a statement to journalists, the Met Police said: Officers have arrested a 72-year-old man on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was arrested at an address in Camden on Monday, 23 February and has been taken to a London police station for interview. This follows search warrants at two addresses in the Wiltshire and Camden areas. Moments before the Met’s statement, Mandelson was photographed being led out of his house by police. The move comes days after the arrest of Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, also under suspicion of misconduct in public office.
From our UK edition
21 min listen
There is an area of public spending nearly double what Britain spends on defence, more than policing borders or our streets. It's servicing the costs of what Britain has borrowed in the past. The growing debt bomb is continuing to climb with real consequences for the taxpayer. Michael Simmons takes a look at the data and speaks to the economist Paul Johnson about what political measures the government will have to take to tackle Britain's debt crisis, what it means for the taxpayer and why the reviving modern monetary theory movement is nonsense.
From our UK edition
Britain is set for another dodgy data scandal. In last Friday’s Reality Check newsletter I picked up on reporting from the Times which called into question the income data used to calculate Britain’s child poverty metrics. Now, the BBC reports that those figures are going to be revised. The result: half a million children who the government previously claimed were in poverty were in fact not. This is obviously good news. But let’s be clear: it’s also a total and utter scandal. The way we measure child poverty has always been a bit of nonsense. It uses ‘relative poverty', which sets a breadline of 60 per cent of median income. The problems with using relative income measures are obvious.
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Will any political party ever take on the triple lock? The answer from Reform’s Robert Jenrick yesterday appeared to be no. At a press conference where Jenrick, Reform’s Treasury spokesman, appeared to junk nearly everything Reform had previously said on economic and fiscal policy. He chucked overboard what was in many ways a left-leaning approach to both economic and fiscal policy and adopted a list of proposals that would be right at home in a Tory manifesto. That included committing to keeping the triple lock – which guarantees the state pension rises by the highest of earnings, inflation or a floor of 2.5 per cent.
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It is Robert Jenrick’s big day out today. The newly-minted Reform ‘shadow chancellor’ made his first speech this morning, where he had the chance to show what kind of chancellor he would be and – sporting a snazzy pair of specs – he had plenty of soothing words to calm the jitters of the bond markets. The top news lines from his presser was his decision to kill Reform’s two-child benefit cap – Nigel Farage’s big offer to Labour voters last summer – and the announcement that he he would support the independence of the OBR and the Bank of England. Is this a missed opportunity for Reform UK? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Michael Simmons and Tim Shipman. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
From our UK edition
Britain seems to be turning a corner. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics show the rate of inflation fell to 3 per cent in January, having risen to 3.4 per cent at the end of last year. This downward trend is in line with forecasts from the Bank of England which expect inflation to hit its 2 per cent target in April. If that trend holds true, then the slowdown in prices won’t just be welcomed by struggling shoppers. This government – whichever ‘phase’ it is now in – has pegged its success and failure to addressing the cost-of-living crisis.
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With Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership in perpetual peril, it seems instructive to pay closer attention to his potential successors. On that, there have been two noteworthy interventions this week. The first from Ed Miliband who told the Today programme: ‘I tell you what angers Keir most about this country, it’s class. It’s the class divide.’ Not to be outdone, Andy Burnham then told a Resolution Foundation think-tank event that the focus of British politics needed to switch to lower earners. They present a Britain where capital exploits cheap labour, resulting in profound and widespread poverty. But that’s not the Britain we’re in Both men seem to want to focus on a country that does not exist.
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Wes Streeting was bang on when he told Peter Mandelson the government had ‘no growth strategy at all’. The Health Secretary's claim seems to have been confirmed by figures, just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which show Britain’s economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in the last three months of 2025. On a per capita basis the numbers were even worse: we're in recession. What is worrying given the make up of our economy is that there was no services growth at all, and construction contracted by 2.1 per cent. The only area of the economy that expanded (by 1.2 per cent) was production.
From our UK edition
10 min listen
This week Keir Starmer faced the greatest challenge to his premiership yet. What will this Prime Minister will be remembered for? Policies which hurt young people. From student loan debt crisis, tax thresholds, ISA allowances and the pensions triple lock, what hope is there for young Brits? Michael Simmons has the data.
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By the end of last week, it was clear the Prime Minister is a goner – the debate moved to the pace of his demise. That sped up yesterday with the resignation of Morgan McSweeney, his chief of staff. Starmer’s prospects looked very bleak indeed when I turned on the Today programme this morning to hear a defence of the PM being mounted by Baroness Smith of Malvern. I wouldn’t pretend to understand the government's communications strategy, but it doesn’t exactly scream confidence when the most senior spokesperson offered up for the morning media round is a junior skills minister from the Lords. A few hours later, the man in charge of that media strategy (and the fourth person to hold the job in 12 months), Tim Allan, jacked his job in and followed McSweeney out the door.
From our UK edition
10 min listen
The sun is setting on Keir Starmer’s worst week in No. 10 – but potentially Kemi’s best. We go into the weekend with MPs publicly calling for his most senior aide, Morgan McSweeney, to step down because of his role in the botched vetting of Peter Mandelson, and with huge questions remaining about how much the Prime Minister knew about Mandelson’s association with Epstein. All of this means that the upcoming by-election on the Labour party’s patch in Gorton and Denton is poised very precariously. Meanwhile, Kemi has seized the opportunity to capitalise on Labour’s woes – but are she cutting through enough? And with her position looking more assured, and fiscal responsibility as their rallying cry, could it nearly be over for her shadow chancellor, Mel Stride?
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25 min listen
Michael Simmons speaks to American economist Peter Schiff about the surge in gold prices, the weakness of the US dollar and why he believes the next major economic crisis is approaching. Schiff argues that recent dips in precious metals are a buying opportunity, warns that years of low interest rates and money printing have created a 'bubble economy' and explains why he thinks cryptocurrencies are 'speculative mania'.
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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has just voted to hold interest rates at 3.75 per cent. While market expectations and pundit’s predictions overwhelmingly foresaw a hold, the vote came in slightly tighter than expected at five against four. The decision came alongside new forecasts from the Bank that predict inflation falling back to the 2 per cent target from April, in what will be a relief to the government and indeed the rest of us. In even better news for Rachel Reeves, in the Bank’s ‘Monetary Policy Report’, also released today, it gave the government some credit for ‘developments in energy prices including from Budget 2025’.
From our UK edition
8 min listen
Housing minister Steve Reed has been boasting about Britain’s housing market since Labour came into office – but is he right to celebrate? The country’s housing crisis seems to be delivering the worst of both worlds. Young people trying to get on the property ladder are being priced out by stubbornly high costs, while older homeowners looking to downsize find themselves trapped, with too few buyers able to afford their homes. Michael Simmons takes a look at the data.
From our UK edition
I want to congratulate the Department for Work and Pensions. They’ve made the excellent decision to – once again – refuse compensation to the Waspi women. The cohort of 3.6 million women born in the 1950s claim to have not been informed that their state pension age would rise – bringing it into line with the male retirement age. Their campaign group (Women Against State Pension Inequity) have led one of the most vocal but ridiculous campaigns in modern British history. Despite leaflets being individually written, information campaigns in doctors’ offices, and relentless TV and online adverts, the group claims that they were not adequately informed of the pension age change, and thus should be compensated from the pockets of the rest of us.
From our UK edition
30 min listen
When Andy Burnham put forward his bid to stand in the Gorton & Denton by-election, the bond markets wobbled. What does this say about the state of Labour and their reputation with the markets? Michael Simmons speaks to former Treasury and Downing Street advisor James Nation about Labour leaders and fiscal policy, why Rishi Sunak was right on inflation and what he has learnt in the private sector since leaving the Treasury.
From our UK edition
9 min listen
The SNP announced their budget last week promising to cut taxes for low income earners. Could this be the smallest tax cut in history? Michael Simmons has the data.
From our UK edition
Last week the Bank of England was warned to prepare for a financial crisis triggered by the discovery of extraterrestrial life. But the really worrying scenario isn’t aliens. It’s us. A century ago the state pension as we know it was introduced. Taxes from employers and their staff were used to pay out benefits to the elderly once they hit retirement age. There was no means-testing, and this benefit for all removed the stigma associated with claiming welfare. It was a roaring success. But it won’t see another 100 years. It’s always been wrong to call it a pension. It’s a benefit paid out of current taxation like any other. There’s never been an investment pot built up or paid into. The state pension runs more like a Ponzi scheme.
From our UK edition
Inflation has crept back up. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.4 per cent in December. That’s up slightly from the 3.2 per cent rise in prices recorded in November – though it is roughly in line with what markets had expected. The main drivers of the CPI rise – the first increase of the rate in six months – were Christmas plane tickets and the government's hike in tobacco duty. Nevertheless, it’s a move in the wrong direction and worrying news for a government whose sole aim, we’re told, is tackling the cost of living. Responding to the figures Rachel Reeves said: ‘There’s more to do, but this is the year that Britain turns a corner.