Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor. Contact him here.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

Andy Burnham’s bond blip, scrapping the OBR & why Rishi Sunak deserves more credit – James Nation

From our UK edition

30 min listen

When Andy Burnham put forward his bid to stand in the Gorton & Denton by-election, the bond markets wobbled. What does this say about the state of Labour and their reputation with the markets? Michael Simmons speaks to former Treasury and Downing Street advisor James Nation about Labour leaders and fiscal policy, why Rishi Sunak was right on inflation and what he has learnt in the private sector since leaving the Treasury.

Andy Burnham’s bond blip, scrapping the OBR & why Rishi Sunak deserves more credit – James Nation

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

Under 50? You’re never getting a state pension

From our UK edition

Last week the Bank of England was warned to prepare for a financial crisis triggered by the discovery of extraterrestrial life. But the really worrying scenario isn’t aliens. It’s us. A century ago the state pension as we know it was introduced. Taxes from employers and their staff were used to pay out benefits to the elderly once they hit retirement age. There was no means-testing, and this benefit for all removed the stigma associated with claiming welfare. It was a roaring success. But it won’t see another 100 years. It’s always been wrong to call it a pension. It’s a benefit paid out of current taxation like any other. There’s never been an investment pot built up or paid into. The state pension runs more like a Ponzi scheme.

Michael Simmons

Why inflation is up again

From our UK edition

Inflation has crept back up. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.4 per cent in December. That’s up slightly from the 3.2 per cent rise in prices recorded in November – though it is roughly in line with what markets had expected.  The main drivers of the CPI rise – the first increase of the rate in six months – were Christmas plane tickets and the government's hike in tobacco duty. Nevertheless, it’s a move in the wrong direction and worrying news for a government whose sole aim, we’re told, is tackling the cost of living.  Responding to the figures Rachel Reeves said: ‘There’s more to do, but this is the year that Britain turns a corner.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

Rachel Reeves: destroyer of jobs

From our UK edition

Rachel Reeve’s jobs collapse is trundling on. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 155,000 payroll jobs were wiped out in the year up to November. Some 33,000 were lost in a single month. In total, over 200,000 jobs have disappeared since the Chancellor’s first Budget when she announced a £25 billion raid on employer National Insurance.  In response to that tax hike, and throughout the uncertainty in the run-up to Labour’s second Budget last year, business paused their hiring plans and stopped replacing staff as they left. They don’t appear to have begun rehiring. Flash estimates for December (which are very likely to be revised) show a further drop of 43,000 jobs.

Saturday

Michael Simmons

Trump slaps Britain with tariffs over Greenland

From our UK edition

Donald Trump has announced that he will impose tariffs on goods from the UK, Denmark and other European countries. The 10 per cent levies on exports to the US will apply to ‘all or any goods’ and come into force from the beginning of next month.  The move is in response to Europe’s opposition to his plan to take over Greenland. It’s worth looking at his explanation which was posted on his twitter clone Truth Social: If no deal is reached by June the tariffs will be hiked again to 25 per cent and remain there until an agreement is reached for the US to purchase Greenland from Denmark.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

Britain’s economy is standing still under Labour

From our UK edition

Britain’s economy is standing still. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics show GDP grew by just 0.1 per cent in the three months to November. The numbers were dragged down by the construction sector, which saw a contraction of 1.1 per cent – its largest fall in nearly three years. GDP grew by just 0.1 per cent in the three months to November There were much better figures for the month of November alone though, which saw growth of 0.3 per cent following a fall of 0.1 per cent in October. That was thanks to services growth of 0.3 per cent and production growth of 1.1 per cent. The Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be hoping that these month-on-month figures – which have come in stronger than economists had expected – will hold out over the long term.

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

Who’s to blame for Britain’s water crisis?

From our UK edition

24 min listen

Thousands of homes across the South East have been without water for four consecutive days. South East Water’s record on water supply interruptions is one of the worst in the sector. Ofwat, the regulator, has placed it in the bottom three companies for disruptions each year from 2020 to last year. What has happened to the water industry in the past decade? And would nationalisation fix it? Michael Simmons is joined by The Spectator's business editor Martin Vander Weyer.

Michael Simmons

The SNP’s Budget was nothing but cynical spin

From our UK edition

Yesterday, Shona Robison, Scotland’s finance minister, delivered her tax and spending plans for the coming fiscal year. The headline message from the SNP was the following: the majority of Scots will pay less tax than those living in the rest of the UK. That’s thanks to a very slight lifting of the threshold freeze on the lower tax bands, resulting in whopping tax cuts of less than £1 per week for the lowest tax-paying earners. The result is that those taxpayers at the bottom of the rung will find themselves £24 a year better off than if they lived anywhere else in the UK. By contrast, those earning £70,000 are faced with a nearly £2,000 premium for living in Scotland. The SNP are masterful at spin and so the message seems to have landed.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

Compulsory digital ID is dropped

From our UK edition

Keir Starmer has just made his 13th u-turn since taking the No. 10 keys. The government, this evening, decided that the digital ID scheme would no longer be compulsory. The IDs were to be used to verify if job applicants had the right to work in the UK – something that is currently done using passports and National Insurance numbers. But, according to the Times, Starmer has now dropped the compulsory aspect of the scheme because of fears it was causing distrust in the principle of digital ID. Under the changed plans there will be an entirely optional digital ID, or workers can use digital versions of existing documents – such as passports – to complete right-to-work checks.

Friday

Michael Simmons

Keir Starmer, pub harmer

From our UK edition

11 min listen

Another year, another U-turn. We expect that the Labour government will be forced to climb down on forthcoming increases to the business rates bills faced by pubs in England. This comes after ferocious industry backlash, spearheaded by figures such as Tom Kerridge, who has been out in the media this week drawing attention to the more than 100 per cent increase in costs some of his establishments are facing. Some are pointing to the slow unravelling of Rachel Reeves’s Budget but – perhaps more damaging – is the optics of this: surely nothing mobilises deep England more than coming for our pubs. What impact will this have on Labour’s credibility? And what impact will it have on Rachel Reeves’s headroom? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Michael Simmons and Tim Shipman.

Friday

Michael Simmons

The ‘boring twenties’, population decline & happy new year

From our UK edition

35 min listen

A far cry from the ‘roaring twenties' of the early 20th Century, the 2020s can be characterised as the ‘boring twenties’, argue Gus Carter and Rupert Hawksley in our new year edition of the Spectator. Record numbers of young people are out of work but even those with jobs face such a dire cost-of-living situation that they have no money left over to spend on fun. Traditional cultural outings – like going to the theatre – are increasingly confined to older, richer generations. This is long-standing issue, but compounded by Labour’s economic policies. A slightly downbeat start to the new year here at the Spectator, but at least the episode provides a free dose of fun.

Tuesday

Thursday

Michael Simmons

Despite the rate cut, inflation remains a danger

From our UK edition

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has just voted to cut interest rates to 3.75 per cent and in doing so has delivered the Chancellor an early Christmas present. The five to four decision brings rates down to from the 4 per cent they’d been held at since August. The cut is the fourth this year and means base borrowing costs are now at their lowest rate since February 2023. The cut has happened because swing voter and Bank Governor Andrew Bailey switched his vote. Markets had anticipated the move, with trades implying a cut had 90 per cent odds. However, the fact the decision swung on a knife edge shows how the MPC is still concerned about the inflation that their previous decisions had allowed to spin out of control.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

Rachel Reeves can’t escape blame for rising unemployment

From our UK edition

Unemployment has risen again. Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the UK’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1 per cent in October – the highest joblessness rate since 2021. Payrolled employment fell too by 38,000 in a single month, meaning 187,000 jobs have now been lost since last November, in a blow to Rachel Reeves’s bizarre claim that her tax-raising measures are not harming employment.  Vacancies fell too after having crept up slightly in the previous month’s figures – suggesting we may not be at the bottom of this jobs slump yet. Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS said, ‘the fall in payroll numbers and increase in unemployment has been seen particularly among some younger age groups.

Saturday

Michael Simmons

Will Scotland switch course in 2026? with Gordon McKee

From our UK edition

18 min listen

The Spectator heads into Christmas a little bit less Scottish as we bid farewell to our political correspondent Lucy Dunn. Before Lucy leaves for STV, she joins Coffee House Shots – with fellow Scots Michael Simmons and Labour MP Gordon McKee – for one final episode reflecting on the state of Scottish politics. They discuss whether the SNP has stabilised Scottish politics this year, make predictions for what could happen at the 2026 Holyrood elections and ponder whether the Scottish influence in Westminster has grown stronger under Starmer. Plus, from Reform to the SNP – how new is the threat of populism in Scotland? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Friday

Michael Simmons

Why Wes Streeting is right about junior doctors

From our UK edition

Junior doctors, now known as resident doctors, will strike from December 17 to 22, which Wes Streeting has said will 'wreck Christmas'. The doctors are demanding a 26 per cent salary rise over the next few years to make up for the erosion in their pay in real terms since 2008 – this is on top of a 28.9% increase they have had over the last three years. Michael Simmons takes a look at their claim over the erosion of their pay in real terms, explains why Wes Streeting is right to call them 'moaning minnies' and offers an alternative solution instead.