Michael Simmons

Despite having a £30 billion fiscal hole to fill Rachel Reeves might be about to splash the cash. If reports are to be believed, in the coming weeks the lifting of the two-child benefit cap will be announced. The cost is £3bn every year.  The cap was introduced under George Osborne to stop families claiming the child element of UC for three or more children. A committee of ministers and officials are due to make a series of recommendations to tackle child poverty before the November Budget, and it’s now widely expected that this will include scrapping the cap.  But will lifting it do anything to improve child poverty? There is some evidence to suggest it won’t.

The Bank of England has held interest rates at 4 per cent. Threadneedle Street’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted seven to two to keep rates where they are. The fact inflation now sits at almost double the Bank’s 2 per cent target outweighed concerns about the slackening jobs market and what its impact on Britain’s lacklustre growth. Two members voted to cut rates to 3.75 per cent, but the overall decision is no surprise. There’s a growing sense that the bulk of committee members feel they perhaps made a mistake in cutting rates last month with inflation still climbing. Markets don’t expect another cut this side of Christmas and the implied chance of a cut at the Bank’s November meeting has fallen to 20 per cent.

Prices are continuing to rise. Consumer inflation stayed at 3.8 per cent last month – matching the figure recorded in July and nearly double the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target.  This morning’s figures on CPI, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), were in line with the expectations of markets and pundits. Air fares, which spiked in July due to the summer holidays, were significantly down compared with last year, which offset a rise in fuel, meaning the pace of inflation did not pick up.   There is a tendency in economic reporting to say that because a reading has come in line with forecasts, then it is good news. But the truth is anything but. Food inflation has increased for the fifth month in a row.

Over the past year, some 142,000 payrolled jobs have been lost, according to the latest labour market figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Another 8,000 disappeared last month alone. Unemployment remained at 4.7 per cent – higher than a year ago. The bulk of job losses came in accommodation and food services, which shed 90,000 workers. The culprit seems obvious: the anti-business tax raid unleashed by the Chancellor in the last Budget. That £25 billion hike on employer National Insurance, as well as the increase in the minimum wage, is not just discouraging job creation but making employers think twice about keeping people on. And with the government’s employment rights bill sailing through parliament businesses fear things can only get worse.

As the Chancellor Rachel Reeves gets to work on her second Budget – to be delivered on 26 November – red lights flash everywhere. Gilt yields were up again as markets lost faith in her ability to balance the books. Reeves or Darren Jones – whoever is really calling the shots – will spend the next few weeks fixated on those yields. The price they land at when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) settles their Budget forecast could make or break the government. I understand that the initial plan was to have a Budget much earlier, but that the decision was taken to put it off for as long as possible in the hope that yields come down a bit in that time. We may even hear calming words from the Treasury today aimed at achieving just that. It’s not all on Reeves though.

‘UK in the drain’, a trader exclaimed earlier today as 30-year gilt yields punched through to their highest level since 1998. London stocks were down and the pound fell too. The message to trading desks was clear: dump Britain. Things have worsened, at least in part, because yesterday’s Downing Street and Treasury reshuffle included no suggestions that the government has emergency plans to fix Britain’s broken fiscal maths and attempt to balance the books. And as I set out in last week’s cover story, markets are not amused. Wherever you look on the yield curve, Britain’s debt is cementing itself as the most expensive in the developed world. Long-term debt – the 30-year gilt – was sold off en masse and passed 5.73 per cent.

Britain is slowly drowning in debt. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that in the financial year to July the state had to borrow £60 billion to tread water. That’s £6.7 billion more than by July last year and the third highest borrowing total for this period of the year since records began 32 years ago. Statisticians also managed to find almost another billion pounds in debt payments that now need to be added to the previous month's figures.  When the Bank cut interest rates, something alarming happened in the borrowing markets There was better news, though, when looking at the month of July alone, with borrowing coming in at £1.1 billion, which was £2.3 billion less than the same month last year and the lowest July figure for three years.

Inflation is up again. CPI climbed to 3.8 per cent last month – up from 3.6 per cent in July, now well above the 2 per cent target that the Bank of England no longer seems all that bothered about missing. It throws fresh doubt on the wisdom of the Bank’s decision to cut rates just a fortnight ago, with prices now climbing to a 19-month high. This morning’s inflation figures, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), show that much of the increase in prices was driven by a large jump in plane tickets and petrol. Economists had expected inflation to tick up – but not by this much. Food inflation has increased for the fourth month in a row. It is now at its highest level in more than a year at 4.9 per cent.

Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected GDP growth raises questions for the Bank of England. Second quarter growth came in at 0.3 per cent (0.2 per cent per Brit) propped up by a strong 0.7 per cent in June alone. The rest of the national accounts however, paint a worrying picture when it comes to inflation.The GDP deflator – which is a measure of the overall level of prices in the whole economy – came in at 4.1 per cent year-on-year growth. That’s down slightly from the last reading but still more than double the Bank’s 2 per cent target. Nominal domestic demand was growing too, at more than 5 per cent – providing stronger growth figures but pouring fuel on the inflationary fire.