Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor. Contact him here.
From our UK edition
What has the war in Iran got to do with Britain’s house buyers? Michael Simmons takes a look at conflicting predictions from economists and the markets on the impact rising oil prices could have on interest rates. 2026 was expected to be one of the best years for first-time buyers to finally get on the
From our UK edition
The IMF has warned Britain is particularly vulnerable to another spike in energy prices, and is more exposed than many of its European neighbours. Why is that the case? And does the government have any real plan to shield households and businesses from the fallout? With the Tories and Reform calling for the government to
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10 min listen
The panic has set in around the cabinet table about this energy crisis, and fears of history repeating itself. Tim Shipman writes in the magazine about the comparisons being made to 1973 and the Opec oil shock, with the government preparing for oil prices to reach £150 a barrel. What levers are available to the
From our UK edition
This week Rachel Reeves ruled out a blanket energy bailout to manage the fallout from the Iran war. That’s the right approach. But her targeting of a bailout – reportedly to those on benefits – risks solidifying Britain’s welfare trap. When the Chancellor gave her economic update to the Commons on Tuesday following an emergency
From our UK edition
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has just confirmed what we already knew: Britain will be hit harder than almost anywhere else by the economic fallout triggered by the war in Iran. Updated OECD forecasts released today slashed predictions of UK growth for this year to just 0.7 per cent from the 1.2
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15 min listen
In the final Prime Minister’s Questions before Easter recess, Kemi Badenoch pushed Keir Starmer to commit to new oil & gas drilling licences. The Conservatives spot an easy win here – cost of living concerns are rising as America’s war with Iran continues. Plus, with a burgeoning welfare bill, the trade-offs are even trickier for
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Prices rose by 3 per cent last month – the same rate as the month before. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that – ironically – falling petrol costs were one of the main things keeping the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) from climbing. This data was, of course, collected before
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22 min listen
Today Rachel Reeves promised ‘support for those who need it most’ as she updated MPs on measures the government is taking as the Iran war risks increasing energy bills. Michael Simmons is joined by Spectator writer Ross Clarke to discuss why energy bailouts won’t work, why Reeves is unfair to pile the blame on Liz
From our UK edition
Britain’s response to the conflict in Iran is dominating Westminster – but is Keir Starmer really keeping the country out of war? After a tense Liaison Committee appearance exposed divisions over defence spending, pressure is also mounting on the government’s economic strategy. With energy prices rising, mortgage products disappearing and fears of inflation returning, how
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After a record tax take and surplus in January, normal service has resumed. Britain experienced its second-largest February borrowing splurge since records began, according to figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Last month we borrowed some £14.3 billion, which was £2.2 billion more than a year before and the second highest
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In a surprise to no one, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has voted nine-zero to hold interest rates at 3.75 per cent. The unanimous decision is the first time the MPC have been in complete agreement since September 2021. Before Trump and Israel’s bombs rained down on Iran, the markets had been
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Finally, some good economic news: Britain may have turned a corner on jobs. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the unemployment rate remained flat at 5.2 per cent in January. On payrolled jobs there was positive news too: employees on PAYE payrolls in February grew at their fastest rate since
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8 min listen
Yesterday Rachel Reeves gave her Mais lecture and said UK would achieve ‘fastest AI adoption in the G7’. Today govt is publishing its position on AI rules that are crucial for keeping AI startups in the UK and not losing them abroad. Michael Simmons uncovers the data that shows just how costly of Britain’s energy
From our UK edition
16 min listen
The Chancellor will deliver the annual Mais lecture today and is expected to focus on closer alignment with the EU, AI and improving Britain’s economic geography (‘levelling up’ in all but name). While her comments on Europe might gain the most headlines, we’re more curious about what she will say over AI – given the
From our UK edition
Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the economy ground to a halt in January, with no growth recorded. That was despite economists and businesses reporting a brighter start to the year. Economists had expected January to see growth of 0.2 per cent. Over the three months to January we did
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With Donald Trump signalling that he does not want a long war in Iran, markets have started to settle down. Traders are no longer betting on interest rate hikes, the FTSE is in the green and a barrel of oil is hovering around $90. Nevertheless, the pressure on the Chancellor to set out further financial
From our UK edition
The US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said today will be the most intense day yet of American strikes on Iran. Over the weekend, Donald Trump claimed the war could soon be over – and suggested the US has already effectively won. He also took aim at Keir Starmer, accusing Britain of joining wars America
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Just as Britain’s economy looked to be ‘turning a corner’, it may be about to slam into a wall. The warning signs were obvious last week. On Monday, I’m told, the ship insurer Lloyd’s of London saw its ‘war desk’ hit its annual sales target within the first two hours of trading. As you read
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30 min listen
Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel as the war with Iran intensified over the weekend. Since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, without a solution to the severe disruption in crude oil flows, how hard will we feel it back in Britain? And why has Britain left itself so vulnerable from its energy policy?
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A few weeks ago I thought a March interest rates cut was ‘near certain’. Inflation was coming down and Bank of England rate-setters’ concerns about wage growth were being replaced by fears that higher rates were contributing to rising unemployment. In my defence, markets agreed: they priced the chances of a cut at over 80
