Lockdown

As more good news about vaccine efficacy rolls in, questions are already starting to be asked about what it means for the Prime Minister’s lockdown timetable. Boris Johnson has committed to publishing his ‘roadmap’ out of lockdown — but news from the last few days may be influencing what that roadmap looks like, especially the PM’s top priorities of getting children back to school and lifting major social distancing restrictions. Today’s antibody survey from the Office for National Statistics shows 15.3 per cent prevalence in England, up from 10.7 per cent last month. This time around, the increase is not just due to infections: vaccines are playing their part too.

In these dreary days one of my few remaining distractions is perusing the readers’ comments at the foot of online articles about Covid in French newspapers. It’s like being ringside at a ferocious boxing bout. In the blue corner the Millennials, and in the red corner, the Soixante-Huitards, the 68ers, the French term for Baby Boomers. Neither generation is pulling their punches. The Millennials are fed up with their sterile existence in which bars, restaurants, cinemas and theatres have been closed since October. Liberte! they cry. They’ve seen the stats, that of France’s 76,000 Covid deaths, the overwhelming majority are aged 65 or above; only 0.5 per cent are from the 15

England’s national lockdown is set to run on until at least March. Speaking in the Commons chamber this afternoon, Boris Johnson confirmed that the return of pupils to the classroom would be the first thing to be eased – and this would not happen in February as he had previously hoped. Addressing the House, Johnson said ‘it will not be possible’ to reopen schools in England after the half-term break next month. However, he remained hopeful that so long as the UK’s vaccination programme remained on track, the return of pupils to the classroom would be able to begin from Monday 8 March. Given that No. 10 have no plans to

Unemployment continues to rise. Today’s update from the Office for National Statistics estimates that unemployment in the three months to November hit 5 per cent — that’s an estimated 1.7 million people out of work, a 0.6 per cent rise on the previous quarter.    Not every figure is as positive as the surface data would suggest The gradual climb suggests that the furlough scheme continues to hold off mass redundancies and provides further evidence that England’s second national lockdown didn’t hit as hard as the first. But the unemployment rate is set to worsen before it improves, with more optimistic forecasts estimating a peak of around 6 per cent

As the government comes under pressure from Tory MPs to provide a timeline for pupils returning to school, the Health Secretary remained tight-lipped in the Monday government press conference on when lockdown will be eased. Asked whether any guidance could be offered on the issue, Matt Hancock cited the number of people admitted to hospital – twice as many as in the first peak – and on ventilators to show there is a long road ahead. The Health Secretary said that the majority of people understand why it is difficult to put a timeline on ending lockdown. He did though point to the factors that would decide when it could

The government’s most important economic policy is its vaccination programme, I say in the magazine this week. The speed at which people are immunised will determine when — and how quickly — the economy can reopen. ‘The advantage the vaccine has given us is so huge that we have to protect that’ But even when the so-called ‘non-pharmaceutical interventions’ are lifted domestically, there will likely continue to be restrictions on those entering from abroad. The view is that testing and tighter procedures at the border will be needed to protect the UK from the danger of any vaccine-resistant strain. Priti Patel’s admission this week that the government should have shut