Inflation

The fight for a $15 minimum wage started in 2012 with a bang. Hundreds of Walmart, port, and fast food workers walked off their jobs in protest of low wages. An organization called Fight for $15 formed in 2014 following two national strikes by laborers. Seattle became the first city to require a $15 minimum wage that same year. The White House issued an executive order that required new federal contracts to include a $10.10 minimum wage because legislation had stalled in Congress. The stalled federal push led to more state and local action. California and New York put together slow-rising $15 minimum wage laws in 2016 and 2017. Eight other states, mostly in New England, followed with plans to reach a $15 minimum wage by 2026 at the latest.

Interest payments on the national debt rose 70 per cent last month to £7.6 billion (compared with a year earlier) – largely because of the impact of inflation on income paid to holders of index-linked gilts, which are inflation-protected government bonds. More worryingly, this was 49 per cent more than the official forecast made in March by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It suggests the OBR’s forecast that the government will have to pay £87.2 billion in interest payments (a colossal sum) may be too low, especially since the ONS is not factoring in the most recent inflation figures in its calculations of the monthly bill.

There is no shortage of reasons to feel gloomy about the American economy right now. First, there’s inflation. In 2021, the Biden administration claimed that the cost of a summer barbecue had declined by 16 cents from the year before. It probably now wishes it hadn’t made that claim. This summer, the cost of that barbecue is up not 16 cents but 17 percent. Hot dogs are up 37 percent over a year ago. This is the highest inflation in forty years, with the consumer price index up 8.6 percent from a year ago. Some necessities, such as gasoline and food, have risen even more sharply, with gas having gone from $2.18 a gallon when Biden was inaugurated to $5.

As a recession looms, policymakers have predictably turned to entrepreneurs to start new businesses and jumpstart the economy. While this may be a good political talking point, the fact is that new business formation has never shortened a recession or reduced its impact. Some economists have looked to Covid to explain the unprecedented number of new businesses that sought IRS tax IDs during the pandemic. Washington’s touted “surge in entrepreneurship” is proving evanescent, however. Many individuals, facing economic lockdowns and the prospect of extended unemployment, decided to create businesses, often from home. Few of these companies will ever employ anyone except their founders — and rates of new business formation are already falling back to pre-pandemic levels.

To nobody’s surprise, the Bank of England has hiked its base rate, and, equally unsurprisingly, it has chosen to do so by a relatively modest 0.25 per cent, bringing rates to 1.25 per cent. In 25 years of its existence, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has never raised rates by more than 0.25 per cent at a time. That stands in contrast to the Fed’s decision to raise rates by 0.75 per cent on Wednesday. If the modesty of the rise was supposed to calm markets, however, it doesn’t seem to have worked. The FTSE100, already down nearly 2 per cent on the day, plunged further on the announcement.

Cardi B, the well-known rapper and mixologist, has finally acknowledged the financial reality facing many Americans today. Last week, she tweeted, “When y’all think they going to announce that we going into a recession?” Cockburn notes that such astute words perfectly capture how the Biden administration has raised costs for everyone, from the working class to those who can afford to live in this economy, also known as millionaires. Thankfully, the administration responded to her concerns. Janet Yellen, the secretary of the treasury, replied, “Don’t look to me to announce it. I’m not going to announce it. I don’t think we’re going to have a recession. I expect growth to slow down. We have a very strong economy.

It sounded impressive at the time. On the last day of May, a whole ten days ago, president Biden laid out a three-part plan for bringing inflation back under control. It consisted of making sure the Federal Reserve was allowed to do whatever it took to control prices, releasing oil and gas reserves to try to bring down the soaring costs of energy, and fixing supply chains to try to make industry and retailing more competitive. ‘I have made tackling inflation my top economic priority,’ he announced grandly. To listen to the rhetoric from the White House, you might think that this was an issue that could be fixed with a few tweaks to public policy, after which the President could happily go back to taxing and spending on an unprecedented scale. The problem would be solved.