Diplomacy

There have been some sharp responses to the demise of the proposed BAE EADS merger. My personal favourite is John Redwood’s pithy: ‘Several of you wrote in expressing dismay at the proposed tie up between BAE and the Franco German civil aviation company. I did not write about it, as I assumed it would be an impossible deal to execute. The documentation was very voluminous, so I did not bother to read it. The politics were always likely to bring it down, so there was no need to analyse the business, economic and strategic issues.’ There seems to be little surprise that the deal collapsed. Most commentators welcome the failure, despite the commercial sense of the proposal.

The weekend’s six power talks with the Iranians about their nuclear programme were more fruitful than many, including I, expected. It seems that the EU sanctions on Iranian oil and gas, which are due to come into force in July, have concentrated minds in Tehran. However, we won’t know whether the Iranians are just playing for time again until the next set of talks in Baghdad on the May 23. These six power talks are an imperfect vehicle in that the Russians and the Chinese take a far softer line than the French, British, Germans and Americans. But as James Blitz blogs over at the FT, one of the most striking things is that the Europeans are tougher on Tehran than the Americans who are very keen to avoid having Iran dominate Barack Obama’s re-election campaign.

For the populist president of Argentina, Cristina Kirchner, the ban on Falklands-flagged ships agreed by the Mercosur summit in Montevideo is a diplomatic triumph. It comes after a string of similar moves throughout the region aimed at tightening the noose around the Falklands. For example, HMS Gloucester was denied access to Montevideo in 2010 and, in an effort to strengthen Brazilian-Argentinian ties, Brazil did the same when HMS Clyde sought to dock in Rio de Janeiro. In reality, ships from the Falklands can switch flags before they enter any regional ports, but Argentina’s intent is to isolate the islands — and bring fellow South American nations along with them in the process. In which case, the default British response of talking war is beside the point.

Yesterday — as Pete pointed out earlier — the Obama administration filed criminal charges against two individuals, Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, claiming that they worked with Mexican criminals and for the Iranian government on orders to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. The plot has met with denials from Tehran, which “categorically and in the strongest terms condemn this shameful allegation.”     But, if true, the plot would only be the latest in a long-standing feud between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The struggle between Riyadh and Tehran has become the Middle East’s central conflict, overshadowing even the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

As Daniel wrote this morning, the Middle East peace process has returned to the headlines. Palestinian President Abbas has called for Palestine to be granted full membership of the United Nations, adding that the Palestinians had “legitimate right” to full membership. Abbas added that he remained committed to working with Israel, but said that negotiations had reached “an impasse, a dead end due to the stubborn policies of the Israeli Government that reject commitment to reference of negotiations based on international legitimacy.” This announcement would appear to have made Britain’s diplomatic position no less uncertain. Just as before, Britain’s position will depend on the precise wording of the resolution.

The half-brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai has just been murdered outside his fortified compound in Kandahar. Ahmed Wali Karzai was the political kingpin in Kandahar province, formally serving as head of the provincial council. I am told by officials that he was killed by one of his bodyguards at a checkpoint; the killer was then shot dead by other bodyguards. A senior FCO official has said that David Cameron would want to give his condolences on a “personal basis” to President Karzai for his loss. That said, many people in the British government will not be all that unhappy with the demise of Wali Karzai – or “AWK”, as he was known. AWK was certainly a controversial figure.