Brexit

The Brexit compromise that satisfies nobody

The EU referendum result was relatively narrow. 52/ 48 per cent is a very different result from 55/ 45 per cent or 60/ 40 per cent. In these circumstances, seeking some kind of compromise to try and unite the country seems sensible. But the problem is that while there is a coherent case for leaving the EU and a coherent one for staying in, it is hard to see what the coherent case is for leaving the EU only to become a permanent member of the EEA and stay in a customs union with the EU. A compromise along these lines would satisfy nobody. It wouldn’t deal with the sovereignty

Theresa May is making Cabinet unrest on the customs partnership worse

Boris Johnson’s rather bold move on the customs partnership hasn’t yet landed him in trouble, even though it has enraged some of his pro-Remain colleagues. At the Number 10 lobby briefing today, the Prime Minister’s spokesman avoided giving the Foreign Secretary a slap down when asked whether Theresa May was happy that he had told the Mail that the customs partnership plan was ‘crazy’. Instead, the spokesman used the sort of formula of words that declines to offer any sort of comment on anything at all: ‘There are two customs models that were first put forward by the government last August, and most recently they were outlined in the Prime

Heidi Alexander joins the march of the moderates out of Westminster

The march of the Labour moderates away from Westminster continues, with Heidi Alexander the latest to quit parliament. The Labour MP announced this morning that she will stand down from her seat and take up a job working with Sadiq Khan at City Hall. Her departure is no real surprise: speculation has been rife for a while that she would quit. It has also been obvious that Alexander wasn’t happy, to say the least, working under Jeremy Corbyn. Alexander was one of the first to quit the shadow cabinet in 2016 in the wake of the referendum. At the time, she told Corbyn that ‘a change of leadership is essential’,

Watch: IDS’s Sky News Brexit clash

Cabinet is certain to be tetchy this morning after Boris Johnson called the PM’s preferred customs arrangement ‘crazy’. Things were no different on Sky News just now when Iain Duncan Smith popped up to discuss Brexit. IDS clashed repeatedly with Adam Boulton as the pair discussed borders, Brexit and whether Boris would do a better job than Theresa May. Here’s how it unfolded: IDS: Let me finish, because you need to understand what the problem is AB: No, but you’re making an assertion IDS: No, I’m not … IDS: Adam, sorry, just wait. Let me finish. Wouldn’t you like to know the answer to that question? AB: Yeah IDS: Right,

Theresa May won’t abandon her customs partnership idea: but she should

Theresa May has received a shot in the arm from the local election results. But, as I say in The Sun this morning, she still needs to deal with the whole customs partnership question. Even after the remarkable rebuff that the ‘new customs partnership’ received from the Brexit inner Cabinet on Wednesday, despite the Prime Minister putting her authority on the line by making clear her support for it, Number 10 won’t give up on the idea. It believes that with a few changes it can be made to work. Already, ministers are being told that what really matters is getting out of the EU. The case is being made

The UK economy isn’t all doom and gloom

This is an extract from this week’s ‘Any Other Business’ column.  The UK economy grew just 0.1 per cent in the first quarter, says the ONS, reflecting low construction activity, sluggish manufacturing, squeezed consumers, Brexit uncertainties and bitter weather. That’s the worst quarter since 2012 — so no wonder I had such a feeble response to my call a fortnight ago for evidence of feelgood. Two readers broke through the gloom, however. The first is a veteran banker who lends to small-to-medium UK corporate borrowers and describes himself as ‘miserable, cynical and pessimistic’ by nature and experience. But ‘to my pleasant surprise we’re seeing strong demand from a variety of

The Spectator Podcast: Mayday!

In this week’s podcast, we discuss Theresa May’s impossible situation – how can she get herself out of the bind created by the Brexiteers and the Remainers? We also discuss the hostile environment policy, and ask, will Ireland appeal its Eighth Amendment? First, Theresa May finds herself in a real dilemma. Her cabinet colleagues, the EU and her advisors are all pulling her in different directions over the question of the customs union. While Remainers argue that a ‘customs partnership’ is the only way to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland, Brexiteers believe ‘max fac’ (a maximum facilitation agreement, which includes a technology based border in Ireland) is the

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s critics are missing the point

Surprisingly though it may be to some of my readers I have never been that bothered about Brexit. I even voted Remain – not on the strength of the economic arguments, which I thought fairly evenly balanced – but because I could see the danger in precipitating the break-up of the European Union: that it might lead to the drift back eastwards of former Soviet bloc countries. But once the decision was made I was very happy that it be executed, so long as it be in an economically liberal way and done properly; not leaving us stuck in some halfway house where we are bound to EU rules, bound

The Brexit delusion

As time passes, some things become clear. The problem isn’t Brexit; the problem is the Brexiteers. Or, to put it slightly differently, while Brexit may be sub-optimal, the Brexiteers are much worse than that. They are awful.  Extraordinarily, Jacob Rees-Mogg is now the bookmakers’ favourite to be the next prime minister. As the champion of the backbench Brexiteers he can no longer be dismissed – or, indeed, indulged – as an enjoyable eccentric. He is serious and perhaps now merits being taken seriously himself.  As an intellectual matter, Brexit remains a respectable cause. The vision of Brexit imagined by The Spectator has much to commend it even if I think

Can May’s Brexit stance survive its latest Lords defeat?

Another day, another Brexit defeat in the House of Lords for the Government. This time around, peers have voted to back an amendment to the Brexit bill which would hand Parliament, rather than ministers, the power to decide what to do if MPs reject the final deal agreed with Brussels. The margin in today’s vote was considerable: 335 to 224. But more worrying for the Government is the number of times it has been now been defeated in the Lords on Brexit, with this afternoon’s vote marking the seventh time peers have gone against the Government on the issue. Among those who backed the amendment were 19 Tory lords, including

Is Brexit a human rights emergency? The UN seems to think so

How easy it would be to be goaded by the visit of Tendayi Achiume, the UN’s “Special Rapporteur on Racism” to Britain. “My mission…will focus on explicit incidents of racism and related intolerance as well as attention to structural forms of discrimination and exclusion that have been exacerbated by Brexit,” she says, as well as “xenophobic discrimination and intolerance aimed at refugees, migrants and even British racial, religious and ethnic minorities”. How tempting it will be for some to tell her to bug off and deal with some real human rights abuses. But I am not going to be goaded, even if there will be many left-liberal-types who will be

What does the French white van man think about Brexit?

I am living in Paris in the unofficial role of Diplomatic Wag. Though since I am neither wife nor girlfriend, but fiancée, or, in best Franglais, la vielle balle et chaîne, I have been searching for a new acronym. Foho (Foreign Office Hanger On)? Andy is a ‘Directeur de SIN’, a demonic job description out of C.S. Lewis’s The Screwtape Letters. SIN is the government’s Science and Innovation Network, promoting collaboration between international scientists. There is goodwill in laboratories on both sides of the Channel to go on working together post-You-Know-What. Brexit is pronounced to rhyme with Brigitte, as in Bardot. Parisians ask if you’re American or English and when you say English

Brexit isn’t to blame for dismal GDP growth – and nor is the weather

The government’s opponents were not slow, as usual, to blame today’s disappointing data on economic growth on Brexit (the IOD) or ‘austerity’ (John McDonnell) – while the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, chose to fall back on that old chestnut used by corporate spokesmen when announcing dismal results: the weather. None of these will really do as an explanation as to why GDP growth, according to the ONS, plunged from a healthy 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of last year to a miserable 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2018. As for Brexit, GDP figures have been shrugging it off for nearly two years – the economy even

Portrait of the Week – 26 April 2018

Home No. 10 insisted: ‘We will not be staying in the customs union or joining a customs union.’ The undertaking came after a defeat for the government on the matter in the House of Lords and before a vote in the House of Commons. The government proposed two alternatives: one being a ‘customs partnership’ in which the UK would collect tariffs on the EU’s behalf on goods coming from other countries, and the other being a ‘highly streamlined customs arrangement’. Jacob Rees-Mogg called the notion of a customs partnership with the EU after Brexit ‘completely cretinous’ and remarked that Theresa May, the Prime Minister, ‘is carrying out the will of

Nicola Sturgeon’s response to Brexit has utterly failed

What’s Nicola Sturgeon playing at on Brexit? Quick answer: politics. Longer answer: politics.  The SNP leader has rejected a deal to resolve the impasse between Westminster and Holyrood over the repatriation of powers from Brussels. She accuses the Tories of a ‘power grab’ because some areas of responsibility will initially go to the UK rather than Scottish parliament and threatens to deny consent to the government’s Brexit Bill. If she does so – and her SNP holds a majority of seats at Holyrood with unofficial junior coalition partners, the Greens – it will fix a procedural wheel clamp on Brexit. At which point, the only way the Bill could go

A decade in crisis

‘I voted to stay in a common market. No one ever mentioned a political union.’ It is the complaint of an entire generation — the generation, by and large, that switched its vote between 1975 and 2016. It is also, as Robert Saunders shows in this eloquent history of the earlier poll, based on a false memory. Anti-Marketeers in 1975, especially Tony Benn and Enoch Powell, constantly talked about ‘our right to rule ourselves’. Supporters of the EEC, for their part, were never happier than when lecturing voters about the benefits of swapping theoretical sovereignty for actual power. But the voters — empirical, practical, Anglo-Saxon — wanted examples. Abstract nouns

David Davis tries to calm fears over a customs union reversal

For those Brexiteers worried the government may change its mind on leaving the customs union, David Davis’s appearance in front of a select committee gave reasons for reassurance – but also possibly some cause to worry. The Brexit secretary was clear that he is sticking firmly to his guns on the issue. But can he – and the government – continue to do so under pressure from MPs who are seeking to keep Britain inside the customs union? Hilary Benn asked Davis what would happen if the vote in Parliament on the Brexit trade bill went against the government. Here’s what Davis had to say: Benn: You have emphatically rejected

Who is making the case for leaving the customs union?

Whole industries will be devastated. There will be thirty mile queues of lorries stretching back from Dover. The price of food will rocket, our farmers will be wiped out, and the IRA will be letting off bombs all over the UK as the Troubles return to Northern Ireland. With every day that passes, the scare stories about leaving the customs union are getting more and more hysterical – and the pressure is growing to stay inside. In fact, most of it is nonsense. The fifth largest economy in the world is perfectly capable of managing its own trade arrangements. But leaving needs a big sell. Why? Because there is a

Why Brexiteer ministers are so concerned at the moment

Senior Cabinet Brexiteers are more concerned about the project than they have been in some time, I write in The Sun this morning. The reason for this is that there is a concerted push underway to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU for good even after December 2020. If Britain is to take full advantage of the opportunities that Brexit offers, this must be resisted. A customs-arrangements between Britain and the EU which speeds up checks, minimises bureaucracy and helps maintain cross border supply chains would be sensible, and mutually beneficial. What wouldn’t be, is a situation where the EU determines both the taxes charged on goods

Low life | 19 April 2018

A week ago I plucked my eight-year-old grandson Oscar from the bosom of his rumbustious young family and took him on an orange aeroplane to Nice, and from there up into the hills of the upper Var to spend 11 days in our breeze-block shack. His second visit. On his first, last August, the temperature hit 45 degrees Celsius and we were roasted alive. This one, though, was relentlessly cold and wet and the mop and bucket were in constant use in the living room. Confined to barracks, we played Dobble, a card game akin to snap, but more complicated and requiring sharper wits. Several games of Dobble revealed beyond