Latest from Coffee House

Latest from Coffee House

All the latest analysis of the day's news and stories

Does Trump have to ‘finish the job’ in Iran? 

The missiles and bombs may have stopped, at least for the moment, but the war between the US and Iran continues. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the US sanctions remain in place, and the fundamental issues separating the combatants remain unresolved. The bilateral negotiations have gone nowhere, and the two sides remain far apart. This stalemate has puzzled observers since it’s not hard to see the outlines of a deal. For Iran, the minimum acceptable goal is regime survival. For the US, it is the end of the Iranian nuclear program, which poses an existential threat to America’s regional partners and, eventually, to Europe and South Asia. Since the regime’s survival and the end of its nuclear program are compatible goals, a deal should be possible.

Trump

How the Declaration of Independence made America

King Charles III and his wife Camilla have been on a state visit to the White House meeting Donald Trump and the First Lady. At a state banquet in the evening, both Charles and Trump gave speeches celebrating the special relationship. The event marked 250 years of American independence. Freddy Gray spoke to the author Michael R. Auslin who wrote the book The Declaration of Independence: History, Meaning and Modern Impact, which explores the Declaration of Independence as a revered relic, a symbol of American ideals, and a manufactured cultural icon in his research.

How the Declaration of Independence Made America

Why America’s democracy needs the British monarchy

Perfect spring sunshine beamed down on King Charles III and Queen Camilla as they slowly made their way down the sloping lawn of the British Embassy in Washington this week. None of the hundreds of eager Americans gathered at the Embassy’s garden party had ever seen a British king in the nation’s capital. The last visit was in 1939, by King George VI, when a similar garden party took place in the shadow of the gathering storm in Europe.

Is OpenAI losing its shine?

Sam Altman has always been a charmer. At school he reveled in the art of persuasion, joining a school debate team and taking part in national tournaments. After charming his teachers, Altman graduated into charming investors, launching a startup at just 19 before working his way up to become president of Silicon Valley’s premier startup incubator, Y Combinator. Last year, OpenAI managed to spend more on marketing and employee share options alone than it made in overall sales When he later joined OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, his charm was key to recruiting a team of some of the brightest coders and scientists in the world. But for some who worked close to him, the charm started to rub off: they realized he was very good at telling them what they wanted to hear.

zohran mamdani

Mamdani vs monarchy

Mayor Zohran Mamdani of New York has faced what others might consider awkward moments in office, as when two Islamists, inspired by ISIS, tried to immolate anti-Muslim protesters outside Gracie Mansion. He passed it off with aplomb by saying the two bomb-carrying individuals were “suspected of coming here to commit an act of terrorism.” In a later statement he acknowledged that the two men had proclaimed “their allegiance to ISIS.”  That counts for boldness on Mamdani’s part. He is considerably more comfortable denouncing Israel, defending the “globalize the intifada” slogan and lamenting anti-Muslim bigotry, than he is in acknowledging New York’s history of terror attacks by Islamists.

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The US is back in charge of the oil industry

The United States is getting sucked into a conflict in the Middle East, central banks are desperately trying to keep inflation under control and the world is facing an energy shock that may cripple the global economy. There are lots of ways the world looks very similar to the early 1970s. And yet, it is now clear that there is also one significant difference between now and then. Whereas half a century ago, the oil cartel OPEC was rising in power, with Tuesday’s shock decision by the United Arab Emirates to quit the group, it is clear that it is falling apart. In reality, the US is taking back control of the fossil fuel industry – and that is of huge geopolitical significance.

Charles III delights ‘No Kings’ Democrats

President Trump lavished praise upon King Charles from the Oval Office at the outset of his four-day state visit to the United States. He called the monarch “a man of class” and said “it’s great to have a king in here”. A conspicuous absence of “No Kings” protests in the presence of a real king had not gone unnoticed. But it was Charles’s address to a joint session of Congress that was eagerly awaited on both sides of the Atlantic. His most substantial public speech since he acceded the throne in September 2022, there was a good deal riding on its success. His mother had addressed Congress in May 1991. Her text was an uncontroversial message of “collaboration and respect” between the two nations.

King Charles
christian turner UK ambassador

British Ambassador torpedoes King’s state visit

Oh dear. Just when you thought a British ambassador to the US couldn’t possibly cause any more grief for Sir Keir Starmer, enter Christian Turner. Turner’s predecessor Peter Mandelson set a high bar for humiliating the country's government, but the career diplomat – who took up post in February – has given Mandelson a run for his money. The latest kerfuffle centers on a leaked recording of Turner dispensing pearls of wisdom to a group of British students on a jolly to DC, in the same month that he took up residence. The audio, obtained by the Financial Times, contains a selection of eyebrow-raising comments, not least the ambassador’s verdict that the much-vaunted "Special Relationship" is rather "backwards-looking" and weighed down by "baggage.

Ukraine

How the Ukraine war could end in revolt

Ukraine and Russia are exhausted. Neither side is close to defeat and yet discontent is growing on both sides. In Russia, open criticism of the regime is spreading. Social media influencers have, bizarrely, led the charge. In Ukraine, fury is directed at press gangs who hunt down young men and force them, often violently, into the army. Today, the chances of some kind of political crisis in either Kyiv or Moscow seem more likely than a great breakthrough on the battlefield.  In Russia, there was a rare example of the Kremlin responding to criticism earlier this month when influencer Viktoria Bonya posted an Instagram video addressing Vladimir Putin. “The people are afraid of you, artists are afraid, governors are afraid,” she said. “There is a big wall between you and the people.

India

Why has Trump turned on India?

President Donald Trump, not someone to let a good insult go to waste, has caused outrage in India after sharing a social media post describing the country as a “hellhole.” Trump did not make the disparaging remarks himself, merely reposting the statement (without comment) on his Truth Social account. The words actually came from the conservative podcast host Michael Savage, as part of an attack on birthright citizenship. “A baby born here becomes an instant citizen, and then they bring the entire family in from China or India or some other hellhole on the planet,” the Savage said. He accused Indian immigrants in the tech industry of not hiring white native-born Americans, and also said that they lack proficiency in English.

The rise of left-wing violence and why we’re all numb to it

The alleged gunman from the White House Correspondents' Dinner has been named as 31-year-old Cole Tomas Allen. He was arrested at the scene armed with a shotgun, handgun and multiple knives. It later emerged the suspect sent a note to family members before the shooting, apologizing to parents, colleagues and bystanders for what he was about to do. He wrote: "I apologize to everyone... who suffered before I was able to attempt this, to all who may still suffer after, regardless of my success or failure." He added that he may have given "a lot of people a surprise today" and, although he did not name President Trump directly in the writings, he did criticize him and mentioned targeting the administration.

The rise of left-wing violence and why we're all numb to it

SAS: how Keir Starmer broke the special forces alliance with America

The Pentagon has become concerned with the British government's attitudes toward its special forces. Freddy speaks to Richard Williams and David Davis MP about the historical significance of the special forces relationship and how America is now considering withdrawing the invitation to participate in and benefit from this combined military machine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?

SAS: how Starmer broke the special forces alliance with America

The targeting of Trump tells its own tale

“I can’t imagine that there’s any profession that is more dangerous,” Donald Trump told reporters just hours after the shooting incident at the annual White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner in Washington, DC. This is true enough. Violence against US presidents is, unfortunately, nothing new. Everyone knows this long and bloody history all too well. It includes the killing of John F. Kennedy in Dallas in 1963; the two assassination attempts within days of each other on President Gerald Ford in 1975; and the attempt on Ronald Reagan’s life, when he was shot and seriously wounded at the Washington Hilton hotel – the same venue at which Saturday’s attempted shooting took place – in 1981. Even so, Trump stands out for the growing number of attempts on his life.

disunited states

What Harry and Meghan don’t get about royal visits

King Charles III’s state visit to Washington this week is the monarchy executing its core diplomatic function with precision and dignity. In Donald Trump’s Washington, an invitation to an event with the British monarch remains the most sought-after in the city. By stark contrast, the King’s son and daughter-in-law careen around the globe representing no one but themselves. They dress up as royals in a sustained exercise in self-promotion and profiteering that repels observers and belittles the very institution that gave them their platform. One upholds the Crown’s purpose, while the other commodifies it. The Sussexes’ grift cheapens the Crown’s reputation and insults the public’s intelligence The King and Queen travel as invited guests of the US government.

What I heard inside the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

The evening had started pleasantly enough. The most alarming thing about the party I was attending in the Hilton Hotel where the Washington Correspondents’ Dinner was being held were the $18 martinis. Those, and the woman in the nice black dress screaming “criminals” at the police as they dragged her out the door as I arrived. Protesters had gathered outside. They chanted indiscriminately at guests filing through the entrance, calling for an end to the war in Iran and to free Palestine. I was one floor above the main dinner at a party hosted by ABC, engaged in the kind of self-congratulatory socializing this weekend was designed for, when heavily armed police officers started moving through the room. First one, then several – and they wouldn't explain why.

Correspondents

Shots fired at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

Donald and Melania Trump entered the hall at 8:16 to cheers and applause. “Hail to the Chief” was followed by presentation of the colors and the National Anthem.  We had a brief introduction from Weijia Jiang, this year’s president of the White House Correspondents Association, followed by dinner. Two questions hovered in the background. One, how would President Trump treat the press? And two, would he, as had many presidents in the past at this event, treat the audience to a little self-deprecating humor? “Donald Trump” and  “self-deprecation” are not words you often hear together, but who knows?  The President is also a master communicator who reads his audience well.   We never found out.

Trump believes Britain has betrayed the SAS

The Special Air Service, Special Boat Service and other elements of UK Special Forces are held in the highest regard by the Pentagon and by US special operators. British and American special forces have forged a bond of trust over decades with joint high-risk operations and combined training. A recent visit to Washington made clear that the American leadership on both sides of the political divide, and within the military and intelligence services, believe the current British government has broken that alliance. America views the SAS and SBS as equal to its own tier one special forces operators in Delta Force and SEAL Team Six. The eight saber squadrons of the SAS and SBS contribute a significant amount of the special forces’ manpower relied upon by both countries.

SAS

Ukraine won’t give up at the behest of Donald Trump

Four years after President Putin bragged that he would "demilitarize and denazify" Ukraine, it still stands free. Talking to locals, expats, journalists and diplomats recently in Kyiv, I found a profound sense of realism and a confidence. Ukraine’s military strength is burgeoning. Its people are determined to see things through. They are cautiously optimistic. Although life is looking up after an exceptionally difficult winter, one astute insider noted that the country faces the same strategic challenges: a larger, implacable, and cunning enemy; economic fragility; $500 billion damage to infrastructure; US hostility; and steady civilian and military deaths. The faces of the fallen were everywhere.

The Palantir manifesto doesn’t go far enough

Tech companies like Palantir now find themselves in a bind. Wanting government contracts, they have a reason to stay politically neutral. At the same time, they rightly suspect that the greater part of the left has already marked them for destruction. The hostility has little to do with Silicon Valley’s enthusiasm for Austrian economics, or its occasional calls for a property-based franchise – an old National Liberal demand rather than a fascist one. Rather, the left is hostile to technology because it is America’s conservative party, suspicious of anything that threatens to undermine old solidarities.

alex karp palantir

The contempt Trump feels for his NATO allies is mutual

The war in Iran has revealed plenty about America’s ability to inflict damage on its enemies, Tehran’s capacity to resist pressure and Washington’s broader tendency to get itself stuck in the Middle East – a region several US presidents planned to extricate from. The conflict has been paused since April 7 due to a ceasefire that Trump extended earlier in the week. But it is nonetheless revealing a gradual systemic shift in the so-called international order that has been bubbling beneath the surface for years. The movable object is none other than the transatlantic alliance which, through NATO, has bound the United States and most of Europe into a single security construct.

NATO

Why Trump is threatening the Falklands

There are still those who argue that President Trump’s aggressive, impulsive and inconsistent foreign policy is radical and disruptive, and because of this delivers results. The jury remains out on that. But there is one aspect of international affairs in which Trump is at a marked disadvantage. This is an expression of anger, not a policy The President is often governed by impulse, satisfying his instinct of the moment. That has been underlined by a leaked email from the Department of Defense, setting out a list of potential punishments for countries which so far have failed to support Trump’s military action against Iran, Operation Epic Fury. The lack of cooperation has enraged the President, who bears grudges and is sensitive to perceived slights.

Don’t whitewash Michael Jackson

We’re not used to famous pedophiles having a great talent; perhaps because all of their drive goes into their secret obsession, they’re generally just operators with a lot of front. It’s been easy to slice the cultural contributions of, say, Jerry Sandusky from one’s life and not feel the least absence. If the chattering classes are allowed to keep their Eric Gill, why can’t the dancing classes keep Michael Jackson? On the other hand, we’re inclined to give Caravaggio a pass, as he was such a great painter as well as a boy-abusing murderer – and it was such a long time ago, that the victims can't speak out. The same goes for the pedophile Paul Gauguin, who spent many years spreading syphilis among a proportion of the girl children of Tahiti.

Russell Brand is everything that is wrong with the world

There are few stranger public careers than that of Russell Brand, the former "comedian" turned MAGA cheerleader-in-chief. He has given an interview to Tucker Carlson, another figure who has been on his own peculiar journey, and has announced his intention of running for Mayor of London in 2028, on a vaguely defined but somehow sinister platform that includes "pragmatic" democracy for "people who live in London, who love London." He is the strutting, peacocking representation of all that is wrong in contemporary society Brand has railed against most of Sadiq Khan’s innovations, asking: "Do you want ULEZ cameras? Do you want congestion charges? Do you want this type of policing where people are arrested for Facebook posts? Do you want us to focus on contemporary rape gangs?

russell brand

How real is the ‘Trumplash?’

Freddy is in DC and is joined by Daniel McCarthy from the Heritage Foundation to discuss why the Iran war is unpopular in America; the significance of China ahead of Trump's visit; plus NATO, Europe and "Trumplash.

trumplash

The tawdry shenanigans of the Southern Poverty Law Center

In the financial world, most frauds are short-lived. Ponzi schemes such as Bernie Madoff’s eventually run out of new suckers to provide enough funds to pay the phony “returns” promised to earlier investors. When the cash flow dries up, the scam collapses. The con artists at the non-profit Southern Poverty Law Center have a different racket, and a different problem. Instead of swindling the public with promises of unrealistic, too-good-to-be-true investment returns, the fear-mongering SPLC sold “paranoia porn” to credulous donors, convincing them – falsely – that the country is full of dangerous right-wing extremists who need to be identified and brought to heel.

southern poverty law center

France isn’t ready for its first openly gay president

France is ready to elect its first openly gay president. That is the belief of Gabriel Attal, who discusses his homosexuality in the memoir that was published yesterday. Attal became the first gay prime minister of the Republic when he was nominated by Emmanuel Macron in January 2024. At 34, he was also the youngest, a man described as a "mini Macron." Attal is busily promoting his oeuvre – En Homme Libre (As a Free Man) – with media interviews and book-signing appearances. He told one radio station yesterday that being gay was "not at all" a barrier to becoming president. "Our country is more open and tolerant than it realizes," declared Attal.

Who is really leading Iran?

In declaring an extension to the ceasefire in the Iran war, President Trump signaled clearly enough that he would prefer to strike a peace deal with Tehran. J.D. Vance, the Vice President, has been kicking his heels, waiting to return to the Pakistani capital Islamabad for another go at achieving a breakthrough. The Iranians keep blowing hot and cold on whether they are ready to play their part. Trump suggested in a social media post earlier this week that he believes this is because Iran’s government is "seriously fractured." His ceasefire extension is aimed at allowing the regime time to deliver a new proposal. Trump may want to hammer everything out in Islamabad, but he is not dealing with an ordinary government operating under a straightforward power structure.

iran

It’s little surprise that an Israeli soldier was caught desecrating a crucifix

There’s something apposite, I suppose, about the desecration of a crucifix. In this case, it was an Israeli soldier in southern Lebanon who took a sledgehammer to one on private property and smashed the Jesus figure on the cross. The original crucifixion, as anyone who heard the gospels over Easter will recall, was marked by the humiliation of Jesus; this attack on the figure of one who took on suffering willingly was another humiliation, through the image. Mind you, if the charmer with the sledgehammer had reflected that the Christ-figure is, in Christian belief, not just God-made-man but God-made-Jew, he might have eased off a bit.

Is Russia’s economy really on its last legs?

The head of Swedish military intelligence has dropped what he clearly regards as a bombshell. Thomas Nilsson told the Financial Times this week that Russia's economy is far weaker than it appears, that the Kremlin systematically manipulates its statistics to fool Ukraine's Western allies, and that the central bank is understating inflation, which he believes is closer to 15 percent than the official 5.86 percent. For good measure, he endorsed the German intelligence service BND's earlier estimate that Russia's budget deficit is understated by $30 billion. One need not be a Kremlin agent to find this less than convincing. That Russia's economy is struggling is not in dispute.

Virginia referendum loss adds to Trump’s woes

In 2020 Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to lose Virginia twice since William Howard Taft. Then in 2024 Trump lost once more, this time to Kamala Harris. Now he has in effect lost it a fourth time as Virginia voters approved on Tuesday a fiercely contested referendum redrawing congressional districts to favor Democratic congressional candidates in the 2026 midterm elections. "This is really a country election. The whole country is watching," Trump said. If so, it watched Trump suffer a major blow – one that will prompt renewed questions about his political acuity and judgment.

Virginia

Why Iran doesn’t want peace

Perhaps we should be used to be this by now. Yet again, there have been a flurry of promises to rapidly achieve peace in Iran. Yet again, the American administration has threatened to destroy the nation’s infrastructure. J.D. Vance is again flying to Pakistan for more talks. And yet the conflict shows no sign of ending. We don’t know whether the Iranians will actually turn up. A foreign ministry spokesman said yesterday that Iran will not be joining the talks. The speaker of the parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has also made clear that the regime won’t negotiate under threat of civilizational destruction. Why would they resist peace talks? There is both a diplomatic and domestic answer.

iran peace
anna paulina luna

Congress needs an ethics overhaul: Anna Paulina Luna

Washington’s problems are not hidden. Many of them simply go unaddressed. On Capitol Hill, “open secrets” persist because Congress has chosen to look the other way. Ask almost any staffer on Capitol Hill, and they can tell you which offices to avoid, which members have a reputation and which situations are quietly tolerated because confronting them would be politically inconvenient. Rumors are not just whispered behind closed doors; they are broadcast to virtually anyone dialed in to the right frequency. Leadership hears them. Colleagues hear them. The press often hears them too. And still nothing happens. Awareness is not the problem. The blatant absence of accountability is.