Last week was one of realpolitik, Trump-style. Greenland was sorted, the ‘New Gaza’ unveiled, and all that was left was Ukraine and Russia. Donald Trump went from Davos back to the US but ordered his special envoys to Abu Dhabi, armed with the president’s formula for ending the war in Europe, to get a deal to stop the killing and destruction.
As the envoys from the US, Russia and Ukraine opened the talks on Friday in the capital of the United Arab Emirates, none of the pre-signalling indicated that a breakthrough was in the offing. Two days were allotted for the meetings, in the expectation that it wouldn’t just be a round-robin of the same, familiar arguments.
After the first trilateral talks since the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, ended on Saturday, the chief negotiator from Kyiv sounded relatively satisfied with the progress on day one. Rustem Umerov, formerly the minister of defence, said the first session had focused ‘on the parameters for ending Russia’s war’.
The aim of the talks, he said, was to progress towards ‘a dignified and lasting peace’.
The diplomatic language didn’t fool President Zelensky who said it was too early to draw any conclusions. ‘The key is that Russia must be ready to end the war it started,’ he said in a statement in Kyiv.
Despite the cautious reactions, there was one new ingredient to the talks, and, as a result, the timing of the trilateral session could not have been more apposite.
The announcement that Vladimir Putin had been invited to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza was surely a subtle (not a word normally associated with the US President) hint to the Russian leader that the invitation to involve him as a chosen head of state should come with a quid pro quo: compromise over Ukraine and stop the war. Abu Dhabi was not supposed to be about ‘frank and useful’ talking. Trump wants it to be the start of proper deal-making.
Steve Witkoff, the all-action billionaire friend of Trump’s, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, spent hours on Thursday evening talking with Putin after flying to Moscow from Davos.
Before he left Davos, Whitkoff commented: ‘We are at the end now.’ Before then flying to Abu Dhabi, he sounded optimistic, summing up what was left to negotiate: ‘I think we’ve got it down to one issue, and we have discussed iterations of that issue, and that means it’s solvable.’
The one issue, of course, is land. There is no obvious solution. Whitkoff’s use of the word ‘iteration’ underlines the multiple attempts that have been made to find a territorial formula for the Donbas region which will satisfy both Putin and Zelensky.
On the face of it, there is no possible solution, given Putin wants the whole region to become Russian sovereign territory, and Zelensky is desperate to hang onto the 12 per cent of Donbas still under the control of Ukrainian forces. Russia occupies almost all of Luhansk, one of two provinces in the region, and about three-quarters of Donetsk. In terms of real estate, Ukraine still controls and defends about 2,550 square miles of land in Donbas, including crucial strongholds and well-defended towns.
Putin has stuck to his unmovable red line
The only solution to the land issue that has made sense is the idea that both parties would retreat from Donbas, turn the region into a demilitarised zone and convert it into a free economic area. It’s part of Trump’s revised 20-point plan for Ukraine.
However, until now, Putin has stuck to his unmovable red line. He says Donbas must be handed to Russia, and he has rejected any thought of ordering his soldiers to withdraw from occupied territory, especially since his forces have made small but significant gains in recent months. As a consequence, Putin has more leverage than Zelensky.
Putin’s negotiators in Abu Dhabi arrived with no remit to offer Zelensky a white dove of peace. This will continue to be the case until the Russian president, against all expectations, changes his mind.
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