Politics

After Theresa May's deal was defeated in the House of Commons for a third time, there's heightened speculation that we could now be heading for a snap election. With the Withdrawal Agreement defeated by 58 votes, even if No. 10 tries to put it to another vote it's hard to see how May would manage the numbers. This is why talk has turned to an early election. In the immediate aftermath of that result, both Jeremy Corbyn and the SNP's Ian Blackford called for one. Meanwhile, Theresa May gave the biggest hint yet that she could go for one – 'I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this House'. If MPs fail to get behind May's plan, they could use the indicative votes next week to push for a softer Brexit in the form of a Norway style model or a permanent customs union.

MPs could have voted to take back control yesterday, instead—as I say in The Sun this morning—they decided to hand control to the EU. The EU Council will meet on the 10th of April to decide whether to offer the UK a further extension or not. It remains unlikely that the EU will force a no deal outcome on the UK. But any extension they offer the UK is going to involve this country taking part in the European Elections. On Monday, MPs will vote again on various Brexit options. The options that might get a majority, though, would go directly against what the Tories said in their election manifesto. Could a government really seek to negotiate something that was directly contradictory to its manifesto? This is the question preoccupying Cabinet Ministers this weekend.

As MP for the constituency which covers Newmarket, health secretary Matt Hancock will have met a few bookmakers in his time. He has even won a horse race himself, of amateur jockeys in a charity event. He will know the Conservative leadership is the sort of open race with appetising prices – not least the 10-1 which William Hill is today offering on him. I have never met Mr Hancock, and can’t say I even particularly like him, but I am sorely tempted to have a flutter. Why? Because Conservative leadership contests, for all their drama, are pretty easy to read. The winner is almost invariably the credible candidate who, at the time of the election, has succeeded in offending the fewest number of Conservatives.

There is an obvious solution to the Brexit problem. It is based on a recognition that we want out and that the EU leaders want the moral high ground. Give it to them. Get them to expel us from the European Union. It cannot be too hard for them to persuade the ECJ, or some new body invented for the purpose, to declare the United Kingdom in breach of ‘European values’, and kick us out. Then we would leave with nothing at all, except our liberty. We might even bribe them for the privilege. As it is, we are committed by Mrs May to paying £39 billion, but that is over several years, and involves much ‘doubt, hesitation and pain’. Why not offer them, say, £10 billion on the nail, in return for them punishing us?

Home The House of Commons voted to take Brexit business into its own hands, passing by 329 to 302 an amendment by Sir Oliver Letwin. This was immediately described by Sir Bill Cash in the House as ‘constitutional revolution’. Three ministers resigned so as to vote for the amendment: Alistair Burt, Richard Harrington and Steve Brine. The Commons move followed a sorry visit to the EU summit of the other 27 heads of government by Theresa May, the Prime Minister, who ate pizza outside the room where they all enjoyed dinner. She had asked for Brexit to be delayed till the end of June, but was told that it would take place on 22 May if parliament voted for her withdrawal agreement.

Writing a piece on why the ‘Revoke Article 50’ petition is a waste of time, for an audience consisting of the student body of the fourth most Remain city in the country (Oxford), is not the easiest task. So I’ll try to avoid making the arguments that the petition-signatories amongst you might be expecting me to make: I could frame my argument around the fact that some of the signatures appear to have come from all over the globe – including from North Korea – and that, therefore, this petition is broken and should have no bearing over our politics: this is why we register to vote and then do so at a local polling station. But I won’t.