Politics

Read about the latest political news, views and analysis

Emmanuel’s folly

 Montpellier An embattled, incompetent leader distrusted and disliked by a vast majority of voters. A wobbly economy that might be tipped into recession by Brexit. A re-energised opposition. Huge street protests. Squabbling with European partners. The government is paralysed, the opposition is emboldened — and the nation stands humiliated, as the world looks on in horror wondering how a leader who was so popular two years ago could get things so wrong. Not Theresa May, but Emmanuel Macron, the politician who may be the greatest Brexiteer of them all. As the saga of British withdrawal enters its final chapter, Macron has emerged as the loudest advocate for pushing Britain out the door, deal or no deal, consequences be damned. Why does he behave in this way?

Brexit’s last best chance

It’s been even more humiliating second time round. The United Kingdom has again been reduced to asking the European Union for an extension to the Article 50 process. Once was bad enough but twice marks a profound failure of government and Parliament. It has left the EU deciding the country’s future. In Westminster, there is no sign of a resolution to the Brexit impasse. Cross-party talks between Labour and the Tories continue. Sources close to those talks feel that a common position is unlikely to be found. A deal between the two parties would require that Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn both be prepared to split their parties. This seems unlikely.

Be thankful our economy isn’t shaped like Germany’s

This is no time for schadenfreude — but take comfort from the fact that the UK isn’t built like Germany. Being a world-leading exporter of manufactured goods — which they are and we’re not — is all very well until orders from China fade, Donald Trump adds you to his list of trade foes, your flagship car industry goes into spasm, and even the mystic waters of the Rhine get in on the act by falling to levels that impede the movement of cargo. Now the German economy is close to recession, with falling factory orders and a Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing (in which results below 50 indicate contraction) of 44.7, its lowest since 2012. Consensus 2019 growth forecasts have dropped to 1 per cent, and some pundits expect much worse.

You win, parliament. Now revoke Article 50

Dear Remainer parliament. Although we’re the voters who spurned the petition for this very course of action, we the undersigned formally request that you please revoke Article 50 at your earliest convenience. For Philip, Oliver, Dominic, Amber, Greg, et al (forgive the familiar first names, but over the last few months we’ve come to feel we know you so terribly well), this appeal from your nemeses may come as a surprise. After all, it was to appease us knuckle-draggers that you invoked the Article in the first place. Apologies for seeming so fickle. But in what Charles Moore has aptly dubbed Europe’s contemporary ‘empire’, all roads lead not to Rome but to Brussels.

The bodycon Tory

‘Get some boomerangs,’ Liz Truss says to her aides. The Chief Secretary to the Treasury isn’t looking for something to throw — she is referring to the short videos on Instagram for which she is becoming famous. She has carved out a reputation in Tory circles for her love of social media, which she uses to poke fun at friends, rivals and herself while promoting her upbeat brand of liberal, free-market conservatism: what she calls ‘Tories with attitude’. If a battle is to be fought for the soul of the Tory party, it’s one she intends to join. Once described as a Cameron cutie, Truss has been on a journey since first entering government seven years ago.

iPlod

Monday wasn’t the best day for the government to launch Online Harms, its white paper on internet regulation. As Sajid Javid was proudly proclaiming that Britain would have the toughest internet laws in the world, it emerged that a British woman had been arrested on a trip to Dubai and faced up to two years in prison for describing her ex-husband’s new wife as a ‘horse’ on Facebook. So does the Home Secretary want the UK to have tougher internet laws than the United Arab Emirates? If so, he might find himself at odds with the Foreign Secretary, who has been working behind the scenes to secure the poor woman’s release.

What’s left for Brexiteers?

My first encounter with a plan to hold not one but two referendums on Britain’s European Union membership happened more than three years ago. At least two individuals were actively entertaining the idea. Both were Leavers. Dominic Cummings had proposed it in one of his blogs. Boris Johnson had not publicly endorsed such a thing, but (I know) was discussing it with interest privately. The thinking, as I recall, was similar in both cases. The first referendum would be the one we then faced: asking voters for a yes or no to the idea that in principle we should quit. If the result was Remain, we’d remain. If Leave, there would follow two years negotiating a draft withdrawal agreement.

After yet another election win, what’s next for Benjamin Netanyahu?

Benjamin Netanyahu has done it again, discreditably but indubitably. If Tuesday's Israeli election was a referendum on his character as well as his competence, Netanyahu’s campaign tactics explained why. When his erstwhile allies to his right challenged him as the New Right, he manufactured an even newer set of allies from even further right, and invited Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) into his next coalition. When the Blue and White centrists challenged him on his left flank, he derided Blue and White’s leader, ex-general Benny Gantz, as a mentally unfit leftist, and promised to annex Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Roger Scruton’s sacking exposes the Tories’ cowardice

So the New Statesman decided to interview Sir Roger Scruton. Perhaps there are those who think that Scruton should not have agreed to be interviewed by the New Statesman, the left-wing magazine being unlikely to conduct a fair interview. But Scruton was the magazine’s wine columnist for many years, and under the editorship of Jason Cowley the magazine has been a slightly fairer and less battily leftwards publication than it was of old. But today the magazine’s deputy editor, George Eaton, took to social media to announce the results of what he is parading as a 'gotcha' interview. The interview – which Eaton conducted himself – was, he promised, positively crammed full with ‘a series of outrageous remarks’.

Theresa May’s destiny is in Donald Tusk’s hands now

Is this the end? The tragedy is that she no longer knows. The Prime Minister’s destiny is in the hands of Britain’s de facto head of state, Donald Tusk. On March 20th, Mrs May told Parliament that ‘as Prime Minister’ she couldn’t countenance delaying Brexit beyond June 30th. If Tusk refuses her request for a second short extension, it’s hard to see how she can continue.  Theories and predictions abound. The noted political philosopher, Gina Miller, suggested yesterday that Mrs May could be using the Lab/Con talks as a scam that will enable her to complete a no-deal Brexit on April 12th and saddle Labour with the blame. The flaw in this scenario is that it credits the noodle-brained May with a degree of intelligence.

George Osborne’s curious criticism of Roger Scruton

In November last year, a row kicked off when the government asked the philosopher Roger Scruton to chair the Building Better, Building Beautiful Commission, which will investigate the beauty of architecture in the UK. The 75-year-old philosopher was criticised by opposition MPs in the Commons for remarks he had made in the past about homosexuality, Islamophobia and alleged anti-Semitism. Now, fresh scrutiny has been applied to the government's decision once again, after Scruton gave an interview in the New Statesman in which he repeated some of his more controversial remarks. The government have since axed Scruton as an advisor. However, many are still questioning why Scruton was appointed to the position in the first place, given that many of his views have long been public.

Britain’s liberals have fallen out of love with democracy

Every now and then there is a political moment, some event or comment, that reveals just how much society has changed. This week contained one of those moments. On Tuesday it was reported that nine pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong had been found guilty of causing a public nuisance by taking to the streets five years ago to demand a greater democratic say in how their society is governed. And on the same day, the exact same day, the Guardian published an article with the headline ‘Democracy is overrated’. Most voters have ‘no idea’ about what’s going on in the world, the piece argued, and therefore it would be better if they just didn’t bother voting.

Benjamin Netanyahu has defied his critics again

With 97 per cent of votes counted, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu looks poised to secure a remarkable record fifth term. Pundits had said Israel’s election was too close to call, and in many ways it was. Both Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party and its main rival, the centrist Blue and White alliance look set to gain 35 seats in the 120 seat Israeli parliament, the Knesset. But Netanyahu has a much better chance of forming a coalition with the smaller right wing and religious parties. Nothing is decided for sure yet. Most of the remaining three per cent of the votes are those of soldiers and diplomats who don’t live in their home voting districts.

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn have been undone by Brexit | 10 April 2019

One could almost look on Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn and see a story of frustrated love. They could be happy, the soppy observer might think. If only they could get some time on their own, and unburden their hearts, they would find they were in perfect agreement. Alas, their inability to be honest with each other keeps them apart, and prevents them knowing their true feelings. Brexit is not a romance but a national tragedy. But in one respect at least it matches stories of unrequited love. Brexit is being defined by the inability of political leaders and much of the media to be honest with  themselves – and indeed anyone else. The result is the greatest outbreak of political lying of my lifetime.

Eight reasons why young voters are turning away from the Tories | 9 April 2019

It's plain to see that the Conservative party has a youth problem. Millennials are turning away from the party in their droves. But what is actually causing this dire Tory performance among young voters? There are eight reasons, any of which on their own would present a problem. Together, their combination is creating a conveyor belt towards oblivion for the party. Part of the reason why youngsters are not voting Tory can be explained by the higher number of them who come from an ethnic minority. Only two in 100 voters aged 85 or over are black or ethnic minority; this compares to around 20 per cent of those aged 29 or under. Such voters tend not to back the Tories.

Theresa May must stand up to Emmanuel Macron’s Brexit posturing

In this the 115th anniversary week of the Entente Cordiale, the French president and the British Prime Minister will meet twice, today at the Elysee Palace and tomorrow at the European Council in Brussels. But neither of those meetings will be to celebrate their countries friendship. When May goes to Paris and then to Brussels, she will instead be a woeful supplicant in the Brexit feuilleton. And the one thing the vicar’s daughter can count on is that she will be subjected to a severe bout of Macron lesson-giving and severe sermonising, as is his wont. And yet Macron is hardly in a position of strength. Both leaders are battling domestic crises that come to a head this week. The British PM’s Brexit woes are only too well known.

Theresa May’s Brexit strategy is brewing trouble within her party

The Commons has voted by 420 to 110 to approve Theresa May’s decision to ask for an extension to the Article 50 process to the 30th of June. It isn’t a surprise that this motion passed, there is an anti no-deal majority in the Commons, but the 97 Tory votes against and the number of abstentions, including several Cabinet Ministers, highlights how controversial May’s approach is within her own party. May’s approach would become even more controversial if she agreed to a customs union as part of a deal with Labour, as Liam Fox’s broadside against it showed. The talks between the government and Labour finished for the day earlier and will now not resume until after the European Council.

EU officials and Brexiteers share a similar concern over Brexit

Rumours continue to circulate that if a long extension were to be granted by the European Union, it could be flexible. This would mean that Britain could officially depart from the bloc earlier than the agreed-upon exit date if a deal were secured between the UK and the EU27. I’m unsure what about the past two-and-a-half years could make someone think that MPs will pull together and unite around a deal before crunch time. I remain deeply sceptical that a long extension could ever encourage a shorter exit process – evidenced by not one, but two requests for an Article 50 extension in the past six weeks.