Politics

The Conservatives are naturally very determined not to repeat the mistakes of the last election campaign, particularly when it came to the way the party’s manifesto was ‘dumped’ on an unsuspecting public in the middle of the campaign. Campaign aides say the 2017 mistake was not to roll the pitch in the run-up to the big, controversial announcements on social care that Theresa May’s manifesto contained. That’s why Boris Johnson today surprised the CBI by announcing he would postpone his planned corporation tax cut and instead put £6 billion into public services.  Now on one level this announcement isn’t anything like the sort of controversial policy that seriously undermined May two years ago.

As the election campaign enters its third week, the Conservatives are enjoying a 17-point lead, according to a YouGov poll. However cautious Tory MPs are quick to point out nothing should be taken for granted, as this is broadly speaking where the Tory party was at this point in the 2017 campaign. But for Labour to have a chance of forming a government come 12 December, Jeremy Corbyn needs to change the political weather. He has two set piece opportunities this week to do just that: Tuesday's leader's debate and Labour's manifesto launch. ITV’s planned television debate has the potential to move the dial. The first head-to-head debate of the campaign has led to cries of foul play from smaller opposition parties who have been excluded from the meet.

Last week, Boris Johnson made a last-minute change to his itinerary in the West Country after protesters from Extinction Rebellion and others had gathered outside a bakery he had planned to visit near Glastonbury. The visit, it was reported, had not been publicised, but word had nevertheless got out. The Prime Minister swerved off to the nice, placid cathedral city of Wells instead.   I have reported on elections in democracies – real and sham – around the world. And what leapt out from this little episode was not the change of schedule per se; such things happen. It was the detail that would-be protesters had managed to find out where he would be, even though the visit had not been publicised. Not publicised?

On the Marr show this morning, Jeremy Corbyn was asked – and refused to say – five times whether he would campaign for Leave or Remain in a second referendum. Referring to himself in the third person, Corbyn said the only thing Corbyn could reveal was that we would have a close trading relationship with the EU. Mr S. says that Mr S. thinks this is a bit of a cop out. Here is a clip of part of the discussion: [embed]https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1196011540257722368?s=20[/embed] Andrew Marr: If you become prime minister, when you become prime minister, do you want this country to leave the EU or not? Jeremy Corbyn: We're going to put that choice to the British people and they will make that decision.

I have a shameful secret. I’ve been watching these… videos online. Amazing what you can get in a couple of clicks these days. Being what the Corbynistas deride as a Centrist Dad, I have taken to seeking out short films of taboo figures like Tony Blair and Barack Obama, talking about current affairs and being pained, maturely -analytical, and thrillingly reasonable. If Brexit is your problem, Mr Blair asks, if parliament can’t decide between two or more -different flavours of Brexit and lots of people think the flavours on offer are worse than no Brexit at all, doesn’t it make sense to ask the question directly in a referendum rather than muddling it with a raft of other issues in a general election? Ooh. That’s the good stuff right there.

At times, it can be hard to avoid the preachy style of reviewing that talks to readers in the tone of a teacher ordering you to eat your greens. This, I’m afraid, is one of them. If you know what’s good for you, watch Spotlight on the Troubles: A Secret History on BBC iPlayer and wonder, not only at the quality of the journalism, but about what Brexit will do to Ireland and Britain. It is an education and not just for the ignorant. For me and those like me who thought they knew a little Irish history, it shows we knew next to nothing. The 30-year war and the cynicism and viciousness of its main players is played out. A counter at the bottom of the screen ticks up over 3,000 as it records the rising death toll.

Some were surprised when history lecturer and Brexit party candidate Kevin Yuill revealed that there were plenty of secret Brexit supporters in British universities. As another out-and-proud academic Brexiteer, I am happy to report that I too have come across my own fair share of pro-Brexit colleagues. But we should not underestimate the isolation that many of those Leave supporters feel within the world of higher education. One consequence of being open about my views is that it has led to people of all political persuasions contacting me, often out of the blue, keen to discuss Brexit. Some are critical. Others are just intrigued to know why I hold the views I do.

It will be the biggest moment of the campaign so far. On Tuesday night, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn will go head to head in an ITV debate. I say in The Sun this morning that this debate is the biggest risk that Boris Johnson has taken in this election. There’s a reason why none of his predecessors as PM agreed to such an encounter. But Boris Johnson’s team calculated that this debate was worth it as it enables them to frame this election as a choice as to whether you want Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn as PM. He has a 22 point lead on this question and asking it brings 2017 Tories who have gone over to both the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party back into the fold. Tuesday night’s format should favour Boris Johnson.

Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron have more in common than just a desire to 'get Brexit done'. The pair also recognise the threat posed to the West by Islamic extremism  - and the Prime Minister can learn from the growing determination of the French president to stand strong against the hardliners and in defence of mainstream Islam. Last weekend in Paris an estimated 13,500 people gathered for a 'Stop Islamophobia' march, among them Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing France Insoumise party, Esther Benbassa of the Green Party and Philippe Martinez, head of the CGT union.