Uk politics

The odds are still stacked against Theresa May’s Brexit deal

Government loyalists are grim-faced today. There is no sign of a breakthrough in Brussels and Theresa May’s deal appears to be heading for another defeat on Tuesday. May’s problem is that everyone thinks that they get what they want by voting against her deal. As I say in the magazine this week, lots of ERG types have convinced themselves that they’ll eventually get the Brexit they want, come what may. If the Brexit deal goes down on Tuesday, the Commons is highly likely to compel the Government to request an Article 50 extension. At that point, the UK will be a supplicant: it’ll be up to the EU to decide

David Davis tries to widen his appeal

With Theresa May’s departure expected later this year, a host of ambitious males are keen to parade their wares. Frontrunner Boris Johnson has lost weight and is the RSPCA’s new pin-up boy, while Sajid Javid is trying to show his strength through the medium of ostracising Isis brides. On Wednesday night, it was David Davis’s turn to make his mark.  The former Brexit secretary appeared in noticeably slender form for an event at the Adam Smith Institute where he began proceedings by introducing himself as a ‘romantic radical’. Looking back on his university years at Warwick, Davis appeared to imply that he had an appeal to the Left as well

If May’s Brexit deal passes, then her troubles really begin

Brexit is breaking British politics. Both the traditional powers have been shipwrecked by this storm and show no signs of knowing how to repair their ruined timbers. This is the sort of thing everyone understands. If the Tories enjoy more support than Labour this is only because Labour is so very bad. It is not because Theresa May’s Government commands the confidence of the people. In any case, her party is slowly but surely devouring itself over Brexit. Again, everyone knows this.  But what if we’re approaching this from the wrong direction? Instead of observing how Brexit is destroying the Conservative party, perhaps we should wonder if, actually, Brexit has

How Steve Bannon tried – and failed – to crack Europe | 6 March 2019

When Steve Bannon was ousted from the White House as president Donald Trump’s chief strategist, the populist provocateur and former Hollywood executive was back running staff meetings at Breitbart less than 24 hours later. The rumpled, grizzled, grey-haired Bannon – who has a fondness for philosophy, history, political bloodsport and green camo jackets – is constantly on the move for a new project. In the United States, the big project was getting Trump elected and ensuring the New York billionaire never forgot about the part of America that loved him and the part that cringed at the mention of his name. But ever since he left the Trump administration – and

It’s time for Mark Carney to come clean about Brexit

What wonderful powers that Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, possesses. At a stroke, he has just succeeded in increasing the size of the economy by three per cent. Well, sort of. Only last November, the Bank of England claimed that a no-deal Brexit could cost the UK economy between 4.75 and 7.75 per cent of growth over a three year period, relative to what would happen under May’s deal. Yesterday, he changed his tune a little, telling the House of Lords economic affairs committee the effect of a no-deal Brexit on the UK economy in three years’ time would be between two and 3.5 per cent smaller

Why Brexiteers aren’t backing down

Geoffrey Cox is in Brussels attempting to achieve a breakthrough on the backstop. So far, the Attorney General’s efforts have not gone entirely to plan – with the word in Brussels that the first night of talks with Michel Barnier went badly. If Cox cannot win a significant concession on the backstop that will allow him to change his legal advice, there is little chance of Theresa May’s deal passing next week. However, even if he is successful in his aim there’s a chance it won’t be enough to win over Tory eurosceptics. As I write in the i paper, there is an increasing pessimism within the Cabinet that May

No dealers must dream on: A conversation with Ivan Rogers

Sir Ivan Rogers was in conversation at the Institute for Government. This is an edited transcript of his thoughts on why no-deal isn’t a sustainable outcome, whether there should be a public inquiry into Brexit – and why, when it comes to negotiations, the difficult bit is still to come: Ivan Rogers: Once you get into the trade deal and the economic deal and then associated security and other deals, this is actually the complex bit still to come. It’s much more complex and involves much more of Whitehall, and should involve Westminster a lot more than the exercise to date. I’m not disparaging the exercise to date, but that’s solely

Labour’s anti-Semitism crisis can never be solved under Corbyn | 5 March 2019

If racism is to succeed in corrupting institutions and countries it needs authorisation from the elite. The popular caricature of the racist as a white working-class man, or superstitious east european peasant, or shabby paranoid academic, shows not only class bias, but a lack of understanding that what transforms extremism from poisonous men muttering in corners to political movements with the power to ruin lives, is the authorisation given by leaders and intellectuals. A party can have racist members – as the Conservative party undoubtedly does. But because its leadership is not anti-Muslim their effect is constrained to personal abuse. I don’t mean to diminish it. If my experience is

A brief history of Chris Grayling’s failings

Chris Grayling is back in the news – and once again it is for all the wrong reasons. The transport secretary is facing calls to quit over his handling of the Brexit ferry debacle, which led to the Government having to shell out £33m of taxpayers’ money to Eurotunnel. Grayling said ‘however regrettable the Eurotunnel court action was, we had to take a decision to protect the interests of the country in the circumstances of a no deal Brexit’. So who is to blame? The whole Cabinet, according to Grayling, who insisted the decision that led to the payout was taken collectively. Of course, this is far from the first

New York Times goes easy on ‘Failing Grayling’

Chris Grayling has managed to take the government’s ‘Global Britain’ agenda up a gear this week with an appearance in the New York Times. The under fire Transport Secretary is the subject of a blistering editorial in the American paper (which has developed a penchant for negative UK stories these days) titled ‘How Does He Survive? The Curious Case of ‘Failing Grayling’. The paper claims Grayling has ‘bumbled his way from one government post to another’ starring ‘in a black comedy sideshow of his own’. Yet it’s fair to say that in one respect the paper has gone easy on him. In the print article, it cites that the Labour party has

Theresa May’s bung shows she still doesn’t understand Brexit

When will politicians learn they can’t just buy off voters? You think they would have twigged this during the EU referendum campaign when the Remain camp’s Project Fear utterly failed to sway the electorate’s feelings about the EU. Every household will be £4,300 worse off, the Treasury claimed, which a) wasn’t true and b) looked to many voters like a cynical bung designed to wean them off their Euroscepticism. Such chattering-class cluelessness was on full display in the aftermath of the referendum too. How could people in regions that have received oodles of EU cash — parts of Wales, the old industrial north of England — turn against the EU,

Are Brexiteer MPs really softening their opposition to May’s deal?

Are Brexiteer MPs about to row in behind May’s deal? This is the question that has dominated the weekend’s papers with speculation rising that the threat of a delay to Brexit – or no Brexit – means the European Research Group (ERG) are ready to soften their red lines. Sir Graham Brady – chair of the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers – has used an op-ed in the Mail on Sunday to say that he is now ready to back the Prime Minister’s deal – so long as the ‘right compromise is offered’. The Sunday Times splashes ‘Brexiteers offer peace terms to May’ with news of three tests the ERG will

10 days to save Brexit

MPs have 10 days to pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal or calamity strikes, I say in The Sun this morning. May’s deal is far from perfect. But what will happen if it doesn’t pass is truly appalling. If May’s deal hasn’t won a Commons vote by March 12th, the Commons will vote on whether to proceed with no deal. The parliamentary arithmetic is such that no deal will almost certainly be defeated. The next day, parliament will then vote on whether to request an extension from the EU. This vote will almost certainly pass. At this point, the United Kingdom would be in the weakest position it has ever been

‘Brexit shows democracy doesn’t work’: An interview with Titania McGrath

Titania McGrath, 24, is a radical intersectionalist vegan activist, feminist slam poet and the author of Woke: a Guide to Social Justice. She won’t meet me in person for security reasons – she fears doxxing – or send me a photograph of her face. Rather, she consents to an interview by email from her gîte in the Buis-les-Baronnies district of France, where she is “working on a new anthology of slam poetry which will end the patriarchy” in the nude. This is from her poem Cultural Appropriation: Plunderbeast of history. My ancestors scream in your hollow wigwam, Ghostrolling in the ectoplasm of your hate. I staunch the flow of simpering

The myth of the ‘millennial’ Corbyn project

The myth at the heart of the ‘Corbyn project’ is that it is a grassroots movement of enthusiastic young people. This group, so the theory goes, is disgusted by free markets and longs for industries to be nationalised and collectives of workers to seize control of the means of production. Books have even been written about how the ‘young’ have ‘created a new socialism.’ But if this is true, why does a poll today reveal that support for the newly-formed centrist Independent Group predominantly come from young people? Forty-seven per cent of 18-24 year olds approve of the creation of TIG, with just 14 per cent disapproving of it. This is strange behaviour from an

What does Putin really make of Britain’s Brexit mess?

When it comes to Brexit, Britain’s friends, neighbours, trade partners and even antagonists are generally united in one thing: wondering what on earth is going on. In Russia, there is a particular cocktail of satisfaction and bewilderment. The satisfaction is predictable. From the Kremlin’s point of view, the whole Brexit extravaganza is a gift, regardless of the eventual outcome. Putin’s strategy is essentially to divide, distract and demoralise the West, so that either we are sufficiently worn down to strike a deal that grants Russia the status he craves – essentially as hegemon of Eurasia and a fixture in any global negotiations – or else we are so fragmented, feuding

George Eustice resigns – will more Leave-voting ministers follow?

When the week began, there was speculation that a group of ministers would resign over Theresa May’s Brexit stance. The Prime Minister had been warned that up to 22 members of government could quit unless she promised the chance for MPs to extend Article 50 if no deal looks likely. In the end, May blinked and paved the way for such a vote if her deal is rejected in two weeks’ time. However, that decision has led to a government resignation that few were expecting. This afternoon George Eustice resigned as Defra minister over May’s promise to allow MPs a vote on delaying Brexit if her deal is rejected. In

Theresa May can dare to dream that her Brexit deal might pass

Can the Prime Minister dare to dream that her Brexit deal will pass – perhaps as soon as next week? It is striking how Brexiters from the ERG group are lining up to tell me how reasonable they are trying to be. After well over a hundred Tory MPs failed to vote for Yvette Cooper’s amendment last night, which simply captured the PM’s u-turn pledge to allow MPs to delay Brexit, one senior Tory texted me to insist this was “more cock up than conspiracy”. He said: “Bit of a mess. Nobody expected Cooper to move the amendment. Letwin had said they wouldn’t. People had left the chamber. Others thought

A pincer movement is closing around Jeremy Corbyn

Chaos theory’s assertion that tiny changes can have dramatic effects is being vindicated with a vengeance in Westminster. If not quite as paltry as a butterfly flapping its wing in the Amazonian rain forest, the creation of the Independent Group seemed a small event. Eight Labour and three Tory MPs joined. Eleven in total. Just 11: despite all the provocations of Brexit and Corbyn. Is that it? I thought when the breakaway began, and filed the groupuscule away under “lost causes”. As it has turned out, the small difference has made all the difference. Last night the Labour party removed the whip from Chris Williamson, a supporter of the Maduro

The Independent Group is already changing politics for the better

Most people at Westminster are betting against the Tiggers. Most people, if forced to guess, would predict that the Independent Group won’t become a new political party that wins scores of seats in the Commons. We can all recite the reasons: no membership, no machine, no leader, no policy platform, the electoral system… But maybe that doesn’t matter. Because there are more ways to change things than winning seats. Just ask Ukip – if you can find it these days. Ukip only ever won one seat in the Commons, and in truth it was Douglas Carswell not the party who delivered it. But Ukip still changed history: without it, David Cameron would