Uk politics

Friday

Peter Hoskin

Is it the leadership or nothing for David Miliband?

A cracking post from Paul Waugh on the prospect of shadow cabinet elections for Labour.  For those who can't remember the last time they took place (14 years ago), they're the annual elections which Labour MPs hold, when in Opposition, to help determine who gets to sit on the front bench.  The party leader and deputy are immune from the process, but everyone else is subject to the whims, fancies and dispositions of all those backbenchers. In which case, Paul's observation about David Miliband is worth noting down: "Word is that David Miliband and Douglas Alexander would do disastrously, given their reputation for aloofness and failure to gladhand in the Tea Room.

Mark Bathgate

Brown’s next worry: the Gilt markets

With inflation continuing to "surprise" on the upside, how long can the Bank of England keep justifying printing money? Now we learn that the Bank of England had printed £193.5 billion to finance government spending by the end of last week. So we are only four weeks to the next MPC meeting – but there is only £6.5 billion of new money left for them to pump out before they hit their £200 billion limit. Then we enter the scary territory I outlined in an earlier post.  And Brown is still left needing around £15 billion of Gilt sales a month to finance his fiscal debauchery. The Gilt market was fine while Brown's appointee's to the MPC were willing to keep the printing presses rolling to the tune of £1 billion a day through the summer.

Peter Hoskin

Brown’s only strength is the weakness of his rivals

So who got what? Today's Times has a great summary of the concessions and promises that Brown has had to make to keep his Cabinet colleagues on side, including: "In a series of negotiations: — Harriet Harman demanded and received a promise to have more day-to-day control over the election campaign. Labour’s deputy leader also demanded to be treated with more respect from Mr Brown’s staff. — Jack Straw told Mr Brown that he must not rely solely on a “core vote” strategy aimed at shoring up Labour’s heartland support. — Alistair Darling urged the Prime Minister to be more honest about the cuts in public spending needed to pay off Britain’s record deficit.

Daniel Korski

In preparing for war, the Tories differ from Labour in one respect – they would be prepared

In today's Times, and on the occasion of George Osborne and William Hague's visit to Helmand, the Tories are publishing proposals for how to improve the Government's approach to post-conflict operations. Their central idea: to create a stabilisation force in the military, complete with the necessary expertise, training and so on to win the peace after combat. If it was not already abundantly clear, the Iraq Inquiry has shown how ill-prepared the British state – civil service, military and government – was for post-combat reconstruction. Though much has changed since the Iraq War – e.g.

Thursday

David Blackburn

The House of Lords at its exceptional best

Archbishop George Carey has his detractors, but his article in the Times is a candid explanation of the ills that unfettered immigration is causing this country. The tone is so frank it shocks; the title reads: ‘Migration threatens the DNA of the nation’. Carey, of course, is not inciting anything as palpably evil as eugenics or as unworkable as uniformity between different ethnic and regional groups; he refers merely to the essence of Britain’s political, religious and social institutions. Society is determined by the health of its institutions, and ours have disintegrated through apathy. Society is broken, though not in the manner that is often assumed.

Fraser Nelson

What’s it all about, Dave?

This morning, I drove past one of the Cameron adverts - “I’ll cut the deficit, not the NHS” - and that Bacacharch & David song came into my head: "What’s it all about, Alfie?" It’s been in my head, in fact, ever since his Oxford speech last weekend. Just what is the Big Idea? We seek to answer the question in this week’s magazine with four pieces. James Forsyth says that any hunt for Cameron’s ideology will be in vain, because he doesn’t really have one. He doesn’t like –isms and there will never be a Cameronism. David Selbourne, one of Britain’s leading political philosophers, has written a scathing piece. (“I’m afraid this is merited” he said in the email, when his sent his piece).

James Forsyth

The plot’s gunpowder is extinguished

The atmosphere is flat in Westminster today. The plot finally fizzled out this morning but not before having highlighted how little support in the Cabinet Brown has. It was telling that it was Shaun Woodward, not anyone more high profile, who turned up on the Today Programme to defend the PM. Plots that wound but do not kill Brown are perfect for the Tories. They make the voters see Labour as divided and add to the mood that it is time for a change. This one also had the benefit of being ideally timed from a Tory perspective, obscuring a week which had seen Cameron make a rare blunder. YouGov’s latest poll does show the Tories on course for a majority, no small achievement considering the base they are starting from.

Peter Hoskin

Compare and contrast | 7 January 2010

After June's rebellion, it's thought that Brown made a promise to his Cabinet colleagues: "...that cabinet ministers such as Alistair Darling will not again find themselves briefed against. There was deep anger in cabinet when Darling found himself being referred to in the past tense by Brown earlier in the week." But in today's Guardian: "The Downing Street spin machine knew something bad was afoot on Tuesday, but did not know precisely what was coming. So like any good media management operation, they tried to flush out enemies by briefing that Tessa Jowell, the Cabinet Office minister, was set to quit." If I were Jowell - and if that's what went on - then it's the kind of thing I'd resign over.  But I'm not, and I suspect she won't.

Peter Hoskin

Brown has survived, for the moment

Whatever took place yesterday – and there was certainly more to this plot than met the eye – the immediate danger to Gordon Brown seems to have fizzled out this morning.  Here's what David Miliband has just told the cameras: "No member of the government was involved in the letter - we are all determined to win the election under Gordon's leadership." Which is a good deal less ambiguous than the message he put out yesterday.   Now, there are two ways of looking at all this.  First, that there's enough Cabinet disatisfaction with Brown that another coup attempt has to be on the cards; that the revelations we've heard since last night mean that the plot – and not just the story – has legs.

James Forsyth

Brown weakened by friend who became foe

Intriguing post from Iain Martin, who is well sourced in the Darling camp, about what might have been said between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor yesterday: “I’ve heard from two Labour sources now that the conversation was very difficult and that Darling raised the possibility of Brown going, but the PM resisted. It would be taking it too far, says a well-placed MP, to say that the mild-mannered Darling told his old friend turned foe to call it a day. He said it was more that Darling floated the possibility of a swift departure for the sake of the party.” Whatever was said between the two men yesterday, the weakening of Brown’s position is significant for Labour’s economic strategy.

Peter Hoskin

So what now for Brown?

Well done, Gordon.  You seem to have survived another attempted coup.  And not just any old coup, either.  This one may have been particularly badly organised and executed, but it was also – probably – the last one you'll face between now and the election; the last one you'll ever face in your political career.  If yesterday came with a sense of "now or never," then the tea leaves now read "never".  Bravo. But, hang on.  This is hardly good news for our PM.  His authority is, pretty obviously, diminished.  If Hoon and Hewitt didn't manage to achieve that by themselves, then the ambiguous support from his Cabinet colleagues did – especially David Miliband.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

This isn’t over until David Miliband offers clear support to Brown

David Miliband has learned a lot since last June. Then, he was bounced by Peter Mandelson into declaring his support for Brown within an hour or so of James Purnell’s resignation. Today, he waited hours to release a statement and then when he did it could hardly have been less supportive. Tonight when challenged by TV crews outside his home, he said with a straight face that his position is ‘entirely clear’ when it is anything but. Until he comes out unequivocally for Brown this ain’t over. The other news of the night is Eric Joyce’s claim that two Cabinet ministers had told Hoon and Hewitt they would resign and back their call for a secret ballot of the PLP.

James Forsyth

David Miliband barely offers Brown support

On a day where statements of support for the Prime Minister from key Cabinet colleagues have been notable for how lukewarm they ware, David Miliband’s takes the biscuit: It is hard to see how this could be a weaker statement of support. There is no word of praise for Brown, no claim that he is best man for the job, just a declaration that he backs Labour’s re-election. If I was one of Brown’s henchmen, I would feel far from reassured by it.

Fraser Nelson

Losing the plot | 6 January 2010

There are German operas that lasted longer than today's Hoon-Hewitt plot. Launched at 12.45pm, given legs by the fact that ministers hate Brown too much to interrupt their lunches for him. But dead by 6pm due to Mandelson texting Nick Robinson. (Again, you can't fault Mandy for drama). You feel the Tories should take Labour mps on a Regicide for Beginners away-day and teach them the basics. You need five or six people to declare hour-by-hour. You need basic co-ordination. You need timing (i.e. not a week when cameron is scoring so many own goals and the Tory lead is narrowing). Basic stuff. This is, in what is a fairly hotly-contested category, the most inept Labour plot yet attempted. And I'm glad. Finishing Brown is a joy that should be left to the British electorate in May.

Lloyd Evans

An intriguing PMQs – overshadowed by events

After the hubbub about Hewitt ‘n’ Hoon’s plot to unseat Gordon Brown, PMQs is perhaps a distant memory. It’s certainly made my review a little later than usual. But better late than never, as today’s clash was a bloody and intriguing contest with both party leaders on combative form. Cameron seemed unusually relaxed, glib and self-confident. Perhaps he’d been tipped off about the plot. Or perhaps he’d been thrilled by the sight of his beautifully groomed coiffure in the bathroom mirror this morning. If he spent as much time on his manifesto as he did on his hair there’d be no talk of a hung parliament. But this didn’t seem to bother him today and he laid happily into the Prime Minister over the budget deficit.

James Forsyth

What we have learnt today

Three things stand out to me from today. First of all there is little Cabinet love for Brown: there was no stampede of Ministers rushing out to offer their support to him and several have yet to say anything. Also many of the statements of support contained precious little enthusiasm for Brown. The second thing is that you can't bring down a Labour leader without support from the bulk of the Parliamentary party. This plot is simply too narrowly constructed. Finally, the Tory reaction has been intriguing. On the one hand they are delighted. They know that the electorate hates divided parties. They are also aware that it covers up a bad week for them. But on the other hand, they get very jumpy at the thought that the plot might succeed.

Peter Hoskin

What are Hoon and Hewitt hoping to achieve?

The secret ballot story is still ongoing – so it's a little early to be drawing conclusions just yet.  But, for now, it's worth thinking about what H&H are hoping to achieve by all this.  If it's true that they haven't discussed their plans with Cabinet ministers, then why are they sticking their heads above the parapet?  It's not as though they're the most widely popular members of the Labour backbenches, who could manage to influence huge swathes of the PLP.  Without a mass of pre-existing support, they surely can't have much hope of getting the ballot they've called for. Which just throws up more questions.

James Forsyth

Mandelson’s statement scarcely endorses Brown

Peter Mandelson's much-awaited statement does not seem particularly full-throated in its support of the Prime Minister. 'No one should over-react to this initiative. It is not led by members of the government. No one has resigned from the government. The prime minister continues to have the support of his colleagues and we should carry on government business as usual.' There is no praise for Brown and it almost reads as if someone did resign we would be into a totally different ball game.

Peter Hoskin

Mandelson intervenes

Is this the endorsement that Brown was looking for?  Sky and the BBC report that the Business Secretary is putting out the message that the PM has the support of his Cabinet colleagues. Meanwhile, the good folk at Comment Central are running a Cabinet Watch, tracking which members of the Cabinet have come out in support of Brown.  Only three, so far - although they haven't added Mandelson yet (or Ed Balls, who is currently on Sky talking about "getting on with the job").  All eyes on Darling, Johnson, Harman and Miliband now.

Fraser Nelson

What does the Cabinet silence mean?

It's only been two hours, so how much can we read in to the silence from most of the Cabinet over the Hoon-Hewitt rallying cry? I didn't think Brown was in that much trouble, until I heard Margaret Beckett come on Five Live to defend him. Is that the best his defence operation can do? Beckett, Andy Burnham, John Mann, Tony Lloyd? In fairness, I wouldn't break my lunch to say something nice about Brown either - but his team at No.10 exists to defend him against his many Labour enemies. You can bet that, right now, there are scores of furious messages on Darling's and Mandelson's mobiles. Darling is, of course, close to Hoon, and Mandelson has been annoyed for weeks. Might he be about to explode? I hear he is due on television later.