Uk politics

Wednesday

James Forsyth

The plot is on life support

The Hoon and Hewitt attempt to force a secret ballot on Brown's leadership is not off to the best of starts. If it is not dead on arrival it is certainly on the critical list. Even those who think Labour would be better off without Brown are unimpressed by this attempt. One texted me just now saying 'outcome same as previous crap attempts: no change at top but shave 5% in polls.' Certainly, the timing seems poor. Trying to compete with the snow is not the best idea nor is launching this campaign at a time when Labour had managed to score some points against the Tories.

James Forsyth

A narrowly constructed plot

Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt's letter calling for a secret ballot on the Labour leadership has wiped out a decent performance by Gordon Brown at PMQs and will revive stories about Labour division and Brown's unpopularity. It is a massive bonus for the Tories in what had been a disappointing week for them up to now. Hewitt is definitely a Blairite but Hoon is one of those who crossed over to the Brown side while Blair was still PM. However he is a disappointed man, he hoped for the Europe job that Baroness Ashton got to everyone's surprise. If Brown is to be ousted, though, I doubt it will be by these two: this is too narrowly constructed a plot.

Peter Hoskin

Is there a Cabinet minister?

There are rumblings in Westminster that a Cabinet minister is preparing to join Hoon and Hewitt in calling for a secret ballot on Brown's leadership.  H&H are claiming, quite laughably, that this whole process could actually strengthen Brown's position.  But ministerial involvment would clarify, beyond doubt, that this is actually a rebellion designed to weaken Brown.  After all, this is hardly the kind of thing which falls under the banner of collective responsilbity... The question now is: who, if anyone?  Obviously, the bigger the name, the more destabilising it would be.  Indeed, you feel that a Big Name might be required to give this sufficient momentum.  Could it be Tessa Jowell?*  Or might it be someone closer to the PM?

Peter Hoskin

Full Hoon and Hewitt letter

Courtesy of Guido: Dear Colleague, As we move towards a General Election it remains the case that the Parliamentary Labour Party is deeply divided over the question of the leadership. Many colleagues have expressed their frustration at the way in which this question is affecting our political performance. We have therefore come to the conclusion that the only way to resolve this issue would be to allow every member to express their view in a secret ballot. This could be done quickly and with minimum disruption to the work of MPs and the Government. Whatever the outcome the whole of the party could then go forward, knowing that this matter had been sorted out once and for all. Strong supporters of the Prime Minister should have no difficulty in backing this approach.

Peter Hoskin

Breaking: Hoon and Hewitt call for secret ballot on Brown’s leadership

So says Nick Robinson.  More soon. UPDATE: The Standard has a copy of the letter which Hoon and Hewiit have sent out to Labour MPs.  Here's a key extract from the article: "Mr Hoon and Ms Hewitt warned: 'There is a risk otherwise that the persistent background briefing and grumbling could continue up to and possibly through the election campaign, affecting our ability to concentrate all of our energies on getting our real message across.' Mr Hoon and Ms Hewitt added: 'In what will inevitably be a difficult and demanding election campaign, we must have a determined and united parliamentary party. 'It is our job to lead the fight againstour political opponents. We can only do that if we resolve these distractions. We hope that you will support this proposal.

Peter Hoskin

PMQs live blog | 6 January 2010

Stay tuned for live coverage of PMQs from 1200. 1159: Should be kicking off soon.  You can watch proceedings live here. 1202: And here we go.  Brown starts with the usual condolences for fallen British servicemen - and adds a tribute for the late Labour MP, David Taylor. 1204: Brian Donohoe asks for an update on the attempted terrorist attack on Christmas Day.  Brown lists new security measures, and says that he's looking to better coordinate intelligence efforts. 1206: Cameron now.  He adds condolences for British servicemen and David Taylor. 1207: The Tory leader starts with our debt problem.  He lists international organisations - the OECD etc. - which have warned about Britain's debt.

James Forsyth

Mandelson is tiring of his ‘toy’

Patrick Wintour’s piece on Peter Mandelson in today’s Guardian is the most thorough explanation that we’ve had yet of Mandelson’s ‘Garbo-esque silence’ since the PBR. Mandelson was clearly intensely frustrated and disillusioned by the PBR, and the presentation of it, backing away from his smart cuts strategy and instead returning to the crude investment versus cuts dividing line. One also gets the impression that Mandelson was irritated by Brown’s fundamental failings as a politician. Wintour writes that those who spoke to Mandleson before Christmas “heard a man frustrated by the prime minister's lack of focus, decision-making capacity, and strategic guile.

David Blackburn

Labour’s imminent bloodbath

The latest instalment of the Labour leadership saga is available at a newsagent near you. Writing in the Independent, John Rentoul argues that Labour must avoid the ‘Oyster Card Error’. That is, ‘the gate beeps and the sign says, “Seek Assistance”. But do they? No, they try again.’ Loyal as ever, Rentoul believes that the party can only be renewed by the heir to Blair, David Miliband; Gordon Brown’s politics must be consigned to the footnotes of history, and Amen to that. However, whilst defeat at the polls will remove Brown it may not break his dedicated parliamentary support.

Tuesday

David Blackburn

The Tories are frustrating, but Labour is unelectable

Ok, Coffee House has given the Tories short-shrift in recent weeks, but this is a reaction born of frustration. The election should be a walkover. At their best, the Tories have the radical policies, and to a certain extent the team, to rescue Britain from its current Labour-inflicted quandary. Yet the party remains tentative, fearful of its own shadow. It should not be. Labour deserves to lose, and not only in retribution for its record: the governing party has embarked on an open internecine war and is completely unelectable in consequence.

Peter Hoskin

Brown and out?

Whether anything comes of it is a different matter altogether, but this insight from the Standard's Joe Murphy deserves pulling out: "A senior minister is said to be close to quitting in a move to destabilise Mr Brown, the Standard has been told. There is speculation among MPs that a big beast such as Chancellor Alistair Darling, Lord Mandelson or Justice Secretary Jack Straw might be willing to tell Mr Brown to go if the party falls into fresh turmoil." Paul Waugh and Channel 4's Gary Gibbon have more on the story, here and here.  As I pointed out at the weekend, it looks as though the rumblings about Brown's leadership are returning – and at the worst possible time for our PM.

Peter Hoskin

Is this Labour’s election slogan?

I wouldn't be surprised if this Gordon Brown snippet gets deployed ad nauseam between now and the next election: "[Brown] described Labour as the party of 'prosperity not austerity'" If so, it's worth noting that it's a phrase that Ed Miliband used in several speeches last year (e.g. here, here and here).  But, whoever its author, it's hard to imagine it working for a governing party which has presided over one of the most spectacular busts in our history.

James Forsyth

Will CCHQ impose an all women shortlist in East Surrey?

East Surrey will be the first seat where Tory central office gets to impose a shortlist of three candidates on a local association. Peter Ainsworth, its MP, has today announced that he is stepping down and because he has waited until the New Year to make this announcement CCHQ’s emergency candidate selection rules now apply. The first thing to watch for is whether the Tories go for an all women shortlist. When Cameron said in October that the party would have some “all-women shortlists to help us boost the number of Conservative women MPs” there was a furious reaction from some sections of the grassroots. There was even talk of setting up a legal fighting fund to challenge the decision.

David Blackburn

War of attrition may prove to be Labour’s downfall

The party that nearly bankrupted Britain has bankrupt itself. The Times reports that, once again, Labour’s coffers are bare and that the party is technically insolvent. David Blunkett, chairman of Labour’s election development board, is unequivocal that Labour cannot withstand an interminable election campaign, which is precisely why the stinking rich Tories have opened one. The money men have backed the Tories, which in itself is significant as money invariably gravitates to the coming power and vice versa. Historians of New Labour’s spectacular demise will argue that it was not the recession but the cash for peerages scandal that demolished the party’s electoral supremacy, forcing it back into the arms of the unions.

Peter Hoskin

Clegg keeps them guessing

Yesterday was all Labour, Tories, Labour, Tories.  So, today, enter the Lib Dems.  Nick Clegg has an article in this morning's Times which, to be fair, is actually quite noteworthy.  His main point?  That the Lib Dems are a party in their own right, and will not be engaging in "under-the-counter deals" with the Big Two: "This year’s general election is likely to be the most open and unpredictable in a generation. So you have a right to know where we stand. I can promise voters wondering whether to put an “X” against the Liberal Democrats that there are no backroom deals or under-the-counter “understandings” with either of the other two parties." You can see why Clegg is broadcasting this message.

Monday

James Forsyth

The opening day of the long election campaign is a score draw in terms of media coverage but the big development is that Labour has lost one of its main tax dividing lines

During an election campaign, the press like to obsess about who won the day. Up until 3pm, the consensus was that the Tories had. The media was pointing out just how absurd it was for Labour to criticise another party for having black holes in its fiscal plans. But then came David Cameron’s marriage gaffe which has evened up the coverage on the evening news broadcasts with the Six o’clock news going particularly hard on the issue. Cameron’s credibility is central to the Tory campaign so anything that depletes that is bad news for them. But in the long term, I think the most significant development today is one that is not getting much coverage on the TV news: Darling’s refusal to commit to not raising VAT.

Fraser Nelson

Is Cameron cowering in the face of Labour attacks?

Say what you like about the Cameron project, but at least they are strongly committed to marriage. Aren’t they? Well, it seems, not now. I always suspected that the wonderful strength of Cameron’s rhetoric on marriage was not really matched by his policy – a rather paltry tax break. Now, it seems not even that is certain. "It's something within a parliament I would definitely hope to do," he said today. “We're not able to give people absolute certainty on everything.” Well not on everything – but what about on the few hard pledges that have actually been made? Or is Cameron really cowering in the face of Labour attacks that they would propose tax cuts for “the few” - a category which includes married couples?

James Forsyth

Why the Tories started with health

The Tories today rolled out the first section of their manifesto this morning, the chapter on health. The reason the Tories started with their plans for the NHS, as they did when setting out their priorities for government last autumn, is quite simple: the leadership thinks that every time Cameron talks about health the party goes up in the polls. Certainly, one of the achievements of Cameron’s leadership has been to cancel out Labour’s traditional advantage on the question of who is most trusted on the NHS; Labour’s lead on this question has been a statistically insignificant one percent in the last two polls on the subject according to Anthony Wells of the indispensable UK Polling Report.

James Forsyth

The Tories accuse Labour of telling “lies”

The Toryies are busy rebutting Labour’s claim that there is a £34bn black hole in their tax and spending plans. The most striking thing is how strong the language Conservative sources are using is, Labour's document was described to me as ‘a “dodgy dossier” full of lies’. It is quite remarkable that Labour has the gall to criticise the other side for unfunded spending pledges and the headline Tory objections are fair enough. The document says the Tories would let married couples transfer their tax allowances, when they haven’t committed to that. It also claims that the Tories are pledged to abolishing the 50p rate before the end of the parliament which the Tories are not.

David Blackburn

Two new Tory health policies

Localism and results-based healthcare are central to the Tories’ NHS reform measures. They plan to arrest the widening gap between the life expectancy of rich and poor by introducing a Health Premium, a new policy, to direct funds to the poorest communities. The second new initiative is the creation of ‘maternity networks’, which will link hospitals, doctors, charities, volunteers and consultants, replacing top-down management with co-operation in a bid to widen expertis, improve services and lower costs. This reflects the belief that local solutions can have national benefits and concurs with the broader aspects of Tory policy regarding the state and welfare provision.

James Forsyth

The shape of things to come | 4 January 2010

Today is a taste of how politics is going to be until the election: competing Labour and Tory events, claim and counter claim. Alistair Darling kicked off proceedings with an event setting out the supposed £34 billion black hole in the Tory’s plans for the public finances. This took some chutzpah considering how vague Labour’s own spending plans are, there are currently no departmental budgets, and how big the balck hole in Labour’s plans is, remember how Brown implied on Marr yesterday that tax rises on the rich, the National Insurance hike and lower than expected unemployment would be able to take most of the strain of halving the £178bn deficit. Judging from the questions at the Darling event, the press aren’t buying Labour’s line.