Uk politics

Wednesday

Sebastian Payne

Good news for the government: Unemployment falls again

More positive economic news this morning — the unemployment rate has fallen. In the last three months, unemployment has taken a surprising drop to 7.4 per cent, compared to 7.6 per cent for the three months before. As the chart below shows, the unemployment rate is now lower than at any time since the general election, and the lowest since April 2009: The number of people claiming Jobseeekers’ Allowance is also down by 36,700 while average pay also rose by a slender 0.8 per cent compared to the previous year (still below the rate of inflation). Despite this, the figures are good news for the government.

Isabel Hardman

Greg Barker interview: ‘Green crap’ was a curmudgeonly thing to say

You might be forgiven for thinking that the Conservative party has spent the past month or so taking all the green rubbish - or 'crap' as one source close to the Prime Minister was quoted as saying - out and forgetting it ever loved environmentalism. But visiting Energy and Climate Change Minister Greg Barker's office is a reminder that the party hasn't quite purged its green, climate-change conscious past. He still has a green Union Jack cushion on one chair, and another with 'Save the Planet' embroidered on the case. There's still a picture of the Prime Minister with a husky on a side table. Clearly Barker still thinks that you can vote blue and go green, even after the past month.

Isabel Hardman

Faster curbs on ‘benefit tourism’ are easy-peasy compared with Cameron’s real EU task

The Prime Minister's announcement today that he is fast-tracking his curbs on 'benefit tourism' was designed to reassure worried MPs that the government really is moving as fast as it can to do anything it can ahead of the lifting of transitional controls on Bulgarian and Romanian migrants. When these curbs, which mean all EU jobseekers will have to wait for three months before they can apply for out-of-work benefits, were first briefed a few weeks ago, Downing Street suggested that they would not be ready for the 1 January deadline. Better to brief a later date and then speed things up, as the Prime Minister has today. But while the announcement is well-covered in today's press, it is The Sun's striking front page that cuts to the chase on this issue.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Ukip and Tories scrap over their squeeze message

One thing that has been abundantly clear about the Tory plan for Ukip is that it will involve a long, slow 'squeeze message' (more on that here) that has already been deployed: the vote Ukip, get Miliband line. Naturally, Ukip is keen to counter that and argue that in fact this early squeeze message to encourage voters to think strategically is just wrong. To that end, party donor Alan Bown has taken out a full-page advertisement in the Telegraph today that argues 'UKIP stand poised for a major breakthrough in 2015, within reach of victory in many seats across the country'. He outlines the results of four polls: in the marginal seats of Crewe & Nantwich and Great Yarmouth, and the safe seats of Folkestone & Hythe and Bognor Regis and Littlehampton.

Isabel Hardman

Today’s aviation fuss changes nothing about the 2015 election

If you were hoping for great drama over the Davies Commission's interim report, you've got a while longer. As Patrick McLoughlin made clear in the Commons today, you're unlikely to hear anything more than ministers repeatedly arguing that something must be done about Britain's aviation capacity. Just not anything in particular this side of the 2015 general election. The Transport Secretary said: 'I know that colleagues on both sides of the House will have their views on the content of the commission's interim report, and in particular on the choices made in shortlisting these options. My principal concern as Secretary of State for Transport is to protect the integrity and independence of the commission process through to the final report, which we expect to be delivered by summer 2015.

Sebastian Payne

CofE takes aim at payday lenders. But what about the banks?

Does Christmas have to start with a payday loan? No, according to the Church of England. The Church has unveiled its annual advertising campaign this morning, posing this very question to the residents of Manchester. As usual, the CofE is worried Britons are becoming ignorant about the origins of Christmas. As one of the adverts (pictured above) from Christmas starts with Christ shows, the aim is to remind Britain of the religious nature of the festive season as well as urging people not to go into debt to finance Christmas. But are the payday loan companies the only companies the Church should be worried about? In a recent Barometer column, we compared the cost of borrowing of £200 from Wonga to the high street banks.

Isabel Hardman

Airports Commission focuses on new runways at Heathrow and Gatwick

In the past few minutes, the Airports Commission has published its interim report. It's the first big opportunity for there to be a political row over aviation capacity since the government kicked the issue into the long grass, and Sir Howard Davies' shortlist in this interim report certainly provides some opportunities for a row. The shortlist as it stands does not include Boris Johnson's favoured Estuary Airport, instead favouring new runways at Heathrow and Gatwick. The Commission will now consider a 3,000 metre runway south of the existing runway at Gatwick, and two different runways at Heathrow: a 3,500 metre runway to the northwest of the airport, and a 6,000 metre runway to the west which could be run as two separate runways.

Monday

Sebastian Payne

Briefing: The Davies Airport Commission

What’s happening? Tomorrow, former CBI economist Howard Davies will release an interim report on the options for expanding Britain’s airport capacity. Some of the possibilities Davies has been considering include developing the regional airports (possibly with a High Speed rail element), building a new giant hub airport in the Thames Estuary, expanding capacity at Gatwick or Stansted Airports, or building a new runway at Heathrow. What will Davies say tomorrow?

The Spectator

Should Gatwick Airport have a second runway?

What’s the future for British airports? Earlier this month, The Spectator hosted a lunchtime discussion sponsored by Gatwick Airport with MPs and policymakers who had come to test its thesis: that expanding London’s second airport is the most sensible way forward, as it would boost competition while causing a fraction of the noise pollution. The debate was chaired by Andrew Neil. Also present were Fraser Nelson, editor of The Spectator, political editor James Forsyth, client services director Melissa McAdden, Kwasi Kwarteng MP and the Institute of Directors' Simon Walker. Andrew Neil opened the discussion by asking Stewart Wingate if he expected the Davies report was moving in the direction of a third runway at Heathrow.

Isabel Hardman

The Labour split on planning and housebuilding

Ed Miliband's housebuilding announcement today is rather a re-heated announcement of his conference pledges on housing. Eric Pickles has already set out on Coffee House his belief that these new ideas are 'more of the same high-tax and top-down policies that led to their housing boom and bust'. The announcement certainly allows for a bit of a knockabout between the two parties, neither of which has much to boast about when it comes to housing, but there's one point that's worth noting about the Labour leader's announcement today.

Isabel Hardman

Theresa May: We need to restrict free movement rights

Ministers don't comment on leaked reports, as Theresa May said on the Today programme this morning, but they can jolly well make clear what they think of them, especially if those leaked reports are quite helpful to calming Conservative backbench grumbles. The Home Secretary didn't distance herself from the leak in the Sunday Times that she wants a 75,000 cap on the number of EU migrants per year, and repeated David Cameron's call for reform of freedom of movement, saying: 'What the Prime Minister has said and what I said is that in looking at reform of the EU we need to look at this whole question of the arrangements of new countries that come in, so-called accession countries.

Sunday

Isabel Hardman

Nadhim Zahawi’s child benefit call is rare outburst from No10 policy board

Number 10 was quick to pour cold water on Nadhim Zahawi's suggestion in the Mail on Sunday that child-related welfare benefits should be restricted to two children per family (for new births only), with a source saying that 'this is not government policy and is not supported by the Prime Minister'. But aside from whether this is a good policy or not, Zahawi's intervention is interesting as it marks a significant departure from the way the Number 10 policy board, of which he is a member, works. Zahawi has only recently joined, but his colleagues on the board have been instructed to be entirely discreet about their work.

Sebastian Payne

Despite the improving economy, George Osborne is still unpopular

Now that the economy is recovering and George Osborne has overtaken Ed Balls in the polls for having the best economic policies, he may be forgiven for wondering if wider rehabilitation is next. The Chancellor's allies have long seen him as the man who will succeed David Cameron, perhaps in 2018, and imagine that his problem — looking too young — will remedy itself and that his personal popularity will recover along with the economy. Today's polls suggest this isn't happening - at least, not yet. While the Chancellor's professional reputation is recovering from the omnishambolic 2012 budget his personal reputation is still pretty low.

Friday

James Forsyth

If we don’t want prisoners to have the vote, then we’re going to have to leave the European Court of Human Rights

David Cameron’s declaration that prisoners "damn well shouldn't" have the right to vote is a reminder that this issue hasn’t gone away. Cameron was emphatic that the final verdict on this question should rest with the British parliament not the European Court of Human Rights. But this is not the current situation as Cameron admitted with his line that “we need to clip [the court’s] wings". But it is hard to see how Cameron can do that while keeping Britain under the jurisdiction of the court. The attempt to reform the court that Ken Clarke launched as Justice Secretary didn’t get very far. So, it is hard to see what other option there is beyond removing Britain from its jurisdiction.

Isabel Hardman

What is the big Ukip plan?

Today's announcement that migrants cannot claim benefits if their English is so bad that they are unemployable looks suspiciously like another attempt by ministers to reassure fears about the end of those transitional controls on Bulgarian and Romanian migrants. And that is, in turn, an attempt to reassure Tory MPs that the government has done everything it can to keep Ukip at bay. But what is the Tory plan for Ukip? It needs to work out how to fight Nigel Farage's party in the European elections, how to pre-brief the European elections (presumably by talking up Ukip's chances so much that any result looks like a disappointment), and how to stop the inevitable post-European elections panic.

Thursday

Alex Massie

The Dumbest Dog in the World

That's Duggy Dug, the latest champion of the campaign for Scottish independence. For some reason Brian Cox - the actor, not the physics professor - has decided to put his voice to this cringetastic calamity. Duggy Dug (even the name is grim) is not, mercifully, part of the official Yes campaign which, given his plainly limited mental capacity, is probably just as well. His argument is so stupid - and misleading - that one wonders if Duggy Dug is actually a Unionist fifth columnist. Then again, he's not much more embarrassing than some of the members of the Scottish parliament whose grasp of elementary concepts would be considered astonishingly weak if such disappointments still had the power to disappoint or astonish.

Isabel Hardman

George Osborne thickens his welfare dividing lines

We already knew that welfare would be a key dividing line for George Osborne at the next election. He set up the dividing lines in the emergency budget and comprehensive spending review in 2010, and they have largely stuck, which is a testament to the Chancellor's skill as a strategist. But at today's Treasury Select Committee, Osborne thickened those dividing lines with Labour by saying that the welfare budget must take another billions of pounds' worth of cuts. It was the language that Osborne used, as much as anything else, that revealed how the 2015 debate will pan out. He said: 'My view is that welfare expenditure cannot be excluded from the difficult decisions that need to be made.

Sebastian Payne

Five things you need to know about Ipsa’s final report on MPs’ pay

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority has released its final report on MPs' pay today. It's pretty much what was expected — a big salary bump, paid for by cutting back expenses and pensions, to start in the next Parliament. This is what you need to know: MPs' pay will a take one-off hike to £74,000. Ipsa says this is to 'address the historic shortfall’. This is a 11 per cent rise based on what they’re paid today, or 9.26 per cent on top of a previously announced inflation-linked pay rise. After this, MPs’ pay will track average earnings — going up or down based on what's going on rest of the country. Less generous pension scheme.

Frank Field

The first two years of life are more important for social mobility than schooling

Much is prattled on about social mobility. Practically the whole emphasis, however, is put on schools. Yet by the time most children reach school, life’s race for many of us has been determined. The report I wrote for the Prime Minister published in December 2010, The Foundation Years: preventing poor children becoming poor adults, had this as its main conclusion. Drawing on all the evidence we have available to us, the report suggested that the very first stages of life, in pregnancy, and during the first two years, are crucial as to where most children will end up in adult life. Using one of the national cohorts, Leon Feinstein showed that, probably at 3, but certainly at 5, the life destinations of children are clearly marked.

Steerpike

Adam Afriyie’s fantasy government

It's a shame that Adam Afriyie now seems to be a busted flush when it comes to his leadership ambitions. The Tory MP had succeeded not just in designating his fantasy cabinet, but also the lower ministerial ranks. Mr Steerpike hears that at the height of his plotting, he sidled up to fellow Conservative James Gray in a lift to tell him that his talents were not being appreciated by the Prime Minister. Then he added, comfortingly, that though he couldn't offer him a place in his Cabinet, he'd definitely be able to do something at Minister of State level. Gray did not want to give a comment to Mr Steerpike, but presumably he was delighted to have been considered at all by the great man.