Uk politics

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_9_January_2014_v4.mp3" title="David Goodhart and Tim Finch on Labour's immigration woes"] Listen [/audioplayer]Victor Spirescu came to Britain last week looking for work washing cars, but seems to have landed himself with a career in broadcasting. The Romanian, who arrived on the first flight into London after restrictions on workers from Bulgaria and Romania ended on 1 January, has now spent the days since touring studios and newspaper offices, obliging those who wish to talk to him about his new life. Those who bump into him as he weaves his way across television studios have the impression that he wishes he’d caught a slightly later flight.

Alex Salmond might not wish to be compared to Gordon Brown but there is one sense in which the two dominant Scottish political personalities of the age are more alike than either would care to acknowledge: they each love a good dividing line. In Edinburgh yesterday Salmond announced that all pupils in their first three years of primary school would henceforth be entitled to a free school lunch. This, he claimed, would save parents £330 a year per child. A useful benefit for those parents whose offspring do not currently qualify for free meals; a means of ending, the First Minister suggested, the stigma presently endured by those children who do rely on free meals. Labour voted against the proposal. Cue much celebration in Natland. Another dividing line has been established.

George Osborne's speech on the need for £25 billion more cuts has opened up some strange dividing lines in Westminster. Labour has done exactly what the Chancellor wanted and questioned the need for the cuts. Nick Clegg has also fallen into place as Osborne hoped and moaned about them being unfair. But Clegg has found an unlikely ally in Iain Duncan Smith, who has let it be known that he does not much like the idea that Osborne could cut a further £1 billion from the welfare bill. So who did Boris Johnson cosy up to this morning when he had his say?

We already knew that the Chancellor would focus on welfare as a field ripe for further cuts in his speech in Birmingham today. When he delivered that speech, George Osborne announced that the Treasury's current forecasts suggest that £12 billion of further welfare cuts are needed in the first two years of the next Parliament, and framed this as a challenge to all parties not to let voters down by refusing to cut benefits. He said: 'So when you see people on the telly who say that welfare can't be cut anymore - or, even worse, promising they will reverse the changes we've already made and increase housing benefit - ask yourself this: way public services would they cut instead? What taxes they would put up in their place?

One of the most significant things about David Cameron's Sunday Times interview today was something he didn't say. The Prime Minister made maintaining the triple lock for pensions for the next Parliament 'the first plank of the next general election manifesto', but he didn't make any 'read-my-lips' promises about anything else related to those of pensionable age. Why not? Did this mean the Conservatives are going to drop their support for universal pensioner benefits such as the winter fuel payment and free bus passes? His interview on Marr suggested that this could well happen.

Beyond the slew of amusing 'No man's hand' photos of the beleaguered François Hollande trying and failing to find support from other European leaders, there are a number of implications for the British political scene of the beleaguered French leader's latest crisis, in which he has been forced to admit that taxes have been too heavy while watching his country's manufacturing sector fall behind that of Greece and borrowing costs rise. The first is that David Cameron has a perfect case study of what happens when you stick your fingers in your ears and repeatedly say there is an alternative.

Could the north of England do with its own Boris Johnson? In a new report out today, the IPPR think tank argues that a ‘northern voice’ is needed to lobby the government on the region’s priorities. The Mayor of London has shown himself proficient at making the case for London’s transport and budgeting needs. Although the IPPR may be right, that there’s plenty of work needed to rebalance the economy, better national representation for the North isn’t a new problem. In fact, the North has previously said no to several possible solutions. A decade ago, John Prescott's plan for regional assemblies was overwhelmingly rejected by a northern referendum.

I’m sure the families clearing up after the Christmas and New Year floods have neither the time nor inclination to wonder if the floods were caused by climate change or not. Nevertheless the question has come up, as it inevitably seems to every time there is an extreme weather event nowadays. So, let’s look at the facts. Met Office data shows that four out of the five wettest years on record have been since year 2000. Official reports have repeatedly warned that the risk of flooding is becoming worse because of global warming. The Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Climate Change Risk Assessment warns 'floods and coastal erosion are already serious risks in the UK, and they are projected to increase as a result of climate change'.