Uk politics

Thursday

James Forsyth

Three reasons why Ukip would benefit from a Labour win in 2015

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_16_Oct_2014_v4.mp3" title="Lord Pearson and Damian Green join Lara Prendergast on this week's podcast to discuss Ukip and the Tories." startat=79.5] Listen [/audioplayer] What result at the next election would most suit Ukip? There is little doubt that the party would most benefit from a Labour victory in 2015, which I discussed in my Spectator column this week. In brief, Labour victory would mean: 1. No EU referendum and more EU immigration. Ed Miliband has taken a strong stance against an In/Out referendum despite pressure from inside his shadow Cabinet to agree to one. He is unlikely to change his mind on this if he became Prime Minister.

Steerpike

Watch: James Delingpole finds Michael Gove lurking in his garden

Mr Steerpike is not really sure what is going on here, but he felt it deserved a wider audience. So the Government Chief Whip had a ramble through James Delingpole's garden and ends up having a chat about Game of Thrones. Does anyone else get the sense that Michael Gove may in some way relate to Tryion Lannister? 'My favourite character in Game of Thrones is undoubtedly Tyrion Lannister... This misshapen dwarf, reviled throughout his life, thought to be in eyes of some, a toxic figure, can at last rally a small band of loyal followers... I am reminded of the words of Winston Churchill: 'never, never, never surrender.' For gaiety's sake, it's refreshing to see those old stuffy rules about a Chief Whip being silent publicly go out the window. What could go wrong?

Isabel Hardman

David Cameron: I want one last go at renegotiating Britain’s relationship with Europe

Is David Cameron about to announce emergency controls on European jobseekers or a points-based system on EU migration? The Times and the Sun both splashed on these ideas today (after Coffee House first revealed Cameron had promised a 'big bang' policy to Tory MPs, then led some of them to believe that he could introduce an Australian-style points-based system), and the PM was confronted on both as he did his walkout in Rochester, where he is campaigning today for the by-election. Funnily enough, the Prime Minister didn't deny any of the reports - partly because it's convenient to do so when trying to beat Ukip but also because this is all as a result of comments he himself has made. On the 'emergency brake', he said: 'We'll be setting out all of our plans in due course.

Isabel Hardman

Exclusive: Is a U-turn looming on the European Arrest Warrant?

Tory chief whip Michael Gove has been calling round MPs to suggest that it might be better if Britain does not opt back into the European Arrest Warrant, Coffee House has learned. Gove is aware that there will be a significant rebellion on the opt-in, with some estimating that around 50 Tory MPs already plan to vote against the measure. But this tactic, which some MPs think signals a dispute in government about the policy, and some think is simply the chief whip trying to sound out backbenchers using confusing and ornate language, could inflate the rebellion.

Douglas Murray

‘Islamophobia’ strikes again – national students’ union refuses to condemn Isis

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_16_Oct_2014_v4.mp3" title="Sean O'Callaghan and Govinda Clayton join Lara Prendergast to discuss talking to terrorists." startat=808.5] Listen [/audioplayer] In a world often devoid of good news, there has been a fine development on the farthest-flung shores of insanity. The British National Union of Students aspires to represent students, though traditionally tends only to represent those students who are politically ambitious and possess left wing views. In any case, its latest idiocy is that it has tied itself in knots over the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria - Isis. A condemnation of the ebullient Islamic group was tabled by a student of Kurdish descent.

The Spectator

Podcast: Tory-Ukip relations, terrorist negotiations and Brighton’s Green problems

In this week’s issue, Lord Pearson, the former leader of Ukip, describes how he tried to offer the Tories a pact before the last general election, but Cameron refused to  meet with him to discuss it.  Now it's too late, says Lord Pearson, and Cameron has forced Ukip to fight him to the end. Lord Pearson and Damian Green, the Conservative MP for Ashford, join Lara Prendergast on the podcast to discuss relations between the Tories and Ukip. Should we ever negotiate with the Islamic State? Jonathan Powell has recently suggested we should consider it. Jenny McCartney takes issue with his stance though.

Tim Stanley

Brighton has become an object lesson in why it is a disaster to vote Green

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_16_Oct_2014_v4.mp3" title="Tim Stanley and Jason Kitcat discuss Brighton" startat=1510] Listen Such is their incompetence that the Greens often hurt the very causes they push [/audioplayer]I have just moved back to Brighton, and I am happy to report that it remains as shambolic as ever. The estate agent said before opening the door to a prospective flat, ‘I’m obliged by law to tell you that the previous tenant was an alcoholic and died here.’ I replied, ‘I am not surprised and that is not a problem.’ No one who knows Brighton expects puritanism. Unfortunately, we have grown to expect dreadful politics.

Hugo Rifkind

Ukip is in the middle of the most cynical political repositioning ever

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_16_Oct_2014_v4.mp3" title="Lord Pearson and Damian Green discuss Ukip and the Tories" startat=81] Listen [/audioplayer]I think I’ve cracked it. If you want to springboard your minor political party into the mainstream and take British politics by storm, then all you need to do is go on and on about helping the poor. You don’t need to do much else. You certainly don’t need to modify your policies so that they actually help the poor. This would be overkill. Nor, frankly, do you even need to be 100 per cent up to speed on who the poor are. Feel free to conflate them with the elderly or the skilled working class or people who aren’t from London, or pretty much anybody, really.

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Exclusive: Cameron hints at points-based immigration system in meeting with Tory Right

Whatever David Cameron's promised 'big bang' announcement on immigration in the EU is, it has certainly excited Conservative backbenchers. A group of them confronted him this afternoon to ask whether Britain would be moving to a points-based system for EU migration along the lines of Australia (something Ukip advocates), and they say that he did not reject it. This has made them even more excited. The Prime Minister was speaking to the 'No Turning Back' group of Tory MPs, which some of those present at the meeting described as 'a little uncomfortable', mainly because these are the MPs who tend to cause him the most trouble. Others felt the meeting was relaxed, but left wondering whether Cameron really would deliver on these hints that he's been dropping over the last few months.

Sam Bowman

Lord Freud was right and Miliband shameful

Markets are amoral. If a severely disabled person cannot produce more than the minimum wage’s worth of work, no employer will be able to profitably employ them. Some generous ones might do so at a loss, but we cannot assume that there will be enough of them. Many severely disabled people who would like to work thus cannot do so. Lord Freud, a businessman turned welfare advisor to Tony Blair turned Tory minister, made this point at a fringe event at the recent Tory conference. He suggested that we could allow firms to employ severely disabled people at below the minimum wage. He also said we should use something like the Universal Credit financial-support scheme to make up the difference – although this has been much less widely reported.

Isabel Hardman

Lord Freud offers ‘full and unreserved apology’ for disability comments

Lord Freud has apologised for suggesting that disabled people were not 'worth' the minimum wage. He said: 'I would like to offer a full and unreserved apology. I was foolish to accept the premise of the question. To be clear, all disabled people should be paid at least the minimum wage, without exception, and I accept that it is offensive to suggest anything else. I care passionately about disabled people. I am proud to have played a full part in a government that is fully committed to helping disabled people overcome the many barriers they face in finding employment.

James Forsyth

Miliband takes on Cameron over Freud; Ukip gets a dig on recall

When Ed Miliband started speaking at PMQs today you could tell straight away that he had a foul sore throat. Combine that with the promising unemployment figures out today and Miliband forgetting two key chunks of his conference speech, and there was clear potential for the session to get very tricky for him. But Miliband had come to the Chamber armed with a series of hard questions for Cameron to answer about what Lord Freud, one of his welfare ministers had set at a fringe meeting at Tory conference. Freud apparently said that disabled people were not worth the minimum wage and that if they wanted to work for £2 an hour, that should be accommodated. listen to ‘PMQs: What is Cameron's ‘secret plan’ to pay for tax cuts?

Isabel Hardman

How the Greens are spooking Labour and the Lib Dems

Being excluded from the TV debates has been the best thing that could possibly happen to the Greens, it seems. Already over 100,000 people have signed a petition calling for the party to be included, and their membership in England reached 21,000 this week. Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas have enjoyed more media exposure than they have done for a good long while. The idea that the Establishment is trying to silence the Greens is also really helpful for their insurgent party credentials, as nothing enthuses supporters more than the sense that they are pushing against a Westminster conspiracy.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Tory MPs promised ‘big bang’ announcement on EU migration

The Tories will announce a big new policy on freedom of movement in the European Union, David Cameron told his MPs tonight. At a meeting of the Parliamentary party, the Tory leader promised what one Eurosceptic attendee described as a 'big bang' announcement on freedom of movement. Apparently this pleased those there no end, even those usually critical of the Prime Minister. MPs were also told they are expected to visit Rochester to campaign at least three times, and the cabinet five times, which is clearly an intervention from Lynton Crosby as the whips had decided at the end of last week that they wouldn't bother. This was what one source close to the PM described as 'a call to arms for us all'.

Alex Massie

I vow to thee, my Scotland, a small number of earthly things

Politics is a funny old game. I could have sworn the Yes campaign lost the Battle for Scotland in pretty decisive fashion last month. Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom. It did not vote for something that might be reckoned some kind of Independence Within the United Kingdom for the very good reason that was not the question asked. The country may not have rejected independence - and endorsed the Union - overwhelmingly but it did do so decisively. But to hear SNP and Yes supporters speak these days you'd think nothing of the sort had happened at all. They lost the war but think they have a mandate to dictate the terms of the peace. [Note to bone-headed literalists: it wasn't an actual war.

Harry Cole

Add to Miliband’s worries: Can Ukip go after Labour in Scotland?

Scottish Ukip MEP David Coburn has been shouting off, as his way, about his party’s prospects north of the border in 2015. Mr Coburn is a curious character - and there is a certainly an element of bluster here: ‘We’re looking at the Scottish rust belt. Seats where there were serious industries that were ­allowed to run down, with no replacement. These are seats that Labour has treated like a feudal system. It’s the Central Belt of Scotland, where people have just been abandoned or given sops to keep them happy.’ Whilst it should not be forgotten that Ukip gained 10 per cent of the Scottish vote in European elections last May, a breakthrough on the scale pitched by Coburn remains ambitious.

Steerpike

What’s the opposite of a champagne socialist? Phillip Blond

Phillip Blond, sporting tinted specs for this morning's devolution debate, is famed in the wonkier side of Westminster for his unique style. The self-styled 'Red Tory', who split with the Cameroons in favour of 'a new Tory economics that distributed property, market access and educational excellence to all', has his shirts and jackets handmade, adding a splash of colour to the somewhat drab think-tank world. There is even a musical tribute to the 'intellectual curio of the Conservative Party' and his clothes: Though Mr S thought it only kind to point out that you're meant to give those glasses back at the end of the film, Phillip.

Steerpike

Mrs Neil Hamilton for Ukip MP?

Like a bad smell, Neil Hamilton continues to linger around Westminster. The disgraced MP, who came to embody Tory sleaze by the time he lost his seat in 1997, has reinvented himself as Mr Ukip, with first a seat on the party's powerful National Executive Committee before scaling the dizzy heights of Deputy Chairman. Despite numerous controversies, the Hamiltons have weathered on with their media appearances, but Mr S hears it is Christine Hamilton that might have the more sustainable career in politics. Neil Hamilton was shunned for a MEP seat when the selections were made earlier in the year, and informed party sources pour water on the prospects of him being awarded a Ukip-friendly target seat for 2015.

Isabel Hardman

The shadow of EVEL will still hover over the Commons

Alex Salmond was on Today this morning, muttering darkly about a new betrayal of Scottish voters from Westminster leaders. He was looking ahead to this afternoon's debate on Scotland, where MPs will among other things, discuss the new plans for further devolution promised by leaders in their 'vow'.

Monday

Alex Massie

Boris Johnson asks voters to decide if he’s a fool or just a cynic. What a choice!

Boris is at it again this morning. Revealing, that is, why he cannot be trusted with office. To be charitable, I wouldn't trust many newspaper columnists with the keys to power.  But, of course, most Grub Street residents have no interest in being crowned Emperor. Boris does. Which is why his columns for the Daily Telegraph are so troublesome. You will remember the recent occasion when he suggested the burden of proof in criminal trials be reversed. That was revealing, but in a bad way. So is today's column in which he proposes setting quotas for immigrants from other EU countries. As is so often the case you are left to wonder which is worse: Boris meaning this or Boris not meaning this but writing it anyway. Neither answer is reassuring.