Harry Cole

There are plenty who have been left bruised by May’s decade and a half at the top of the Conservative party, but even her worst enemies concede that the woman who is to become the next Prime Minister has shown a remarkable durability in high office. She’s the longest-serving Home Secretary in half a century, and has made a success of what’s very often a career-ending job. A long-retired party grandee recalls May, then newly elected to Parliament, approaching him in 1997 to ask what she must do to succeed. ‘Ignore the little things,’ he replied. It’s advice that her critics reckon she has firmly ignored ever since.

Nick Clegg ain't done yet, and as if to prove how deadly serious he is about winning this election, the Deputy Prime Minister visited a hedgehog sanctuary on his first campaign stop. Probably his least prickly public encounter since 2010. The Liberal Democrats have focussed their initial onslaught focusing on women, with Monday's Guardian reporting that it was 'his mission to win over female voters in a number of his party’s target constituencies': 'Party strategists believe that winning over the female vote will be crucial to their chances of success across a range of key battleground constituencies.' All of which is a little embarrassing when you consider just how poor Clegg's party's record is when it comes to women.

listen to ‘Harry Cole discusses Theresa May's possible leadership bid on the Today programme ’ on audioBoom.

Scottish Ukip MEP David Coburn has been shouting off, as his way, about his party’s prospects north of the border in 2015. Mr Coburn is a curious character - and there is a certainly an element of bluster here: ‘We’re looking at the Scottish rust belt. Seats where there were serious industries that were ­allowed to run down, with no replacement. These are seats that Labour has treated like a feudal system. It’s the Central Belt of Scotland, where people have just been abandoned or given sops to keep them happy.’ Whilst it should not be forgotten that Ukip gained 10 per cent of the Scottish vote in European elections last May, a breakthrough on the scale pitched by Coburn remains ambitious.

By the time a politician stands up to give a speech, it has been briefed out, pre-butted, rebutted, shredded in print and spat out on TV. Politics has become a boring conveyor belt, meticulously organised and frankly dull. Focus-grouped and polled to death. The only unexpected drama comes when things get dirty — from verbal fisticuffs to the dark arts. But now even that is under threat. ‘I honestly believe that we need a new politics,’ said Brownite gruppenführer Tom Watson recently. ‘Service, love and compassion,’ dreams the man whose plotting brought down Blair. Reformed boot boy Watson embodies the startling emaciation of Westminster.

The CCHQ strategy is to never to talk about strategy, but Tory chairman Grant Shapps cannot hide his excitement on this Saturday afternoon. Just a week after the Conservative Party came third in a national poll for the first time ever, 650 Tory activists are out campaigning in the Newark by-election. That is enough boots on the ground to deliver 40,000 leaflets and canvass the entire Nottinghamshire constituency ahead of Thursday’s vote. ‘I haven’t seen anything like this since Crewe,’ one seasoned activist tells me, referring to David Cameron’s narrative shaping by-election victory over Gordon Brown in 2008.

As the crucifixion of Damian McBride over Easter in 2009 proves, the four-day news void can be gruesome for Downing Street, yet it seems congratulations are in order this year. No.10 managed to throw the chattering classes such a juicy bone of distraction that they all spent Easter trying to convince themselves that the UK is not a Christian country. The row was stoked by an assorted group of lefties with impeccable Labour, Liberal and Green credentials writing to the Telegraph, questioning why a PM may possibly wish to talk about religion. The irony that it was Easter, top and tailed by two bank holidays where their entire ‘non-Christian country’ shuts down for 96 hours in celebration of the resurrection of Christ was lost on these modern day Doubting Thomases.

Boris being Boris, he has managed to rule something out without actually ruling anything out at all. As Isabel noted this morning, the Mayor of London has said he will not stand for Parliament before 2015, and will remain in City Hall as promised until 2016. Which is not the same as ruling out standing in the 2015 election. The latest Boris v Osborne twists have allowed speculation about a post-Cameron age to rise to the surface again, and having spoken to Tory MPs over the last few weeks, it is obvious that said speculation is never far from their lips. 2015 is still a white-knuckle fight, but that’s not to say plans are not afoot were it all to go very wrong for the PM.

'When in the course of human events, it becomes necessary to one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another', the best way of going about it probably isn't to write a 670-page document and then snarkily deride journalists who point out the obvious holes in it. As an old romantic, vaguely sympathetic to the dream of Scottish independence, I have long suspected that the SNP leadership are the greatest hindrance to the separatist cause. Alex Salmond's off-form, dull, dreary performance this morning only served to reconfirm that feeling. While separation is unlikely and potentially dangerous, increased devolution shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

‘Well the cost of living can’t be that high if people can waste eggs’, chortled many a wag today as silly season exploded all over Ed Miliband’s face and jacket. As reported, the shell-shocked Labour leader was in South London to talk about the rising cost of living under the Tories, but had his media appearance poached by a protester hurling a dozen eggs at him. Giving Miliband the benefit of the doubt for a moment, how have living costs risen? Let's take a piece of random household expenditure, something that immediately springs to mind. Eggs, say. Wholesale cost of eggs in the UK (pence per dozen) Source: https://www.gov.

Tonight, the ‘cross-party’ Better Together referendum campaign will have their London launch. At an event in the heart of Westminster the begging bowl will go round, and a rallying call to protect the union will go up. But who will be missing? Their heart might be set on a very different referendum, but emails seen by Coffee House show that Ukip are being officially excluded from campaigning to preserve the United Kingdom in 2014. Correspondence between the Better Together campaign and Ukip Scotland reveals that, despite protestations from the latter, the ‘board of directors’ at Better Together are only officially interested in working with the ‘Scottish Labour Party, Scottish Liberal Democrat Party and the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party.

It now looks almost certain that Andrew Mitchell will be our next EU Commissioner in 2014. The job was not advertised and the backroom selection process remains a mystery. In the wake of the Plebgate row, though, we can make an educated guess as to why, according to the FT, Downing Street has asked Mitchell ‘to consider’ the offer. This would be no ordinary consolation prize for Mitchell. Downing Street has big hopes for Mitchell in the role. Senior Whitehall sources indicate that Britain will be pushing hard for a big economic portfolio when the new commission is appointed next year. The aim is to make the case for financial reform of the EU, resist protectionism and safeguard the competitiveness of the City of London.