Uk politics

Jonathan Powell seems to be unavoidable at the moment. Having read his first two books a couple of times I felt a weary sense of resignation on news of the third. It wasn’t until I saw and heard him on channel 4 news that I felt serious irritation. We, whoever 'we' may be, should talk with everyone, everywhere, at any time, because we always do anyway - pretty much summed it up. Words are important - the more so when they are delivered by Tony Blair’s former chief of staff, who is much credited  with making a serious contribution to the Belfast Agreement. Jonathan Powell is a serious man, although one would be hard pushed to recognise that if you tuned into his Channel 4 performance.

Why are the Conservatives so serene after losing the Clacton by-election and seeing their vote collapse in Heywood and Middleton? It is not that the party has finally decided endless fighting is no longer a good idea, but that it is holding its breath for the Rochester and Strood by-election. If Mark Reckless, the second Ukip defector, wins this, then the meltdown in David Cameron's party will make the Labour response this week look positively icy. The Tories had quickly accepted Douglas Carswell would win in Clacton and so there was little excuse for even their more febrile factions to panic.

The Tory whips are busy today, but not necessarily with fallout from the Clacton by-election. They have sent a message round to MPs saying the following: 'There is a possibility that there will be a business statement on Monday which will also affect whipping next week.' Some MPs have read this as a suggestion that they may be asked to vote on military action against Isis in Syria, which Number 10 has so far been reluctant to do. The Lib Dems have said they can't see what benefit British troops would bring to the situation Syria. But chances are that Monday's statement will relate to another event that's taken place while MPs were away.

2.50am Douglas Carswell’s victory speech, after winning a 12,404 majority, was not triumphalist: there was no tub-thumping. Instead, he said that Ukip must be the party of 1st and 2nd generation Britons, that its passion must be tempered by compassion and argued that the era of dominant cartel was coming to an end in everything from banking to politics. listen to ‘Douglas Carswell's Clacton victory speech’ on audioBoom 2.45 Ukip win Clacton, Douglas Carswell is Ukip's first elected MP with more than 60% of the vote 2.35am Result coming very soon now 2.15 The BBC's Chris Mason is reporting that Douglas Carswell will have a 12 thousand plus majority, a quite remarkable result 2.

The Liberal Democrats might be in the single digits in the polls, but they were distinctly chipper this week. There’s one simple explanation for this, the political landscape gives them hope that there will be another hung parliament and they will be in government again after 2015. But I think there is another factor behind this Lib Dem cheer: they’ve come to terms with what they’ve done in government.   Large parts of Clegg’s speech today seemed designed to prepare activists with lines to use on the doorstep. When it came to the tuition fees, the tone was—despite Clegg’s earlier apology—strikingly defiant. He said, ‘when you meet people who still aren't sure about us, ask them this: How will you judge us?