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[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/putin-s-empire-building/media.mp3" title="Sebastian Payne and Matthew Goodwin discuss what goes on behind the scenes at Ukip" startat=1222] Listen [/audioplayer]In Ukip’s Mayfair headquarters there is a copy of Banksy’s monkey with the sign around its neck: ‘Laugh now, but one day we’ll be in charge’. It seems appropriate. For years, Nigel Farage and his party were dismissed as a bunch of cranks. Within three months, they could be propping up David Cameron’s government, having named their price — perhaps an EU referendum before the year is out. Conservatives stopped sneering at Ukip a while ago. Now they’re more worried about its ambitions. What does Ukip want?

Has the SNP threat to Labour in Scotland abated? Not yet according to Lord Ashcroft, who has released his latest round of constituency level polling. Focusing on the SNP/Labour marginals, Ashcroft has found that in five current Labour strongholds, the SNP are on track to swipe away four of them: Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh South West and Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath — the latter of course being represented by Gordon Brown. The only good news for Labour is East Renfrewshire, where Labour has a one-point lead. Thankfully for the party, it's their leader Jim Murphy's seat.  In the single Conservative Scottish seat, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, the Tories are neck and neck with the SNP.

Are the SNP poised to become Westminster’s kingmakers? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Alex Massie discusses this week’s cover feature on the role the Scottish nationalists could play after the next general election. If the SNP wipe out Labour north of the border, will questions about the future of the union be back on the table? How is propping up a Labour government second prize for the SNP? And are the Scottish elections in 2016 more important to Scottish labour than this year’s battle? James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman also discuss why the upcoming election will not be very general. Are any of the parties planning to fight a national campaign? Do the opinion polls say anything relevant about the state of the campaign?

Naturally, the parties set to benefit the most from any allegations of impropriety against MPs are the 'anti-politics' bunch: Ukip, the Greens and the SNP. You can always when the Greens think there are some votes to be snaffled from Labour by how quickly they issue a press release condemning the latest policy or revelations that concern the party. Today Natalie Bennett said: 'The influence of big business in politics is corrosive, and seems to run through the veins of the entire political establishment. That's why we need real change now.' Jack Straw was rather swiftly suspended from the Labour Party following the publication of the joint Telegraph/Channel 4 sting.

Who ends up governing Britain after the election may well be determined by what happens in the Scottish seats. If the SNP take a slew of seats from Labour, it becomes far more likely that the Tories will be the largest party nationally. Add to that the fact that Cameron is the incumbent Prime Minister and he would, in these circumstances, probably be able to put together a deal that sees him carry on as Prime Minister. Labour is acutely aware of this and is busy warning Scots ‘Vote SNP, Get Tory.’ But in this anti-politics era, these squeeze messages don’t work as well as they used to—as the Tories are finding out with their ‘Vote Ukip, Get Miliband’ warnings.

At last, the picture is becoming clearer. We now have a better idea of what the SNP will demand in return for its support to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street. Nicola Sturgeon didn’t use the term ‘red line issue’ but this was the clear message underlying both the broadcast interviews she made this morning and her keynote speech at UCL. We have known for some time that the SNP leadership does not favour a formal coalition with Labour. Rather, it would look for a ‘confidence and supply’ deal, backing Labour’s Budgets and opposing no confidence motions and expecting concessions in return. And now there appear to be two ‘red lines’ - concessions which the SNP would expect from Labour.

With every week that goes by, the more likely it is that the next election could result in a stalemate with neither Labour nor the Tories able to put together a deal that gives them a majority in the Commons. One Downing Street source, who has crunched the numbers, predicted to me last week that, because of what is going on in Scotland, the Tories will be the largest party on 280-odd seats. But if the Tories have only 280-odd seats, even deals with both the Liberal Democrats and the Democratic Unionists wouldn’t give them a majority. But Labour wouldn’t be able to stich one together either. For, as I report in the Mail on Sunday, the Lib Dem leadership would not put Ed Miliband into Downing Street if he came second in terms of seats and votes.

The dramatic rout of Scottish Labour continues. Polls suggest the SNP will take 55 out of 59 seats and of the 14 constituencies surveyed by Lord Ashcroft, only Glasgow North East is set to remain in Labour hands. Such political collapses are rare in UK politics - so what's going on? Prior to 2011, the dividing line of Scottish politics was ‘to be or not to be’ Labour. This was a huge advantage to a party which, faced with split opposition, managed to win 69% of Scottish seats in 2010 with just 42% of the vote.

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_5_Feb_2015_v4.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Alex Massie discuss Labour's problems north of the border" startat=1118] Listen [/audioplayer]Just four months ago Scotland was the scene of great cross-party co-operation — unprecedented in peace-time politics. Gordon Brown was offering advice on David Cameron’s speeches, Douglas Alexander and the Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson turned themselves into a formidable debating duo, and Charles Kennedy was being hailed by Labour strategists as the man who would save the Union. Even George Galloway got in on the act.

Gordon Brown is holding an adjournment debate on the union this evening, which comes after an Ashcroft poll which shows precisely what danger the union is in. If today’s polls were tomorrow’s election result, the SNP would have 55 out of 59 seats in Scotland. It's even set to lose Coatbridge, where it picked up 67pc of the vote at the last election. Yes, all this will help the Tories in the short term: Cameron needs the SNP to destroy Labour in the north and the SNP need Cameron in No10 – remember, their political model is based on grudge and gripe. Without a villain, Alex Salmond won't have a pantomime. But back to Brown. He designed devolution to kill off the Tories in Scotland – he succeeded, but has ended up with the SNP instead.

The headline figures in today's YouGov poll for The Times are brutal for Scottish Labour. Labour (27 percent) are still 20 points behind the SNP (48%). But that's the good news. Because everything else is even worse. Consider this: 95 percent of SNP supporters think Nicola Sturgeon is doing a good job. That's impressive or, if you prefer, slightly terrifying. But, hark at this: 39 percent of Labour supporters think Nicola is performing admirably. Her net approval rating amongst Labour voters is just -4. Jim Murphy's net approval rating amongst SNP supporters, meanwhile, is -54. Or this: 67 percent of SNP voters say there is no chance they will change their minds before the election but only 50 percent of Labour supporters are so certain.

While the behaviour of the Westminster mob at PMQs is often reminiscent of playground bickering, the women of Scotland are taking a more civilised approach as they prepare for First Minister's Questions. Far from any hostilities between their opposing parties, Nicola Sturgeon has been joshing on Twitter with Ruth Davidson, Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, and Kezia Dugdale, Deputy Leader of Scottish Labour. The trio put their politics aside to support Andy Murray in his match at the Australian Open. @RuthDavidsonMSP I'm sure we could come to some arrangement - @kdugdalemsp?

There’s a belter of a scoop in today’s Daily Mail. James Chapman, the paper’s political editor, reports that the Ministry of Defence is examining plans to move Trident from Scotland to Wales. I’m particularly confident that this story is correct because I had heard something very similar from Whitehall sources. There is understandable concern that a second independence referendum in Scotland is now likely and so the whole question of where to move Trident in the event of a Yes vote arises again. I also wonder if this work might not come in handy in the event of a hung parliament where the Scottish Nationalists hold the balance of power.

Even by the standards of the Conservative and Unionist (sic) party this is an impressively stupid poster. Do they really want to encourage Scots to vote for the SNP? Evidently they do. Of course we know why. Every seat Labour lose in Scotland makes it less and less likely Labour will emerge from the election as the largest party. Consequently, every SNP gain makes it a little more likely David Cameron will have a chance of cobbling together a second ministry. But, my god, think of the price at which that comes. In their desperation to stop Miliband the Tories are prepared to risk the future of the United Kingdom. They might win this election but at the expense of losing their country. As Pyrrhic conquests go, that takes some beating.