Military

Saturday

Daniel Korski

The Libyan resistance is on the front foot

The fight between Colonel Gaddafi's forces and the resistance to his rule will clearly take some time, but the rebels have had a good 24 hours.  In Brega, Gaddafi's forces deserted in large numbers, handing 10 vehicles over to rebels. A loyalist brigadier was killed and in Ajdabiya government forces withdrew overnight, while rebels also made progress in Zintan.   The RAF made a key a contribution: its aggressive supported the rebels holding out in Misrata, taking out a number of APCs and a loyalist tank.  Best of all, however, is the news that a Brazilian plastic surgeon has told Gulf News how he took fat out of Colonel Gaddafi's bottom in 1995 to smooth wrinkles in his face, and gave him hair plugs.

Friday

Peter Hoskin

From the archive: the consequences of Nato bombing Kosovo

There are two reasons to return to the Kosovo Conflict for this week's hit from the archives. First, of course, the surface parallels with Libya: Nato involvement, bombing raids, all that. Second, that yesterday was the 12th anniversary of Nato's first operation in Kosovo. Here's Bruce Anderson's take from the time: Milosevic has Kosovo, Nato has no idea, Bruce Anderson, The Spectator, 3 April 1999 There is a precedent for Kosovan conflict: Suez. Then, as now, our indignation was inflamed by misleading historical analogies; Milosevic is not Hitler, any more than Nasser was. Then, as now, we were afflicted by geopolitical tunnel vision, and lost all contact with the wider strategic realities.

Daniel Korski

Libya has shown the government the virtue of a multilateral approach

The Libya intervention has already turned the international kaleidoscope, showing new and remarkable patterns. It has seen China acquiesce to a no-fly zone, and the West in alliance with the Arab League. Nobody thought that was likely 6 months ago. It has also changed reputations. Nicolas Sarkozy may win re-election on the back of the war. William Hague, who had a bad revolution, is having a good war.   The government has become more multilateralist, as opposed to the kind of bilateralism it espoused when it took office. Nearly a year ago, it sent a clear message to the FCO — bilateral ties would matter, multilateral ties less so.

Peter Hoskin

Now the questions are Nato’s to answer

Now, at least, we know: Nato will be taking charge of the no-fly zone that has been erected around Libya. And we might even welcome the news. As soon as the Americans made it clear that this was not their conflict to command, a new leadership arrangement was always going to be required — and Nato were the obvious choice. The only real barriers to their assumption of power have been French enthusiasm and Turkish reluctance, but they now appear to have been reconciled. In so far as this has clarified the next steps in Libya, it is a good thing. But confusion remains, and in wholesale quantities.

Thursday

Daniel Korski

Libya: next steps

The Libya intervention goes on, with as many question marks hanging over the operation as airplanes in the sky. What is the aim? Who will run it? Can the United States, Britain and France keep allies such as Turkey on board? Behind the scenes, officials are said to be looking at various options, including if and how to support the rebels. But the hand-wringing is now even audible across St James Park. Realistically, the UK should in the first instance work towards establishing a stalemate between loyalists and rebels. From such a stalemate a political process can then begin, which, though it may take many years and continue during the fighting, can help create the foundations for a new Libya.

James Forsyth

Libya operation will take months not weeks

With the Budget over, attention is beginning to shift back to the situation in Libya. A government source tells me that they expect the mission in Libya now to run for months not weeks. The challenge is that while the allies can stop Gaddafi’s forces from advancing from the sky, they can’t make the poorly organised and poorly armed rebels advance. There’s also an arms embargo in place on the whole of Libya and while some small arms are moving across the border with Egypt into the rebel-held east, the Gaddafi regime still remains far-better armed. This conflict could be over very quickly if those inside the regime turn against Gaddafi. But if they do not, this could go on for far longer than most people expect.

Fraser Nelson

Scouring the Budget small print

This morning's newspapers have a feast of analysis on the Budget. I've covered 15 of them, and what journalists normally do is spend the day trawling the small print of the Budget document hunting for stories. But this time, the stories seem to have migrated to the Office for Budget Responsibility's accompanying report, packed with new analyses and metrics — even disaster scenarios — which those with an interest in UK economics will find useful. The OBR document is now released with the Red Book, and speaks with the authority of government economists who (unlike the rest of us) have had weeks to chew over Osborne's claims. The OBR must now be considered part of the Budget's small print.

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

Ending Cameron’s War

The coalition is now in danger of coming unstuck — not because of failure, but because of its success. It needs to urgently decide how to run itself and what its aims are. Before it runs out of targets. Neither is easy to do. The US may want to handover control of the mission but there is not really anyone they can transfer authority to. NATO is being blocked from assuming control, the EU does not have the wherewithal — its naval mission off Somalia's coast is already run out of Permanent Joint Headquarters in north London — and the UK and France would struggle to run the mission, either jointly or individually.

James Forsyth

Removing Gaddafi is key

The question of whether Gaddafi should be targeted and what the exit strategy should be in Libya are intimately linked. In truth, there is no exit strategy that does not involve Gaddafi’s fall from power. As long as he is there, the threat to those that the international community is now pledged to protect will remain. Even a de facto partition of Libya with Gaddafi in charge of the west and the rebels the east would require — at least — an over the horizon presence to ensure that Gaddafi did not attempt to raid across the line or invade the east. At the moment, the British government appears to be relying on Gaddafi being toppled by his own military in an act of self-preservation.

Daniel Korski

War aims

A few days into the no-fly zone and the initial aim of the intervention has been achieved: Colonel Ghaddafi no longer controls his own airspace and cannot use airpower for close-air support, intimidation or murder. But success has bred a new problem - what now? Should the coalition turn itself into the airborne wing of the resistance, providing support to a rebel advance on Tripoli? Or should it just continue patrolling the skies above Libya as the rebels fight on? If so, how should the coalition react when the rebels face military set-backs? Should they stand back or prevent Libyan forces from taking advantage of their tactical victories and just have DfiD deliver humanitarian assistance?

Monday

James Forsyth

Cameron promises that Libya is ‘not another Iraq’

Discussion of military action brings a different atmosphere to the chamber of the House of Commons: quieter, less disputatious, more consensual. In opening the debate, the Prime Minister took a huge number of interventions including a large number from those MPs who are most sceptical of this intervention. All were heard respectfully and answered respectfully. Cameron’s desire to find consensus was part of his broader message that this is ‘not another Iraq.’ He stressed that the action in Libya was necessary, legal and right and that any kind of occupying force is ruled out. He argued that the intervention had been ‘in the nick of time’ to prevent a massacre in Benghazi.

Peter Hoskin

Putin rages against the “crusading” West

A gold star for Vladimir Putin, for providing us with one of the most extraordinary interventions of the day. While we knew that the Russian Prime Minister is opposed to military action in Libya — and also that he is no natural friend of the West — it is still striking to hear him talk as he does in the video above. "It reminds me," he says of the UN resolution at hand, "of the medieval call for a crusade." Ever the pacifist, he then goes on to rail against the "steady trend in US policy" to get involved in conflicts abroad. Meanwhile, our government is doing its part to assure Parliament, and the public, that their policy on Libya is more multilateral than medieval. Their note on the legal basis for action in Libya has just been published.

James Forsyth

Targeting Gaddafi

The press is currently making great play of an apparent difference between General Richard and Liam Fox on whether or not Gaddafi can be targeted. The whole debate flags up one of the absurdities of international legal convention. If it is legitimate to hit a Libyan tank crew moving on Benghazi, why it is not legitimate to target the person who is ultimately giving these orders?     Given the whole nature of the Libyan state, the fastest — and, I would say, most humane — way to end this conflict would be to kill Gaddafi.

Peter Hoskin

The Yemeni domino totters

Call it the domino effect, if you like. After Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, Yemen is the latest country to drag its rulers to the precipice — and it could push them over, too. The latest news is that several Yemeni generals have joined the protesters in calling on President Saleh to stand down. One source tells al-Jazeera that 90 per cent of the army could do likewise by this evening. The broad consensus is that the current regime is wheezing to a close. So what next? From this vantage point, Yemen is certainly one of those countries where change should be greeted warily. It's not so much the emerging prospect of a military junta, but more the encroaching presence of al-Qaeda in the margins (aka "the mountains").

Daniel Korski

Moussa’s mess

Just as the world thought the Arab League had entered adulthood its Secretary-General, Amr Moussa, threw a teenage tantrum, voicing concern that the coalition bombing of Libya went beyond a no-fly zone. He had wanted the protection of civilians, he said, not the bombardment of more civilians. But it is hard to see what Moussa had in mind. Did he want to micromanage operations from his desk, picking targets as Lyndon Johnson did during the Vietnam War? Or is the temptation to play to the Arab gallery too much? Could it be that Moussa's presidential ambitions in Egypt are better served by not being too close to the West? Either way, his behaviour is disappointing.

Peter Hoskin

Obama’s nervousness makes life difficult for him and his allies

Gingerly, gingerly — that's how the Americans are approaching the presentational battle over Libya, if not the actual campaign itself. There is no bombast in the official broadcasts from Washington, nor categorical intent. Instead we have Robert Gates emphasising, as he did yesterday evening, that the US will soon handover "primary responsibility" for the mission to us or the French. Or there's Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying that "potentially one outcome" is for Gaddafi to stay in power (see video above). The idea of regime change, or of deeper US involvement, is being downplayed all round. What's clear, perhaps even understandable, is that Obama & Co. are eager not to exhume the ghosts of Iraq.

Sunday

David Blackburn

Gaddafi calls for a ceasefire, again

Sky News has footage of officials of the Gaddafi regime (if that's not too grand a phrase) saying that the Colonel has called his armed forces to a ceasefire. This announcement has come after a day of intense air attacks on targets across Libya, including in Tripoli, where anti-aircraft guns have been called into action. It also follows the Arab League's sudden crisis of confidence, which Gaddafi may have seen as a chance route to safety.  Statements from the MoD and Foreign Office suggest that the allies have not been perturbed by Amr Moussa's reservations. The bombing is expected to continue. But perhaps this ceasefire, if it is honoured, will make the US, France and Britain scale back their offensive operations.

David Blackburn

The Arab League puts a spanner in the works

According to Sky’s Tim Marshall, the Arab League is to meet in emergency session to discuss events in Libya. It seems that some of its members are opposed to the action being taken by the French, which it believes exceeds the remit of the UN Resolution for a no-fly zone. The bombing of tanks in particular has raised the ire of its General Secretary Amr Moussa. The Arab League’s assent was crucial to obtaining the Resolution, so Moussa’s reservations are significant – although quite what he thought he was agreeing to in the first place is anyone’s guess. Moussa is a probable candidate in the forthcoming Egyptian presidential election, so perhaps Sarkozy is not the only leader using Libya for personal gain.

Fraser Nelson

Sarkozy’s game

I'm hearing more reports about the rather peculiar behaviour of Nicholas Sarkozy, and how he is playing the Libya campaign thus far. Obama wants to hand over leadership of this mission quick. He was never really into it, but the US Navy was overwhelmingly the best placed to do the first phase of the mission (ie, fire Tomahawks into 20 Libyan targets). The Tomahawk team constituted 11 US ships and submarines, plus one British submarine. Anything other than American leadership would have been a joke. Phase Two is to take out Gaddafi's surface-to-air missiles as soon as he dares to move them. Obama wants to hand over the baton to NATO, with its bases in southern Italy and other Mediterranean nations. But Sarko objects. He likes the idea of US, UK and France as a triumvirate.

David Blackburn

The allies converge on Gaddafi

George Osborne appeared on the Andrew Marr show this morning to introduce the Pledge of his Budget magic trick. But Marr and his viewers wanted talk about the show of military strength over Libya. Osborne reiterated that the government is committed to enforcing the UN Resolution and had no plans to deploy ground troops at this stage. He refused to rule out the use of British ground forces in the future. Privately, officials are trying to dispel the perception that the UN Resolution forbids the use of Special Forces commandos to assist the bombing campaign. The Resolution does not permit an occupation, but it would be very surprising if covert operations were not already being planned against Gaddafi's military installations and logistical infrastructure.