Iran

Trump shows the world what he’s made of

In what will likely be remembered as the most monumental decision of his presidency, Donald Trump decided to pull the trigger. The very vocal portion of his supporters that advocated publicly against action to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities found out, much to their chagrin, where they stand in the pecking order. Under Trump, the President himself, alone, decides what will be done – and he will not be threatened, cajoled or blackmailed out of doing what he believes to be right. Trump has been emphatic since 2011: Iran cannot be allowed to have a bomb. And he was willing to go as far as sending seven B-2 bombers thousands of miles across the seas to make sure of it.What does this do to Trump's coalition?

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Did the Wall Street Journal just prevent a war?

Zero-hour was approaching. A joint US-Israeli attack on the mullahs’ mountain fastness at Fordow seemed imminent. The B-52s were on the tarmac, the USS Nimitz had taken to sea, Ambassador Mike Huckabee was reaching for the smelling salts.  And then? A last-minute pause. “I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks,” said the President. Delays like these have now become a standard part of Trump’s box of tricks. If a drama – like the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs of earlier this year – can be kept going for a little longer, then all the more time to extract further concessions from the opposing party. As negotiating tactics go there are certainly worse ones. But was there another reason?

Wall Street Journal
Iran

Whatever happens, Iran will still seek a nuclear weapon

An Iranian politician sits on a sofa giving an interview about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. "Why should Iran not have a nuclear weapon when France, the UK and the US all have nuclear weapons? What is the difference between our nations?" The politician goes on to lay out Iran’s regional intellectual and cultural superiority, citing an illustrious history going back centuries, explicitly linking Iranian exceptionalism with the issue of nuclear power. You’d be forgiven for thinking that this Iranian politician was an official of the Islamic Republic. It was the Shah and the year was 1973.

The Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz roast

Tucker Carlson teased an upcoming podcast with Senator Ted Cruz Tuesday night by posting a short, fiery clip from the two-hour interview. The clip spotlights Cruz's alleged ignorance of basic information about Iran. But, after Cockburn watched the much anticipated episode, he is sad to say that the grown men's yelling competition featured in the teaser turned out to be a faithful representation of the podcast as a whole. Here are Cruz and Carlson's zestiest and best delivered zingers: When discussing the Iran-backed assassination attempt of the former secretary of state Brian Hook, Cruz said, "Killing terrorists is a good thing.

Tucker Carlson screenshot

Posting your way through World War Three

A few months ago Team Trump tried to organize its war-gaming plans on the messaging app Signal. It didn’t work. It appears the team has taken to an even more secure platform, as the Iran-Israel war escalates, communicating instead on X. US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee shares with the President, Cockburn and everyone else: Mr. President, God spared you in Butler, PA to be the most consequential President in a century – maybe ever. The decisions on your shoulders I would not want to be made by anyone else. You have so many voices speaking to you Sir, but there is only ONE voice that matters. HIS voice. I am your appointed servant in this land and am available for you but I do not try to get in your presence often because I trust your instincts.

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Trump

Trump is putting ‘America First’ by ignoring the MAGA punditocracy

Political imbrioglios often take on the character of theological controversy. Back in the 6th century, the wise men of the Western Church, pondering the Trinity, decided to make an addition to the Nicene Creed. The Holy Spirit, they determined, proceeded not simply “ex Patre” (“from the Father”) but also “filioque,” “and from the son.” No big deal, right? Wrong. For reasons I shall refrain from dilating on now, the Eastern Church repudiated the addition. Controversy raged for centuries. Indeed, what became known as the “filioque controversy” culminated, in AD 1054, in the Great Schism between the Eastern Church and the West. For most of us mortals, the controversy now seems arcane, not to say bootless. But at the time it was a matter of life and death.

Regime change

Trump won’t be dragged into a regime-change war

The handsome pages of The Spectator World’s July issue readers will find an essay of mine arguing that the United States doesn’t win wars anymore because we don’t even understand what a modern war is. From the French Revolution to the Cold War, and in the long, warm afterglow—thankfully, non-nuclear—of Cold War success, Western elites have tended to think about wars in terms of regimes and ideologies. Winning a war is all about changing the opponent’s regime so that it endorses one’s own ideology: turning a “dictatorship” into a “liberal democracy” through the magic of bombs and bullets.

Inside the April Ryan-John Fredericks Briefing Room brouhaha

Radio Ga Ga That’s it, yes, it’s war! Forget Israel and Iran’s back and forth, ignore the tanks on Constitution Avenue: the real conflict of the week was the heated Briefing Room scrap between two titans of radio, John Fredericks and April Ryan. It all kicked off on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the press briefing, when Trump-supporting call-in host Fredericks sidled in and started airing his grievances about how the briefings used to work under the previous Trump administration. He was moaning about how he never got to ask questions due to the focus-pulling antics of CNN’s Jim Acosta and April Ryan, who, sources tell Cockburn, he referred to as the “woman from urban radio.” Fredericks said this... while directly next to Ryan.

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Khamenei

Will Israel kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

After Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised new retaliatory attacks against Israel following its unprecedented military operation, there has been considerable speculation about whether Israel will retaliate in the ongoing volley by killing Khamenei himself. Khamenei is the glue that holds the Islamic Republic together, having served as supreme leader since 1989. If he were to be killed by Israel, it would shock the Islamic Republic and could destabilize the regime. Targeting Khamenei via airstrikes or infiltrating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Vali Amr Protection Corps, which provides his personal protection, would be the two most probable modes to eliminate him. As he grows older, Khamenei's world has become smaller.

Netanyahu

Trump has been outmaneuvered by Netanyahu

The surprising thing isn’t that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attacked Iran. It’s that the current bombing campaign didn’t occur sooner. Netanyahu has been inveighing against the Iran threat for decades. The prospect that Trump might be prepared to cut a nuclear deal with the Iranian mullahs finally forced his hand. Trump, who based much of his MAGA movement around opposition to endless wars in the Middle East, has been outmaneuvered by Bibi. Intent on a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump proclaimed that he would secure an end to the Ukraine war within 24 hours. Then he focused his attentions on Iran. But his impulse to avoid war, any war, in the Middle East has been foiled.

Trump’s birthday surprise – war with Iran?

The Trump presidency is giving us all a type of news-related diabetes. So much sensational information is spewing out of our screens all the time. There are so many stories, so much richness and history and irony, and so much silliness and seriousness entwined. We are dangerously overfed and now the lines of reality are blurring and people feel mad and sick. The Trump-Musk saga goes on, as Elon telephones Donald and shows his contrition on X. Trump sends in troops to control anti-ICE protests. Trump attends Les Miserables at his increasingly camp Kennedy Center.

Will Putin help Trump’s Iran deal?

Spectacular. Stunning. Game-changing. These are just three of the adjectives news reporters have used to describe Ukraine’s attack deep within Russia last weekend. There’s no doubt that the “Spiderweb” operation was technologically ingenious, well-concealed and brilliantly executed. Ukraine claimed its 117 drones destroyed or damaged some 41 strategic Russian bombers and caused $7 billion worth of damage to the Russian armed forces. But can an attack really be game-changing if the game doesn’t change? US officials have suggested the strikes hit only 20 Russian aircraft and, while Spiderweb must have shocked Russia’s leadership, the Kremlin is still more than willing and able to continue bombing Ukraine with relative impunity.

Trump

Will Iran take the nuclear win?

To enrich or not enrich? This seems to have been the question dividing Iranian and American negotiators, and there are swelling choruses in Tehran and Washington who hold strong views on the matter. In a report leaked to Axios, it appears that during the last round of talks, the US gave Iran a proposal that would allow limited low-level uranium enrichment for a specified period. The proposal suggested that Iran would be forbidden from building new enrichment facilities and must dismantle “critical infrastructure for conversion and processing of uranium,” adding that research and development on centrifuges would also have to stop. Sanctions relief will only come once Iran is demonstrably adhering to the terms of the deal and has clearly paused its underground enrichment activities.

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anti-Semitism

The anti-Semitism algorithm

The White House argues that it is committed to stamping out anti-Semitism in America – on campuses especially. Absent from the discussion, however, are the roles of China, Russia and Iran in fueling Jew-hatred across the US during the height of last year’s student protests and beyond. Organizations in Beijing, Moscow and Tehran have been secretly supporting protests in New York, waging covert online campaigns and cyberattacks and manipulating algorithms to help make Americans more anti-Semitic and to fan discord and violence. These dictatorial regimes have no genuine interest in the rights of any victims in the Middle East. Despite their supposed support of Palestinians, Russia and China have slaughtered and oppressed Muslims when it suits them in Chechnya, Crimea and Xinjiang.

How Biden became Trump’s useful political milksop

It turns out that Joe Biden is one of the best things ever to happen to Donald Trump. Sure, Trump was so peeved by his loss to Biden in 2020 that he inspired an abortive insurrection against Congress, but his defeat gave him a grace period of four years to prepare for a fresh term. If the rapidity with which he is upending the federal government is anything to go by, Trump benefited immensely from his protracted exile in Mar-a-Lago, not to mention the welter of court cases, federal and state, that he endured. Now Trump is exploiting Biden once more to provide a further fillip to his political fortunes.

What to do about Iran?

China is surely America’s most dangerous threat over the medium term, but Iran is surely the most dangerous right now. The Islamic Republic would be even more dangerous if the Israelis had not decimated the Mullah’s deadly “ring of fire,” the proxy forces across the Middle East funded, armed, trained, and directed by Tehran. But removing these proxies (all except the Houthis in Yemen) does not remove Iran’s nuclear threat. That threat now faces the Trump administration and Netanyahu’s coalition in Israel, leaving only difficult choices. To understand the current problems, we need to grasp a series of fundamental issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. • What are Iran’s objectives?

Fordow

Iran is feeling emboldened

After the cautious optimism of the early rounds of US-Iran talks, and Donald Trump’s Gulf roadshow, the US government has claimed that Israel is preparing for a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, a parallel piece of political theatre to the ongoing talks between US and Iranian negotiators.  This is nothing new. B-52 bombers and Israeli fighter jets have been rehearsing this for the past few months, and many years before that. This is some very public cold water being poured on the talks, just as they set to advance to the complicated bit. Aware that there is every chance the talks may not progress beyond these thorny rounds, both sides are preparing the ground for that failure.

Mullahs

Trump has no appetite for a second-term war

Now more than ever, Donald Trump appears to be channeling his inner Lord Palmerston. It was the 19th-century prime minister, after all, who went down in the history books for his declaration that England had no permanent enemies or allies. Generations of statesmen have recited that gelid precept, but Trump is one of the few who actually seems prepared to act upon it. Speaking in Riyadh, he implored Iran – the longtime bugbear of Washington hawks, including Trump’s defenestrated national security advisor Mike Waltz – to strike out upon a new course, vowing that there are no “permanent enemies” for America.

saudi arabia trump war

A mammoth 100 days of Trump’s America First foreign policy

One hundred days into the second Donald Trump presidency, his presence in the Oval Office represents the largest sea change in US foreign relations since the end of the Cold War.  Within the space of fewer than four months, Trump has forced Ukraine to deal with reality, by delivering hard truths about what ending the war will require. He has deployed J.D. Vance to shock the international system, with tough messages to our allies in Europe and Asia. Trump’s declaration of a litany of cartels as foreign terror organizations has kicked off a redirection of our relationship with Mexico, Panama and the Western hemisphere. His close relationship with Israel, a clear break with Joe Biden’s approach, has shifted expectations for the Middle East.

foreign

What’s going on in the Pentagon?

In the past two days, three senior Defense Department officials have been suspended and one has resigned. Their departures are apparently connected to an internal investigation into "recent unauthorized disclosures of national security information." On Tuesday, Dan Caldwell, who has been working closely with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Darin Selnick, the Defense Department’s deputy chief of staff, were escorted from their office by guards. Then, yesterday, Colin Carroll, chief of staff to Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg, was ousted, too. John Ullyot, a top Pentagon spokesman, also announced he was resigning.All four men are military veterans.

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