Iran

Wednesday

Tim Shipman

‘Whose side are you on?’: How Keir Starmer alienated Britain’s allies over Iran

The American-Israeli attacks on Iran were publicly called Epic Fury, but behind the scenes it is Britain’s handling of the war which provoked that reaction – not just from Donald Trump but from the UK’s allies in the Gulf. A Labour peer was in Washington when the first missiles slammed into Tehran on Friday evening and Keir Starmer refused to voice support. A member of the Trump administration told the peer: ‘Britain used to not contribute that much, but you were a good ally. Now you’re contributing nothing and you’re not even a good ally.’ A version of events has quickly become established: a Prime Minister with a near-religious belief in international law hid behind the advice of his Attorney General, Richard Hermer, that the attacks were illegal.

Geoffrey Cain

The greater game: Trump’s ultimate target in this war is China

The United States and Israel killed Ayatollah Khamenei, and Xi Jinping’s decade-long project to build an alternative to the American-led order died with him. The view in Beijing has been that the West is declining. Xi built his foreign policy on that premise For years, Beijing quietly assembled a network of dictatorships and client states designed to blunt American power. Iran supplied China with cheap oil and kept Washington bogged down in the Middle East. Russia waged war on Ukraine with Chinese materiel support, a gamble that was supposed to cement a powerful anti-western axis but has instead bled Moscow into dependence on Beijing. Regional proxies from Lebanon to Gaza added just enough chaos to stop Washington focusing on China.

Freddy Gray

Operation Epic Fury is already tearing the MAGA movement apart

When President George W. Bush invaded Mesopotamia in 2003, everybody laughed at Comical Ali, the bespectacled Iraqi information minister who kept insisting that the American ‘rats’ were doomed as Saddam Hussein’s regime collapsed around him. The world moved on. Iran is not Iraq, as President Donald Trump’s supporters are so fond of saying, and Bush-era ‘forever wars’ are no more. Plus, these days the comedy communications come from the American Commander-in-Chief. At the weekend, as missiles rained across the Middle East, Trump’s cabinet officials mostly avoided attention-grabbing interviews. The boss, however, embarked on his own heroic PR campaign.

Rod Liddle

Won’t someone please think of Dubai’s influencers?

The human spirit is incredibly resilient really. Even in the depth of our concern over the Israeli-American war against Iran, the worry about what might come next, we can still find time to feel a warm and comforting sense of schadenfreude over the large number of British women with stapled-on lips who are cowering in their Dubai apartments as the Iranian shells come raining down. The name under which these women collectively labour is ‘influencer’, a term which, like ‘content creator’ is close to meaningless and both could be usefully replaced by ‘shitgibbon’ or ‘unemployable’. We laugh at their sense of entitlement, their shock that the real world has intruded upon their private Idaho You do not know these people, any of them, I suspect.

Isabel Oakeshott

I love Dubai. Get over it

I am in Dubai where we are doing our best to keep calm and carry on. Granted, the sudden instruction to ‘seek immediate shelter’ in the early hours of Sunday morning was unnerving, but with the exception of excitable ‘influencers’, few people are cowering in their basements. On Saturday evening, I’d hotfooted it to the Palm Jumeirah. When my kids told me the Fairmont hotel had been hit, I didn’t believe them. The idea that the mad mullahs would start lashing out in this direction seemed completely absurd. Though the Emiratis take a far dimmer view of Islamic extremism than our own craven British government, they are careful not to upset ‘brotherly’ neighbours. The UAE has prospered precisely because of this strategic restraint. Surely some mistake?

Charles Moore

Tracey Emin should remake her bed

Sir Keir Starmer’s position on the US bombing of Iran is inglorious, but one should suspend disapproval to understand how he must have been thinking politically. His party had just lost the Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens (backed by a strong Muslim vote). His leadership had never seemed weaker. So he calculated that he could not unequivocally back the actions of Israel and Donald Trump. He will have had the Iraq war in mind, particularly the role of the attorney general. Over Iraq, the then attorney general, Lord Goldsmith, was criticised for seeming to change his legal advice to Tony Blair in order to legitimise British participation in the invasion. Sir Keir’s Attorney General, Lord Hermer, is much more central to the administration than an AG ever should be.

Owen Matthews

Will Turkey intervene in Iran?

From our US edition

With the exception so far of a single missile intercepted over Turkish airspace and a strike on an Azeri-controlled territory near the Iranian border, Tehran has so far declined to mess with the Turks, and for good reasons. Turkey is a member of NATO and attacking it would trigger Article 5 mutual defense measures. And it is NATO’s leading member, the United States, which is attacking Iran in the first place. A more serious restraining factor is Turkey’s own large and highly effective army – and its proven willingness to use it against weakened neighbors. Over recent decades Ankara hasn’t hesitated to send troops and launch bombing raids into both Syria and Iraq, occupying border regions when it decides that Turkey’s internal security is threatened.

Douglas Murray

If only Britain was as important as Iran thinks we are

I am becoming rather fond of Prime Minister Starmer’s major foreign policy announcements. In early January, after US forces swooped into Venezuela and took President Maduro to New York to face trial, Keir Starmer was keen to get straight out in front of the cameras. There he said that he wanted to stress that ‘the UK was not involved in any way in this operation’. As though the whole world had been expecting to hear that the British armed forces were indeed central in snatching the narco-terrorist from Caracas. This week it was again Starmer’s turn to stand behind a podium, British flags behind him, and deliver another statement that absolutely no one thought necessary. Speaking about the US-led strikes on Iran, he announced solemnly: ‘I want to set out our response.

Matthew Parris

Is this Starmer’s finest hour?

A friend met Mary Wilson on the Isles of Scilly, where she and her husband, Harold, had a home. She confided in him that Harold, now in the grip of senile dementia, was slipping away from her; and she felt the lonelier because in the eyes of the world his achievements as prime minister were slipping away as well. My friend rehearsed with her the list: the Open University, etc. Then he added this: there is a kind of achievement in high office which by its very nature is unlikely to burn brightly in the world’s imagination after a leader has gone, but is no less luminous for being forgotten. I mean (he said) declining to do something foolish. On behalf of our country (he said), your husband politely declined Washington’s invitation to join the Vietnam war.

Justin Marozzi

Iran’s tradition of martyrdom is key to understanding this conflict

One word stood out in the florid and overwrought announcement of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader by a tearful state-television newsreader on 1 March: ‘Leader and Imam of the Muslims, His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, on the path of upholding the exaltation of the sacred sanctuary of the Islamic Republic of Iran, drank the sweet, pure draft of martyrdom and joined the Supreme Heavenly Kingdom.’ The dreaded ‘m’ word – martyrdom – immediately takes anyone familiar with Muslim history back to a legendary 7th-century battlefield in central Iraq. In 680, the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson Husayn ibn Ali – regarded as the third Shia imam – faced a much larger army commanded by the Umayyad caliph Yazid I at the Battle of Karbala.

Peter Jones

Greek tips on how to beat Iran

In 500 BC, Persia (modern Iran) was the most powerful state in the known world, ruling an area of more than two million square miles from the Balkans and Egypt to central Asia (nearly half of the world’s population). In 499 BC, Athens and a number of other Greek states rebelled against its empire and incredibly defeated it in the ensuing Persian Wars (390-379 BC). The Greek historian Herodotus (d. c. 425 BC) wrote up those wars after travelling extensively around the whole region. He was as fascinated by different cultures as he was by the war itself, contrasting the Persian way of life with the Greek. For example, he said that Persians did not put up statues or temples or altars, or treat their gods as human in nature, as the Greeks did.

John Jenkins

Iranian attacks aren’t worrying Washington

Many commentators are already claiming that the war with Iran is “spiraling out of control.” I try not to be uncharitable: I am a Catholic, after all, and the Church tells me it is a sin. But if I were tempted, I should say that the only thing spiraling out of control is cliché. You could argue that drone attacks are a sign that Iran’s ballistic and cruise missiles aren’t actually proving that effective Iran said it would hit out wildly if it were attacked. It also made clear that direct attacks on the leadership of the Islamic Republic would be treated as an existential threat.

Tuesday

Cockburn

President Trump’s game of telephone

From our US edition

How are you “monitoring the situation,” four days into the joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran? Our Commander-in-Chief has adopted an unorthodox approach: evading the press in person as the strikes and counterstrikes fall, while taking phone calls from basically any journalist with his personal number. By Cockburn’s count, President Trump has given at least 20 “exclusive” telephone interviews to reporters since the early hours of Saturday morning. Old habits die hard. The starting gun was fired by the Washington Post’s Natalie Allison and Tara Copp at 4 a.m., three hours after the bombs started to hit. “All I want is freedom for the people,” Trump told them. Since then, he’s offered a variety of other reasons for US involvement.

telephone
David Loyn

Chaos in Iran spells trouble for the Taliban

The US-Israeli attack on Iran presents an opportunity to get rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan. If there is a collapse of central authority in Iran, tens of thousands of Afghan former soldiers living in exile there could use the power vacuum to mobilize, return home and fight against the Taliban. There are several resistance groups who have advanced plans to fight but need a reliable haven outside the country to launch attacks inside Afghanistan. Iran, which has a 600-mile border with the country, could be the launchpad they need. This represents a unique opportunity for Afghanistan, as for the first time the country faces conflict on both sides.

Monday

Freddy Gray

Will Iran descend into civil war?

33 min listen

Freddy is joined by historian and former diplomat, Charlie Gammell. They discuss the situation in Iran, whether the US is heading for a decisive confrontation, and examine the regional consequences: proxy warfare, Gulf energy security, Pakistan’s delicate position, and migration pressures on Europe.

Will Iran descend into civil war?
Roger Kimball

When will Kash Patel unleash epic fury on the FBI?

From our US edition

As I write, the Washington Post is carrying an obituary about the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – or maybe it is about Santa Claus? You tell me. “With his bushy white beard and easy smile,” the Democracy Dies in Darkness paper told its readers,  “Ayatollah Khamenei cut a more avuncular figure in public than his perpetually scowling but much more revered mentor [Khomenei], and he was known to be fond of Persian poetry and classic western novels, especially Victor Hugo’s Les Misérables... Some Iranians who knew Ayatollah Khamenei before he became supreme leader described him as a ‘closet moderate.’” Did they now? Many other Iranians, some say about 250,000, did not have a chance to describe him at all because they were murdered on his orders.

Sunday

Stephen Daisley

International law should not prevent regime change in Iran

Liberal supporters of the US-Israeli killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are straining to parry the charge that Operation Epic Fury is illegal. They say that Washington and Jerusalem are returning fire in a continuing war initiated by Iran, which has funded proxy terror organisations to target Americans and Israelis. It’s a good try but once you kill a country’s head of state in a targeted bombing, it’s hard to claim regime change wasn’t the object of the exercise.  If international law says Khamenei should still be in place, maybe international law deserves to be detonated along with him Customary international law, as commonly understood, does not permit the violation of another state’s sovereignty to change its government by force.

Iran islamic republic
Jason M. Brodsky

Who will lead Iran now?

From our US edition

The longest-serving autocrat in the Middle East, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is dead. This is a historic moment for the Iranian people, the region, America, and US allies and partners around the world. Given the unprecedented nature of this US and Israeli military operation, it remains hard to predict events in Iran. But several developments give us clues about Iran's direction of travel in the near-term. Khamenei was a brutal ruler who not only abused his people and fomented terror around the world but was also a tyrant to his own family. His estranged sister Badri Khamenei once recounted how Qassem, a good friend of her brother, was murdered by the Iranian regime in the early years of the Islamic Revolution.

Charlie Gammell

Could Iran descend into civil war?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a man whose life has been defined by the harshness of his rhetoric against the West (specifically, the US and Israel) and his ruthless rule, has died a martyr’s death under the rubble of his compound in Pasteur, Tehran.  It was always going to end this way. Khamenei came to prominence as a revolutionary first and then second as a wartime leader when he assumed the role of President of Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. What is needed is a clear plan that can unite Iranians behind a shared, inclusive vision of their country The Islamic Republic is facing its most serious crisis since January, when it set about killing its way out of nationwide protests.

Charlie Gammell

Could Iran descend into civil war?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a man whose life has been defined by the harshness of his rhetoric against the West (specifically, the US and Israel) and his ruthless rule, has died a martyr’s death under the rubble of his compound in Pasteur, Tehran.  It was always going to end this way. Khamenei came to prominence as a revolutionary first and then second as a wartime leader when he assumed the role of President of Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. What is needed is a clear plan that can unite Iranians behind a shared, inclusive vision of their country The Islamic Republic is facing its most serious crisis since January, when it set about killing its way out of nationwide protests.