Eu

If I were in charge of Leave, here’s what I’d say…

It may be too late. But with only about three weeks before our referendum on EU membership I am itching to take the leadership of the Leave campaign. I could do them a power of good. Two serious objections may be raised to my bid. First, I couldn’t chair a parish meeting, let alone a snakepit of warring Leave enthusiasts. Secondly, I certainly don’t think Britain should leave the European Union. Setting these disqualifications aside, however, as a former speechwriter and politician I see so clearly the strategic direction the Leave campaign should set if they are to stand an outside chance of winning — and a much greater chance of losing with honour. I find myself barking advice at the radio whenever one of them is on.

Warning: top-performing funds are highly likely to contain tobacco

Axa will no longer invest in the tobacco industry: the French insurance giant will sell €184 million of shares and gradually reduce its €1.6 billion bond holdings in the sector. No surprise, given Axa’s role as a health insurer and the oft-repeated statistic that smoking kills six million people a year; indeed, you might think any health-related investor would have taken the decision years ago. Except that cigarette-makers have been stellar stock market performers since the beginning of the century: British American Tobacco’s shares have multiplied in value a dozen times while paying rich dividends, and Imperial Tobacco (now Imperial Brands) has been almost as good.

Hilton: Brexit would be the crowning achievement of Tory modernisation

In a speech to Policy Exchange today, Steve Hilton—David Cameron’s former senior adviser—will make the case that ‘any intellectual rigorous examination makes it impossible for a Tory moderniser to support staying in the EU’. He argues that Tory modernisation was about trusting people, and that the EU does not; that modernisation was about localism, and that the EU is inherently centralising; and that the EU helps the rich and not the rest. I think there’s much to be said for Hilton’s analysis. (Though, of course, it should be recognised that there are Tory modernisers on both sides of the argument.) But where Hilton is surely right is that the EU is not the future, it is an idea of its time—the late 20th century.

Today in audio: Fallon says Putin would ‘Vote leave’

Vladimir Putin's name has popped up again in the Brexit debate. This time, however, it wasn't the Prime Minister suggesting that the Russian president would favour Britain leaving the EU, but the Defence Secretary. Michael Fallon said Putin would 'Vote Leave' and he also told a Commons select committee that 'there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that a British exit from the European Union would be applauded in Moscow'. He added that it would be a 'payday for Putin': Michael Fallon went on to say that being in the EU ensured that Russia had 'paid the price' for its intervention in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister gave a speech in which he said Brexit could ramp up the cost of a family holiday. But where was he planning on heading off to on his own summer trip?

So what if Brexit briefly raises the cost of a family holiday, Prime Minister?

Nicola Sturgeon urged the Government yesterday to lay off the ‘Project Fear’ strategy and instead focus on spelling out the positive reasons for remaining in the EU. Unfortunately, it seems it’ll take the Prime Minister some time to heed that advice. Cameron will warn today that Brexit would ramp up the price of a holiday. He’ll argue later that: ‘The choice facing the British people on 23 June is increasingly clear: the certainty and economic security of remaining in the EU, or a leap in the dark that would raise prices – including the cost of a family holiday. All the evidence points to the value of the pound falling after a vote to leave the EU. A weaker pound means people’s hard-earned savings won’t go as far on holidays overseas.

Tony Benn on the 1975 referendum

This letter from Tony Benn to his constituents was written in 1975 and published in The Spectator.  In 1975 you will each have the responsibility of deciding by vote whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Common Market: or whether we should withdraw completely, and remain an independent self-governing nation. That decision, once taken will almost certainly be irreversible. In both the 1974 general elections I fully supported our manifesto commitment on the handling of the Common Market question. The present Government is now engaged in renegotiating the terms of entry along the lines set out in those Manifestos and is solemnly pledged, whatever the Outcome of those negotiations, to see to it that the final decision will be taken by the British people.

Catholic bishops split over Brexit as Archbishop accuses Osborne of ‘ludicrous’ scaremongering

Archbishop Peter Smith, the Catholic Archbishop of Southwark – whose diocese covers all of London south of the Thames – has accused George Osborne of 'ludicrous' scaremongering in the EU referendum. The Archbishop, talking to Vatican radio, does not explicitly say that he supports Brexit. His line is that he is 'undecided how to vote'. But according to my sources, in private he has been telling 'anyone who cares to listen' that he favours the Out campaign. 'It seems that Peter Smith wants to leave the EU – he's made that very clear,' a Catholic bishop tells me. Here's an extract from the Catholic Herald report on Smith's interview.

Boris hits back in Brussels banana row. But has he got his facts right this time?

Boris has hit back in the row over whether Brussels tells Brits what types of bananas we can eat. Last week, he was accused of 'making it up as he went along' after claiming that the European Union prevented the fruit from being sold in bunches of more than 'two or three'. But instead of being quiet about them today, Boris has used his Brexit battlebus stop in York to insist that Brussels does meddle with our bananas. As Isabel Hardman reports, the former Mayor decided to take on those who had ridiculed him about his claims regarding EU control over bananas. He said he had looked into it and there were actually ‘four directives on bananas, including a directive on the curvature of bananas.’ So, is he telling the truth?

On the EU campaign trail with Boris

Boris Johnson is on the Vote Leave campaign trail in York this morning, and has just addressed a medium-sized crowd in the city centre. Unlike some of the election rallies that we saw last year, there were some real members of the public attending - and a chap who had turned up to egg he former Mayor, but didn't manage to. Boris turns to the chap who had brought an egg to throw at him and tells him people are going hungry pic.twitter.com/z6Wfl7eRwD— Isabel Hardman (@IsabelHardman) May 23, 2016 Afterwards, the failed egger claimed he had never intended to throw the egg, but had just brought it along to 'cause a scene', which rather made it sound as though the egg itself had been threatening to run amok in the square.

David Cameron’s former adviser Steve Hilton backs Brexit

Although David Cameron is keen to suggest of late that the dubious bunch backing Brexit includes Vladimir Putin and Isis, he may have more trouble brushing aside the latest figure to support Leave. The Prime Ministers former director of strategy Steve Hilton has penned an article for the Daily Mail in which he reveals why Britain 'must' quit the EU. Hilton -- who is one of Cameron's closest friends -- says the UK is ‘literally ungovernable’ as a democracy while it remains in the EU: ‘I believe it is [about] taking back power from arrogant, unaccountable, hubristic elites and putting it where it belongs – in people’s hands.’ Hilton also takes aim at the results of Cameron's renegotiation.

The Treasury dishes up more Brexit fearmongering. Will it work?

It’s now exactly one month until the EU referendum and the Treasury has marked the moment with another economic warning about the consequences of Brexit. The analysis out today claims that walking away from the European Union would kick-start a year-long recession. Brexit would also lower the country’s economic growth down by 3.6 per cent, according to the analysis. Although George Osborne must be nearing the point of running out of words to describe the economic ramifications of Brexit, in an article in the Daily Telegraph, Osborne and Cameron had this to say: ‘It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy. The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.

Labour’s attempt to get on first-name terms with voters backfires

Oh dear. Spare a thought for whichever bright spark at Labour HQ is responsible for today's email on the EU referendum. The message -- which has been sent out to party supporters -- asks voters to help Labour campaign to remain in the EU. To do this, they are keen to take the personal approach -- inviting readers to share the reasons they will be voting In. The email also urges recipients to donate money. Alas, a technical glitch means that the email has struck the wrong chord with would-be supporters. Instead of individually addressing each email to the recipient by name, all the emails begin with 'Dear Firstname': A second email has since been sent out presumably with the aim of correcting the technical blunder. Alas, this email also begins 'Dear Fristname'.

The Boris, Cameron ruck over EU

David Cameron and Boris Johnson are the two biggest beasts in the Tory jungle. But they are currently involved in an increasingly undignified scrap over Brexit. As I say in The Sun today, it is hard to see how it ends well for both of them or the Tory party.  As one Cabinet Minister lamented to me recently, ‘it is a personal fight’ between Cameron and Boris and that ‘the Conservative party is on a hiding to nothing.’ Boris and Brexit is the itch that Cameron can’t resist scratching. When Iain Dale asked him about Boris going Out, Cameron—in effect—accused the former Mayor of putting his personal ambition ahead of the national interest which is about the most serious charge you can make of a politician.

The bookmakers are giving up on the chances of Brexit

The EU referendum is only weeks away and while the pollsters aren't offering much certainty about the result, on the betting markets it's a different story. Bookies have seen a very substantial swing toward Remain over the last few days. The odds on the UK staying in Europe have collapsed from 1/3 last week to 1/5 today. This shows that the chances of Brexit are now at a new low of just 21 per cent compared to the giddy heights of 40 per cent at the end of 2015. On balance, the polls have probably been better for Remain recently, but there's still a lot of variance, with some surveys still showing Leave ahead. However, the betting public can only see one result: with more than nine pounds out of every ten wagered at Ladbrokes over the last month being staked on a Remain victory.

This luvvies’ letter warning against Brexit isn’t worth the paper it’s written on

Politicians from across the spectrum have had their say on Brexit. So, too, have various business leaders. Spy chiefs have spoken out. And even Ian Botham has chipped in to spell out his opinion on the EU referendum. So it was probably just a matter of time before the luvvies did the same. And today they’ve done just that: Jude Law, Keira Knightley and Benedict Cumberbatch are amongst some 300 actors and musicians who have backed the call for Britain to stay in the EU. In a letter, put together by Britain Stronger in Europe, they urged Britain not to become ‘an outsider shouting from the wings’.

Barometer | 19 May 2016

Name check 306 business people signed a letter to the Daily Telegraph saying that Britain would be better off outside the EU. Some notable collections of signatures: — 364 economists signed a Times letter about the dangers of monetarism in 1981. — 5,154 physicists signed a paper in Physical Review Letters last year reporting a more accurate recording of the mass of the Higgs boson particle. — 75,000 people signed a petition protesting against the government’s leaflet on why we should vote to stay in the EU. — 540,000 signed a petition demanding a stay of execution for Beau, a Missouri dog accused of killing a duck. — 1m Spaniards signed a petition in 2013 demanding that their government resign. — 2.

Lies, damned lies and…

A Ryanair plane in a Stansted hangar was not the best backdrop for George Osborne’s claim that the economic argument about the European Union is now over and that his ‘consensus’ has prevailed. In recent years, Ryanair has lost its status as the fastest-growing budget airline in Europe: that honour goes to Norwegian Air, which has thrived outside the EU. And on the day of the Chancellor’s speech, a group of Ryanair passengers had announced their intention to take out a lawsuit against the company for what they see as unfair tricks to disguise the true cost of tickets. The Chancellor does the reverse of Ryanair: he tries to frighten us about the imaginary costs and charges of a ticket to Brexit.

Pat Glass calls voter a ‘horrible racist’ while out on the EU campaign trail

In the General Election, a number of Labour supporters defected to Ukip over growing concerns that the party was no longer able to address the issue of immigration. Given that uncontrolled immigration is a big issue in the EU referendum debate, Labour's Remain-ers need to win back trust here. Alas, Pat Glass appears to have done the In camp no favours today while out on the campaign trail. The Shadow Europe Minister described a voter she met on the campaign trail in Sawley, Derbyshire, as a 'horrible racist' after they described a Polish family in the area as 'scroungers'. Speaking to BBC Radio Derby, Glass said: 'The very first person I come to was a horrible racist. I’m never coming back to wherever this is.

What’s making Remain campaigners so tetchy?

Like a lot of keen games-players I’m a stickler for the rules. This is not because I’m an especially honourable person; merely a recognition that without a rigorous structure and a sense of fair play, a game can be no fun and winning can afford no satisfaction. I feel much the same way about politics. Take Hilary Benn’s recent contribution to the Brexit debate, wherein he professed to have taken grievous offence at Boris Johnson’s use of the word ‘Hitler’ in an article about Europe. As was perfectly clear from the context, the reference was dropped in lightly and unhysterically in the service of an unexceptionable point. So the game Benn was playing there definitely wasn’t cricket.